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Nate Silver earned his reputation as a highly respected analyst/pollster after he called the 2008 election accurately. He also was given credit for giving Trump a 30% chance of winning in 2016 while others gave him less than 10% chance.
But what is ignored are his appallingly bad calls and predictions as outlined in the linked article. Here are some excerpts:
“I wonder how much of the Trump Bump is just voters trolling pollsters,” Two Good Reasons Not To Take the Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously — July 16, 2015.
“PREDICTION: Trump won’t be the Republican /nominee.” — Aug. 6, 2015
“Donald Trump is winning the polls and losing the nomination.” — Aug. 11, 2015
“Idea that ‘Trump would win an election today’ also dubious. If election were today, voters would be more informed and news cycle different.” — Dec. 4, 2015
“Trump’s general elex numbers have been terrible since he launched bid. Media barely noticed during 2015 Trumpmania.” — March 29, 2016
“[Idea of Trump being presumptive nominee by mid-May] is delusional. Math doesn’t work.” — April 9, 2016
“Trump has been super unpopular with the November electorate pretty much forever.” — Aug. 16, 2016
“[The] most delusional part of Trump thinking he has a silent majority is how small a fraction of the population he’s even bothering to appeal to.” — Aug. 13, 2016
I am mystified as to how Silver has this status of an oracle of sorts when he has been so wrong ........ also he bragged about his call that Trump had a better chance in 2016 than some guy who said that Hillary had a 99% chance of winning!
Political prognostication and weather forecasting are two of the most difficult jobs in the world. You can project based on current data and trend lines, but you can never allow for the unexpected. We saw a stunning example of this in 2016 when James Comey shot Hillary out of the saddle eleven days before the election.
Nat Silver is among the best and most accurate in the business. If you know of one who can predict the future with 100% accuracy, please let us know who it is. Ditto a weather forecaster.
Nate Silver earned his reputation as a highly respected analyst/pollster after he called the 2008 election accurately. He also was given credit for giving Trump a 30% chance of winning in 2016 while others gave him less than 10% chance.
But what is ignored are his appallingly bad calls and predictions as outlined in the linked article. Here are some excerpts:
“I wonder how much of the Trump Bump is just voters trolling pollsters,” Two Good Reasons Not To Take the Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously — July 16, 2015.
“PREDICTION: Trump won’t be the Republican /nominee.” — Aug. 6, 2015
“Donald Trump is winning the polls and losing the nomination.” — Aug. 11, 2015
“Idea that ‘Trump would win an election today’ also dubious. If election were today, voters would be more informed and news cycle different.” — Dec. 4, 2015
“Trump’s general elex numbers have been terrible since he launched bid. Media barely noticed during 2015 Trumpmania.” — March 29, 2016
“[Idea of Trump being presumptive nominee by mid-May] is delusional. Math doesn’t work.” — April 9, 2016
“Trump has been super unpopular with the November electorate pretty much forever.” — Aug. 16, 2016
“[The] most delusional part of Trump thinking he has a silent majority is how small a fraction of the population he’s even bothering to appeal to.” — Aug. 13, 2016
I am mystified as to how Silver has this status of an oracle of sorts when he has been so wrong ........ also he bragged about his call that Trump had a better chance in 2016 than some guy who said that Hillary had a 99% chance of winning!
Nate Silver is actually a statistician by trade. Originally from big sports he developed sabre metrics that was and is used by the sports media and was very influential to what Bill James brought to MLB.
As far as politics he simply analyzes the past records of pollsters and grades them on accuracy and then makes predications based on those pollsters weighing in how he had graded them. He himself is not and has never been a pollster.
I think at this point he's mostly running a demoralization campaign. He takes poll numbers that are often close and turns them in to wildly lopsided win percentages designed to make it look like the election is already decided and the losing side has no reasonable hope. It's propaganda.
Nate Silver claim to fame is Obama... One time... And they think has magic or something.... He doesn't... He has been wrong many times since...
He gave Trump a fighting chance in 2016 when everyone else was busy asking if it would be a record landslide victory or just a regular landslide victory for Hillary.
He's an honest Nerd. It is one of the best polling aggregates out there...and he will never be completely accurate. He really took alot of heat in 2016 saying.....Hey people Trump is one standard deviation polling error to win this...I am letting you know that right now. This is not an easy profession and his name and reputation are on the line....so do you really think he wants a negative read. Probably not sleeping much right now.
True to form he is saying it again
Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016
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