Polls Are Biased: Trump Will Again Deliver A Stunning Upset (Obama, Michigan)
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The 2016 polls were correct within their margin of error. You don't need to win a majority to win the electoral college.
he 2016 polls had the final RCP polls:
Hillary winning Michigan by 11.6%,
Hillary taking Wisconsin by 7%
Hillary winning Penn by 6%
Trump by 0.6% in Ohio and he won by8%
Hillary wining Florida by 4%
Trump winning Iowa by 3,7% and he won by 9.5%
If the battleground polls are exactly off the way they were in 2016, Trump wins again....I'm convinced the polls are even more biased against Trump in 2020 and he will win in an electoral landslide.
Boy, y'all are really obsessive about that "small hands" thing. You must have some really weirdly persistent pictures in your heads about something else that is putatively small.
It's odd that the author of that article is a PhD who doesn't understand basic statistics (and also seems to not understand the US political system very well).
A 67% chance of winning is not super high. It just means that, in a simulation (likely based on data compiled by machine learning algorithms), Clinton won every 2 out of 3 contests. Certainly not a slam dunk.
An 87% chance of winning is much, much higher, but still not the same as saying this will absolutely be the result.
If Trump wins, none of the models will be wrong because they are saying that it is possible, just not very likely.
This article describes one possibility in which Trump could not lose the initial election, one of the few possibilities based on current data. If you scroll to the end of the article, he has Trump with 260 electoral votes and Biden with 258. If this does happen, Trump does not reach 270 and the election is sent to the House of Representatives to make the decision. The House of Representatives has a Democratic majority and will give the election to Biden.
So, even in this guy's unlikely scenario, Trump does not win the election.
If it gets to the House choosing, I seem to recall that it was 1 vote per delegation, and a majority of delegations (26?) are currently Republican. I don’t see them giving up control, even with a scuffed-up candidate.
I don't see them being that wrong twice in a row. THey likely made some adjustments to how the polls gather information. Biden is also a much stronger candidate than Hilary was, and Trump didn't actually win by many votes last time.
Boy, y'all are really obsessive about that "small hands" thing. You must have some really weirdly persistent pictures in your heads about something else that is putatively small.
"putatively" - that which is reputed to be.
So you think the poster is obsessed over something else of Trump's that has been widely reputed to be small?? Um, . . . okay.
We shall see. Maybe, maybe not. I think there are strong indications this is true, simply because of the masks and lockdowns. Democrats seem oblivious of the fact a strong majority of the people oppose these things, and for biden to run all his campaign ads based off wearing masks, I think that drives away moderates.
Trump needs to perform better in his next debate... allow himself to be coached and act presidential. Acting presidential won't drive his base away.
Face it . Normal people who have a brain want a paycheck they can spend , not the government.. Trump bigger paycheck.
Normal people like cheaper gas such as $2.00 a gallon not $4.00 a gallon. Fracking going away in multiple states will bring our gas prices higher, lost jobs for many , and Biden promised this. End Fracking for oil.
Normal people want to hear the real truth of what is going on in their country. Not made up lies daily brainwashing the masses .
Normal people don't want corrupt people running the government. The Biden crime family will cover up most of what they do to sell out America and we would never know.
Normal people like to have freedom of speech. They don't like censorship hiding truth and covering the corruption.
Normal people want to be able to protect their family with a firearm. Many live far from any police station. They need to protect themselves from the criminals that roam this country looking to kill steal and destroy .
Normal people like police protection to keep the evil people from entering your home or business with evil intentions.
Normal people want those evil people off the streets , not closing jails and getting rid of the police.
Normal people want to live in a safe world with a good job, not harboring criminals in sanctuary cities.
Normal people want the American dream of working hard, getting ahead, living life with freedom of what they can buy, what they can think , what they can say. That is called individual freedom.
Normal people will vote for Donald Trump who stands for the American people. It is not the man. It is the ideology. Trump is a fighter for Americans who want freedom, love this country, love our flag , love our military, love our dedicated police to keep us safe , and love to have buying power with the money that they earned. Not taken away from them by big government entities that squander it on useless wars, harboring criminals, defending illegals for their crimes against Americans, and corrupt politicians lining their pockets with our paycheck monies. Trump 2020
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