Richmond area is still solidly red and conservative (Chester, Orange: crime, house)

[aquest1]

Originally Posted by Jupiter1162

Where are you seeing Chesterfield blue? Henrico added to the red team. So far it is looking like conservatives did even better in the Richmond area (according to AP):

Chesterfield (leaning red), Henrico (leaning red), Amelia, Prince George, Dinwiddie, Powhatan, Goochland, New Kent, Cumberland and Hanover ALL RED


In the "urban crescent" of Virginia, Richmond region is running the most red -- practically entirely. Hampton Roads is leaning more blue though.

You must be looking at some ginned up map. Try looking at actual returns. Much of the vote that remains outstanding is largely Democratic absentee votes from suburban Henrico and Chesterfield, which went blue. Those votes will likely allow for Spanberger to keep her seat, even if it's by a bare margin. Those other areas you mentioned have significantly less population than the core counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield.

[Jupiter1162]

Updated map does show Henrico and Chesterfield went blue. Hanover and the rest of the Richmond metro red.

But the race was tight.

[Ebck120]

Originally Posted by Jupiter1162

Updated map does show Henrico and Chesterfield went blue. Hanover and the rest of the Richmond metro red.

But the race was tight.

And Henrico & Chesterfield are the two most populous areas of the Richmond metro area meaning the Richmond metro area is/leans blue; Henrico @ 63% and Chesterfield @ 52% voting blue...

[Jupiter1162]

Originally Posted by Ebck120

And Henrico & Chesterfield are the two most populous areas of the Richmond metro area meaning the Richmond metro area is/leans blue; Henrico @ 63% and Chesterfield @ 52% voting blue...

I gave Chesterfield only (50/50) and did not initially think Henrico would go red. But Hanover did go red, which was another toss up in my mind. Everything else stayed reliably red.

Chesterfield is a battleground county, when a less polarizing Republican gets on the presidential ticket it will flip back to red.

[Ebck120]

Originally Posted by Jupiter1162

I gave Chesterfield only (50/50) and did not initially think Henrico would go red. But Hanover did go red, which was another toss up in my mind. Everything else stayed reliably red.

Chesterfield is a battleground county, when a less polarizing Republican gets on the presidential ticket it will flip back to red.

I think you're not taking into consideration the demographic shift that Chesterfield will continue to see as time goes.. and as of today the Richmond suburbs are blue which you said wasn't the case, and its been trending this way.

Originally Posted by Jupiter1162

Everyone loves to talk about how Virginia is changing, how it is a solidly blue state now, yadda yadda yadda. Well, that may be true in parts of the state (like the federally-occupied northern va area) and many of Virginia's cities as well. But that is not the case for the suburban and rural counties in the RVA area.

[Jupiter1162]

Originally Posted by Ebck120

I think you're not taking into consideration the demographic shift that Chesterfield will continue to see as time goes.. and as of today the Richmond suburbs are blue which you said wasn't the case, and its been trending this way.

The demographic shift explained: frustrated Republicans leave their own district that was taken over by Democrats for a new county further out. The Republican policies are a such an economic success that more people move to that county. As more people move in, Democrats frustrated with Democratic policies in the counties they once flipped, start moving into Republican strongholds. The process repeats endlessly as the hordes of unthinking liberals perform their annual migrations kicking Republicans out (and good policies as a result).

Joe Biden is a senile segregationist. How can anyone who purports to care about race can vote for him is beyond me!

[mpier015]

Originally Posted by Jupiter1162

The demographic shift explained: frustrated Republicans leave their own district that was taken over by Democrats for a new county further out. The Republican policies are a such an economic success that more people move to that county. As more people move in, Democrats frustrated with Democratic policies in the counties they once flipped, start moving into Republican strongholds. The process repeats endlessly as the hordes of unthinking liberals perform their annual migrations kicking Republicans out (and good policies as a result).

Joe Biden is a senile segregationist. How can anyone who purports to care about race can vote for him is beyond me!

That's certainly one way to say that you were wrong

[murksiderock]

In Va's Crescent, every city and county voted the same party that they did in '16, besides six places that all flipped from red to blue: Caroline County, Chesapeake city, Chesterfield County, James City County, Stafford County, and Virginia Beach city...

Caroline and Chesterfield are in Central Virginia (Richmond). The three most populous locales in Richmond are Chesterfield, Henrico, and Richmond city, which account for ~70% of the metro's population----->they all went blue, by a combined tune of ~66/32...

Its an abject lie to state that the majority of Richmond is red or conservative or Republican or what have you, when the three most populous areas account for 70% of the population, voted blue by two thirds in total, and each individually went blue...

The ~30% of Central Va's population did go majority red but that is not an accurate depiction of the Richmond area as they do not represent the majority...

[Jupiter1162]

Originally Posted by murksiderock

In Va's Crescent, every city and county voted the same party that they did in '16, besides six places that all flipped from red to blue: Caroline County, Chesapeake city, Chesterfield County, James City County, Stafford County, and Virginia Beach city...

Caroline and Chesterfield are in Central Virginia (Richmond). The three most populous locales in Richmond are Chesterfield, Henrico, and Richmond city, which account for ~70% of the metro's population----->they all went blue, by a combined tune of ~66/32...

Its an abject lie to state that the majority of Richmond is red or conservative or Republican or what have you, when the three most populous areas account for 70% of the population, voted blue by two thirds in total, and each individually went blue...

The ~30% of Central Va's population did go majority red but that is not an accurate depiction of the Richmond area as they do not represent the majority...

I'm willing to give you this win, for this election.

However, with a less polarizing Republican leading the ticket I think the results would've looked a whole lot different. Only time will tell.

My large extended, conservative family will not be leaving the area though. We enjoy it here and have lived here for three decades now. No pushing us out.

[Watchful]

Originally Posted by Jupiter1162

However, with a less polarizing Republican leading the ticket I think the results would've looked a whole lot different. Only time will tell.

Mitt Romney received 1,822,522 votes in 2012.
Trump received 1,769,443 votes in 2016.
So far Trump has received 1,921,900 votes (and counting) in 2020.

I'm a little surprised that being polarizing did not seem to hurt his support, or it did, it was counterbalanced by others who were not supporters in 2016.