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The Trump approval hit a high for 2020 in September. He came in at 50%.
The Rasmussen total is made by using the daily tolls taken during the month. So 50% represents the views of 15,000 likely voters.
There will be about 15M Black voters. Trump got 1.2M votes from that group in 2016. Nowadays the polls are all over the place with 27% being about the average. That means support for Trump by Black voters will go from 1.2M to about 4M. It'll make a difference, and might even make THE difference in places like PA, WI, and MN.
One of the biggest drawbacks with the polling that shows the Democrats having a commanding lead is that if Trump wins, we will see endless attempts to derail his presidency and remove him from office.
This happened after he won the 2016 election ..... it shocked the Democrats who took it for granted that Hillary would win in a landslide. It was very difficult for them to accept that Trump won and so we saw endless accusations of collusion with the Russians by the Trump campaign which the Mueller report pretty much said was unsubstantiated.
The one thing worse than losing an election is losing one that the contender believes is sure thing ...... it creates a level of disbelief that encourages baseless conspiracy theories. Right now, Democrats think the 2020 election is a foregone conclusion ...... they are going to win and the only question is the margin of victory.
Plenty of people will be voting to restore competency to government in the voting booth.
Lol — our county recorder, a life-long “D”, is certainly encouraging votes this year. She has mailed me not one, but two postcards trying to get the lady who used to live at this address to vote by mail. Problem is the lady died ten years ago...
Yeah, nothing funny going on with the mail-in vote.
I dont think their are enough shy voters that will be meaningful....especially since the pollsters are literally being proactive in their models if they see signs of that.
Here is the shy voter you need to be paying attention to. The suburban, exurban, and some rural moms that live in Trump house households and communities that act like they like Trump but are voting Biden....they usually lean Republican but there are signs that aint happening this year.....I'm paying attention to states that have turned purple...NC, Georgia, Ohio, and the big one is Texas. I dont think Texas will turn blue but if Biden keeps the national lead around 9 to 10....don't be surprised. Texas has some of the largest suburbs in the country.
Poll: The Shy Trump Vote Is Bigger This Year...And Who Falls Into This Category Should Terrify Democrats
Wouldn't be surprised.
People are getting "cancelled" - that is, losing friends, missing promotions, even losing their jobs - due to fanatic Democrats not liking what they say or who they vote for. Such reaction is usually reserved for third-world countries and jungle dictatorships. But Democrats have embraced it wholeheartedly.
It's perfectly understandable that, when someone calls claiming to be a poll taker, normal people won't even talk to him any more, and just hang up.
But you can be sure that the normal people WILL vote. They won't be "shy" then.
And that's the "poll" that counts.
Not sure it’s so much a “shy vote” as it is ...
1). Trump Voters don’t get polled as much as Democrats & Leftists
2). Trump Voters are afraid of being outed in some way and then attacked in some way ... lack of Trust
Quote:
Originally Posted by retiredcop111
Democrats protest in the streets. The Republicans protest in the voting booth. The polls are way off.
Election Day is the Poll that counts ... the protests, Riots and threats are just noise.
Quote:
Originally Posted by uhuru
One of the biggest drawbacks with the polling that shows the Democrats having a commanding lead is that if Trump wins, we will see endless attempts to derail his presidency and remove him from office.
This happened after he won the 2016 election ..... it shocked the Democrats who took it for granted that Hillary would win in a landslide. It was very difficult for them to accept that Trump won and so we saw endless accusations of collusion with the Russians by the Trump campaign which the Mueller report pretty much said was unsubstantiated.
The one thing worse than losing an election is losing one that the contender believes is sure thing ...... it creates a level of disbelief that encourages baseless conspiracy theories. Right now, Democrats think the 2020 election is a foregone conclusion ...... they are going to win and the only question is the margin of victory.
WINNER-WINNER
I would add that it’s interesting that the most accurate Polling Company in 2016 is not included in the Real Clear Politics Polling Data ..... even though Real Clear Politics said after the 2016 Election that Trafalgar was the most accurate. The L.A. Times did a Rolling Poll in 2016 that was also accurate and predicted a Trump Victory.
They are not doing that Poll in 2020.
Lol — our county recorder, a life-long “D”, is certainly encouraging votes this year. She has mailed me not one, but two postcards trying to get the lady who used to live at this address to vote by mail. Problem is the lady died ten years ago...
Yeah, nothing funny going on with the mail-in vote.
Same here. Our daughter, who lives with us, is a registered democrat. She's received about five of those mail in voting requests.
Lol — our county recorder, a life-long “D”, is certainly encouraging votes this year. She has mailed me not one, but two postcards trying to get the lady who used to live at this address to vote by mail. Problem is the lady died ten years ago...
Yeah, nothing funny going on with the mail-in vote.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travelassie
Same here. Our daughter, who lives with us, is a registered democrat. She's received about five of those mail in voting requests.
Don't worry... it happens here too. I still get ballots for a roommate that moved to Missouri in 2014... from the same King County elections that was behind the biggest scam in US election history.
I actually just got my voter booklet in the mail yesterday with a notice that ballots will be mailed by the 16th. I'm pretty sure I'll still get one for the ex-roommate like I always do...
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