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What's interesting is the price points in which the sales are dropping.
Sales above $250K are down 9%.
Sales $200-249K are down 11%.
Sales $160-199K are down 21%.
26% of homes sold in November were on the market 30 days or less.
There's still a lot of activity - it's just down from 2006, which was the peak year in a steady 5 year climb, and the price points that are down the most are the entry level, where
A. loans are harder to get now and
B. fewer investors are looking for second or third homes.
Looks like there was another double digit dip in existing homes sold
I just want to clarify (since I'm a numbers geek!) that the 16% drop is an annual # and is not intended to be added to last month's numbers. The 16% dip is in existing home sales comparing November 2007 to November 2006. When the article mentions that this is the "...third straight month of double digit declines," it doesn't mean that there has been a 30%+ decline in the past three months, instead it means in each of the last three months when comparing existing homes sales in the same 2007 to same month 2006 there has been a double digit percentage decline.
The Triangle Business Journal reported in October that September 2007 existing home sales were 24% down from September 2006 existing home sales. October 2007 existing home sales were 14% lower than what occured in October 2006. November saw a 16% year over year decrease. It's probably too premature to suggest that the 14% and 16% of the past two months are a positive trend from September's 24%, we'll have to wait and see.
It seems that the media can print whatever they choose nowadays. (BIG SIGH)
Last weeks' warmer temps brought out 3 new BUYERS for me! Hey peeps...its Christmas...lets all take a break!
The media plays with the numbers as does the NAR and everyone else. Half the time I'm not sure WHAT they are saying!
I read an article about housing the other day and I swear, one sentence said that housing sales were up and in the next sentence it mentioned the "continued slowdown"!
My point is this...no matter if you are a buyer or a seller...the housing market in this area goes by neighborhood. Whereas one neighborhood may be slow in sales, another is going crazy! Forget what you read. Find yourself an experienced Realtor and have her check the comps and listen to what she says about the area and the neighborhood and forget the predictions and the what ifs. On the other hand...wait until after Christmas!!!
The media is just reporting the data provided by the Triangle MLS, that known cabal of ruthless anti-growth real-estate haters :P The data's available to anyone at http://www.trianglemls.com/tmls-stat...y%20Stats~2007.
Sales are down in Nov '07 compared to Nov '05 and '04 (just barely on this last one). Inventory is way (double digit %s) up over Nov '06, '05 and '04 as well. Also, at this pace we're up to 8 months of inventory (using only Nov data), or up to about 6 months if you average the last 6 months of sales rate against the current inventory.
On the plus side, average prices bounced back a bit from last month. Part of this is probably from the observation that lower priced homes are being sold less frequently, pushing the average price of sales up. On the down side, Wake homes are only up 3.6% over last year in nominal dollars, meaning that they are basically flat after accounting for inflation.
Aside from the prices there's not much positive news - and it's hard to say whether higher average selling price means homes are worth more, or just that more expensive homes are selling better. The Dec numbers probably won't tell much since both buyers and sellers tend to take this month off but at least we'll get to see how the yearly sales end up (I'm guessing 2007 will be down 7% compared to 2006, based on the trends so far). Jan - Mar will be the ones to watch ... optimists say that spring is the hot selling season, pessimists will say that inventory numbers here increased steadily all last year, hot selling season or not. Time will tell.
Inventory declined for the first time in 11 months.
Average home prices increased by 6%.
Sure, the market has slowed some. But the sky isn't falling - prices are increasing and homes are being bought. It may take a little longer than a few years ago, but a properly priced home in a good location always seem to sell.
Wait until the new year to list a home. Speaking of the article, its all relative. I am busier now than I was last fall/winter 06. My neighborhood, which usually has a slow fall and winter, two homes were sold in Nov. for 600K+. One was on the market for only 3 days. I was surprised that both these homes sold because of the time of year for this neighborhood and for the fact that they are on the higher end of the range for the neighborhood also.
The quote that homes sales are down in the low price range has some to do with the mortgage market. Alot of people with credit problems, no money to put down and first time homebuyers were not getting mortgages and were not buying.
Perspective is important to keep. Even in the really slow real estate areas around the country homes are still selling. Sometime some will sell faster than other times. Some will get more money for them than others. Sometime it just defies logic. Numbers add validity to statistics and those that keep them, while the right home, the right time and the right cost are subjective measurements and the two rarely ever meet!
Do you buy a house because everyone is buying one? Do you sell a house because everyone is selling one? Do you not buy a house because the trend is showing houses are not selling? I believe the answer is no to each of the questions above. Typically you buy a house because you have a basic need for one. You pay what you believe its worth to YOU.
Looks like there was another double digit dip in existing homes sold
Prices went up 6% and inventory declined. So if sales fell doesn't that mean listings did also?
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Yes and .....
