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If the local factory closes or the military base closes that housing market will be poor for years. The opposite is true for lakefront property. It will always be in high demand. Mots American towns will see a stable housing market this year due to declining interest rates. The worst of the sub-prime foreclosures is over. That inventory will satisfy the lower price segment of the market this year.
If the local factory closes or the military base closes that housing market will be poor for years. The opposite is true for lakefront property. It will always be in high demand. Mots American towns will see a stable housing market this year due to declining interest rates. The worst of the sub-prime foreclosures is over. That inventory will satisfy the lower price segment of the market this year.
Anyone beg to differ on this statement? What about when the loans reset?
The worst of the sub-prime foreclosures is over. That inventory will satisfy the lower price segment of the market this year.
The worst of the sub-prime foreclosures is not even close to being over we havn't hit the peek of the sub-prime ARM resets. In fact the worst month is this May and has almost three times the number of resets than any month we have seen to this point. Default and then foreclosure process takes 6 months in most states. Meaning that we have probably only seen the restarts up to June or July of last year. May resets are five times the number of any month in 2007. Now the FHA refinance bill passed will help some and the freezing of interest rates will help a few more so I dont think that we will see 3-5 times the foreclosures. But, I think there is a good chance we could see half again as many.
I'd watch for no significant improvement until after the election is over later this year, probabily see upward change in the first quarter of 2009.
The prez bought (or is trying to buy) just enough time for the dam to break after his watch is over.
This government intervention will make the problem far worse. Inflation will run rampant, it'll cost far more to fill one's fridge and heat one's house with an increasingly counterfeit currency. Interest rates will skyrocket once foreign governments refuse to take a pathetic 3.7% yield on our treasuries.
Its very simple. Nationally we still have record amounts of new and resale homes for sale (inventory) on the market. Prices in many markets are still way over historical averages and qualified buyers are hard to come by. Plus the fact many buyers are sitting on the sideline expecting prices to drop even more.
The good news is that housing permits are dropping which means not as many new homes will be added to the market.
Most reasonable people don't expect things to stabilize until 4Q '08 or 1Q '09 the earliest. You still have people and groups (ie NAR) that are delirious enough who believe things will improve after the 1st Quarter in '08....they base their reasoning on one month "upticks" in late '07....amazing.
You know, the US government so far has borowed 3 trillion dollars from China, 1 trillion dollars from Chavez in Venezuela, and 2.5 trillion dollars from Saudi Arabia to help shore up our financial situation.. Plus we're paying billions in interest on top of that back to them. That is why the dollar is going down the tubes. Now if these country's decide to call in their notes...this country goes bankrupt and all heck will break loose.
DYk that foreign investments already own over 20% of the US.
Also the so called free money the country is suppose to get in May is taxable next year and the government in order to fund this gigantic fiasco will have to either borrow more money from other taxes, tax us some other way or print more useless dollars.
Over 50 years ago, China as our enemy at the time, said that they had a lot of patience and would eventually break the US by non violent actions, "economically". Looks as if their prediction is comming true.
Its very simple. Nationally we still have record amounts of new and resale homes for sale (inventory) on the market. Prices in many markets are still way over historical averages and qualified buyers are hard to come by. Plus the fact many buyers are sitting on the sideline expecting prices to drop even more.
The good news is that housing permits are dropping which means not as many new homes will be added to the market.
Most reasonable people don't expect things to stabilize until 4Q '08 or 1Q '09 the earliest. You still have people and groups (ie NAR) that are delirious enough who believe things will improve after the 1st Quarter in '08....they base their reasoning on one month "upticks" in late '07....amazing.
I don't know if I'm supposed to be posting in this general "Real Estate" forum, so forgive me (or ignore me) if I'm lost and don't know my "home".
CJ's got the biggest piece of the puzzle right, IMO. That's the supply & demand issue. LOTS of supply - not so much demand. I think that aspect of the problem will last (generally, nationally) at least through most of 2008. I think we'll see quite a few more For Sale signs hit the yards along about March. I do think buyer activity is picking up slightly, but we've got a long ways to go before we're down to more normal inventories.
Locally, I think the rust belt will continue to suffer. I don't know if you caught the recent thread about the homeowner in MI who bought her house SIX years ago for $145,000 and it just appraised for $90,000. My heart goes out to her. And just think how many times that scenario is being repeated. Plus that's not the result of crazy price appreciation, or predatory lending, or an irresponsible buyer. That's the result of a bad local economy.
So will more vibrant areas of the country bounce back by next year? Time will tell. People will migrate to where the jobs are and where the local economy is healthy.
Although a price correction is needed in some parts of the country, it may not happen as severely as some think. Almost the reverse of the MI situation above. It's not always about what goes up must come down. Areas with the jobs and a healthy economy where people don't have to sell in order to move elsewhere to find a job may not suffer so much. However, I think the effects of the mass exodus out of areas with depressed economies will take a toll. As more people are forced to just walk away from homes in those areas, the impact will be felt nationally (if not globally). Check out this video - preferably not before going to bed (if you want to sleep ) Mortgage Meltdown -- American Capitalism at its Worst - Articles
My feeling is the current mortgage/real estate/general economic situation will have some very long lasting effects.
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