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I saw a Cheddar video on the topic of why polsters got 2020 wrong and it makes sense. They said it was likely a mix of high turnout and people not answering calls from polsters due to unknown numbers. They said there was just no proof of the shy Trump voter since most Trump voters have their signs in the yard.
And you and Cheddar would be partially wrong. Maybe they should actually ask Trump voters. Anytime I got a call from a polster I would tell them I wasn't voting or I was voting for some obscure character.
I knew the poll numbers were incorrect because of folks not willing to admit they would vote for Trump. It's the same reason why they were wrong in 2016.
Stop believing in those polls and you won't have to worry about any of this. And people shouldn't be carrying on about politics at work. It's obnoxious, and can only do more harm than good.
Which ones was he wrong outside the margin of error?? Well?????
Are you serious?
Nate Silver's genius and complex analysis has underperformed the RCP's simple average, which is elementary math.
If you don't know this, you probably watch media that pushes a strong narrative.
Here is me just quickly cross checking the facts.
Ohio
Silver Trump +0.6
Reality +8.2
Iowa
Silver Trump +1.5
Reality +8.2
Texas
Silver Trump +1.5
Reality +5.7
Montana
Silver Trump +6.3
Reality +16.4
Indiana
Silver Trump +10.8
Reality +16.1
Wisconsin
Silver Biden +8.3
Reality +0.6
I could go on. But my point isn't that he is off with margin of errors within states - you brought that up. My point is foolish media sources fawn over his genius poll analysis and how complex it is - when the RCP elementary math of a simple average has been more accurate in almost every year.
I had my job threatened this summer. I got into two Facebook discussions (true discussions, not arguments, at least how I approached them), both on posts on friends’ pages.
In one, in being asked why conservatives had a problem with BLM, I was trying explain that my problem wasn’t with the absolutely true sentiment that black lives matter and are important, but that I had a lot of problems with the organization Black Lives Matter...their opposition to the nuclear family, the lies they tell to further their agenda, their neo-marxist class divisions based on race (oppressors vs. the oppressed, based on skin color). In that discussion I said I thought the willy-nilly defunding and abolishing of police departments was dangerous, and that the answer to police brutality was in increased oversight and regulations. The “friends” I was engaged with called me a racist for that.
In the other, I was stating that I saw the flag and anthem as symbols that should unify us all as Americans, and that the argument from others that protesting during the national anthem “wasn’t about the flag” was specious based on other actions regarding the flag of some people (notably, Kap’s demand that Nike strike the Betsy Ross flag from its merchandise). I argued that if I was wrong, and the protests really weren’t about the flag to the protesters, that there shouldn’t be any problem at all if a white athlete were to stand up, hand over heart, and sing the anthem before a game. That one got me accused of enabling white supremacy and systematic racism.
The next day, my boss pulled me aside and told me that if I valued my job I should stay off of social media (neither he nor anyone I work with would have been able to see these Facebook conversations, as they were with friends from college and high school). So, those were the final times I posted, commented, or even reacted to anything on Facebook.
If such views as I expressed are so extreme that I deserve to be reported to my employer, then you better believe that I play blind, deaf, and dumb when it comes to politics with anyone who knows my real name from now on.
And you and Cheddar would be partially wrong. Maybe they should actually ask Trump voters. Anytime I got a call from a polster I would tell them I wasn't voting or I was voting for some obscure character.
Why wouldn't you commit to formally saying Trump in a poll? You are very Pro-Trump.
Im not pretending to be nice. I am laughing at the cupcakes. Hilarious.
turn about is fare play. we have been laughing at you snowflakes for years.
I do at least appreciate your honesty. I can work with that. what i don't appreciate is the two faced jackals that want us all to be nice to each other now that they won this election. not interested in that.
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