How Many More Agents Will Call It "Quits" in 2009? (foreclosures, MLS)
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If you're an agent in a "hard hit" area (not one that's just a year into the slowdown as some are), what are you seeing as far as agents renewing their license/association affiliation?
For the first couple of years here (late 2006 and 2007) we saw a few agents drop out. Then this past year (2008) we've been seeing quite a few get fulltime jobs in other fields. Now, as we near the renewal deadline, I'm hearing of more and more not renewing the $400+ association dues. A few that have other careers now are still keeping their license active for now (since they have a "regular" 9-5 job, they're the ones that can afford to pay the dues ), but I'm starting to see even previously successful agents bite the dust.
So many said/thought at the outset when we had a superabundance of agents that we'd see many quit after that first year of slowdown. For the most part, that didn't happen. But now that my market area has finished the leanest year in over a decade, things are changing.
. . . So I'm curious - is this phenomenon local or is it widespread?
Our MLS has lost 10% of its membership since the start of the year. With our current sales volume vs. agents, if all things were equal, each agent would have closed 5 transaction sides this year. With out average home price that's only $26,000 a year BEFORE expenses (assuming a 70/30 split).
Our licenses run for two years out here, so I fully expect another 10-20% drop in our MLS membership as people don't want to pay to have their license renewed. It's around $350 for that, plus $45 a month for MLS dues.
I have also seen some long standing agents retire. Most of the foreclosures that I see for real estate agents are the 3-5 year agents that bought a house way to expensive for such a short stint of income. Most of our seasoned agents seem to be holding their own so far.
Silverfall - it appears you guys are in a little bit better shape than we are. We really had an oversaturation of agents here. Right now, looking at the residential sales for 2008 (land sales were close to non-existant) it works out to 1-1/2 sales per active agent! With a median home price of around $220k, obviously a lot of agents are going hungry this year. Of course that old 80/20 rule applies, so evidentally there are a LOT of agents here that did not have one sale all year long!
What's curious, though, is that the ones that are leaving the business are not necessarily those agents but rather seem to be some of the higher producing agents that just aren't able to reach their sales goals and are giving up. Apparently many of the part-timers are still hanging around - I guess because any sale they might happen to make is just a little somethin' extra. Problem is, that's one deal that the guys trying to make a living at this don't get.
Silverfall - it appears you guys are in a little bit better shape than we are. We really had an oversaturation of agents here. Right now, looking at the residential sales for 2008 (land sales were close to non-existant) it works out to 1-1/2 sales per active agent! With a median home price of around $220k, obviously a lot of agents are going hungry this year. Of course that old 80/20 rule applies, so evidentally there are a LOT of agents here that did not have one sale all year long!
What's curious, though, is that the ones that are leaving the business are not necessarily those agents but rather seem to be some of the higher producing agents that just aren't able to reach their sales goals and are giving up. Apparently many of the part-timers are still hanging around - I guess because any sale they might happen to make is just a little somethin' extra. Problem is, that's one deal that the guys trying to make a living at this don't get.
Sheesh 1.5 sales per agent...Yuck!
It will be interesting to see what happens here. We tend to lag behind the rest of the nation in trends and our agents are just starting to figure out that we have a tough market here.
We have some agents that have specialized for years in new construction. Need I say more about their situation? I personally would love to see a 50% drop in real estate agents. It would be so much better for the consumers to have those agents more productive so they can really get good at being an agent.
Question...If the agents call it quits for now, can the just get a new license to get back and work as an agent or do they have to take the 64 hours course again?
Location: Mokelumne Hill, CA & El Pescadero, BCS MX.
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I'm not sure how many agents we've lost during the past 2 years in our county, but I'm all for a lot of the rest of them to disappear. Out of 12 local agents at the beginning of last year 3 of them are out. I'm happy to say the past 3 days have been over the top here, 3 offers written, a couple of "hot" prospects and a few folks we've been working with over the past couple of months are still circling.
Bentlebee
In CA an agent can place their license into inactive status for 2 years without having to retake the test and start from scratch.
Question...If the agents call it quits for now, can the just get a new license to get back and work as an agent or do they have to take the 64 hours course again?
The requirements probably vary from state to state, but here in AZ they would be required to catch up their continuing ed (if they kept their license as "inactive"). I'm not sure, but after a certain length of time they may be required to go through the re-licensing process again.
I really don't expect too many to get back into the business once they leave. Most who get into this business have no idea of the time and expense involved, plus the uncertainty of when/if your next paycheck will arrive. Now that the "good times" are gone and agents find other steady, good paying jobs, I think they'll be very reluctant to start over again in real estate. The market would have to really pick up substantially again before they'd be willing to give up that job security. And, from all indications, we may never see the "hot" market with investors falling over themselves to purchase a fixer. I think the turn around will be very gradual, and we'll return to a sanity that was missing for a few years. I see a "normal" market for at least a decade, and many agents aren't willing to stay in the business for a "normal" income.
That number is about .20 sales per agent, in my area. The majority of agents in my office did not cover their costs, this past year. Having said this, there are very few agents who are the sole providers for their households and so, it's quite possible that they will remain in the business.
That number is about .20 sales per agent, in my area. The majority of agents in my office did not cover their costs, this past year. Having said this, there are very few agents who are the sole providers for their households and so, it's quite possible that they will remain in the business.
Okay...I'd better quit my whining to my friends about the over abundance of agents we have here. 5 sales per agent is starting to sound downright profitable compared to you guys...
In Tampa Bay, board membership is down 16% over last year. Our renewals are in November, so I don't expect that number will vary much again until late next year.
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), but I'm starting to see even previously successful agents bite the dust. 
With a median home price of around $220k, obviously a lot of agents are going hungry this year. Of course that old 80/20 rule applies, so evidentally there are a LOT of agents here that did not have one sale all year long! 
