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Ma Ying-jeou defeated Frank Hsieh, ending Democratic Progressive Party rule over Taiwan. Ma Ying-jeou has proposed opening up better relations with mainstream China than has been acceptable in Taiwan until now. Among his comments:
"From the day we're inaugurated on May 20 we will start work on direct air links,'' Ma told a press conference in Taipei. He's also promised to ease a ban on Taiwan companies investing more than 40 percent of their assets in China, a rule aimed at preventing money and jobs moving away from the island.
"Under my presidency, there will be peace and prosperity across the Taiwan Strait instead of confrontation and tension,'' Ma said in a March 14 interview. He's also pledged to sign a peace treaty with China as a secondary priority behind closer economic ties.
Here is my prediction, Taiwan will have greater influence in changing mainland China than China will have in changing Taiwan. Between Taiwan and Hong Kong, I believe you will see a series of changes evolving mainland China away from a severely managed economy, and a greater acceptance of free markets. This was slowly happening anyway, and this will somewhat accelerate the process and modify the direction.
The big loser in this election in my view, will be Russia. Their ability to continue to influence mainland China economic decisions will wane over time, as Taiwan helps mainland China figure out how to have a more prosperous economy.
I know you have strong favorable feelings for Taiwan vs PRC. Have you been to either? I have Taiwan friends and PRC friends too. It seems to me that China and Taiwan has done nothing but grow closer over the last few decades based on my personal experience.
Greenspan said a month or so ago that he thinks China is the most capitalistic society on the planet or something to that effect. You are right that China is moving to a free market economy, but I think Taiwan will have little impact on China.
Remember, it is the Taiwanese people who have elected this pro China Taiwan relations President which means it is something the Taiwanese want.
Bob, my understanding of both countries results from studying their political and economic structures, and analyzing their economic evolutions. I have been to neither, but have attended discussions with representatives from both countries, and have a rough understanding of their strengths and challenges.
I know that Taiwan has a major issue with historical linkage to China, and that many have relatives in both nations. I also know that much happens between the two economically, but through a rather awkward communications process that forces a pass through Hong Kong.
Economically, over the past couple of decades mainland China has slowly evolved away from a centralized planned economy to one that is more market based, and last year they passed a per capita GDP of $5,000, quite remarkable considering where they were a decade ago. Taiwan has had a fairly free market economy for an extended period of time, and has had significant progress in privatization of sectors which were historically state controlled, such as banking. Taiwan has a per capita GDP of about $30,000, and I believe China would like to learn about how to become more like Taiwan economically.
Bob, my understanding of both countries results from studying their political and economic structures, and analyzing their economic evolutions. I have been to neither, but have attended discussions with representatives from both countries, and have a rough understanding of their strengths and challenges.
I know that Taiwan has a major issue with historical linkage to China, and that many have relatives in both nations. I also know that much happens between the two economically, but through a rather awkward communications process that forces a pass through Hong Kong.
Economically, over the past couple of decades mainland China has slowly evolved away from a centralized planned economy to one that is more market based, and last year they passed a per capita GDP of $5,000, quite remarkable considering where they were a decade ago. Taiwan has had a fairly free market economy for an extended period of time, and has had significant progress in privatization of sectors which were historically state controlled, such as banking. Taiwan has a per capita GDP of about $30,000, and I believe China would like to learn about how to become more like Taiwan economically.
New
Like I said in another post, China has plenty of expertise available to them including expertise from Taiwan. The Chinese are not so backwards. Think Baidu, CITIC, China Petroleum. There is a huge intellectual exchange and plenty of Western consultants have been in China for many decades.
The Per Capita disparity arises because when the Nationalists looted what was left of the state treasure back in 49, they didn't bother to take a few hundred million starving war ravaged uneducated peasants with them who had been thrashed by an inexcusable Japanese occupation. Add to that Mao went literally insane over the 60s and 70s.
Discount again the fact that Taiwan had US backing for a free ride as long as they stood against China. Taiwan also did not have to fight in Vietnam and Korea.
You can't shoot someone in the leg and then ask them why they are limping.
You assume I am negative about mainland China. Actually, I think they have been doing a decent job of moving in the right direction both economically and politically. However, when you see the reaction to areas such as Tibet, the impression it leaves is that they still have quite a way to go.
My main concern though, is the macro economics and military direction of the country. I think this will help put another item between Russia and China.
You assume I am negative about mainland China. Actually, I think they have been doing a decent job of moving in the right direction both economically and politically. However, when you see the reaction to areas such as Tibet, the impression it leaves is that they still have quite a way to go.
My main concern though, is the macro economics and military direction of the country. I think this will help put another item between Russia and China.
No, not negative, but you seem to have this Taiwan glow.
I don't follow your "help put another item between Russia and China." statement.
Another issue to look at is the Taiwan vs mainland cultural difference. The Taiwanese have for decades held a superiority complex. The PRC folks had always been considered lower class. The Nationalists were the banking class and politically fixed class that were able to send their kids to the States for school at the Ivys. There is a little known fraternity called the FF that has existed since 1910 that is based on this exclusive class which excluded the present mainlanders.
Regarding Russia, under Putin they have been regressing (in my view) back to a strong centrally managed economy, with strict controls over production and distribution. This is especially true concerning natural resources.
If China accelerates their movement towards a market based economy, and continues to rapidly grow their production capacity, the constriction on natural resources (such as fuel) will become a bit of an issue between the two countries.
Prediction.... Nothing will happen yet, China will do as it always does to stay in power and spread communism.... it will wait until the United States is destroyed by greed and debt and then just take Taiwan when it is ready. I dont trust China and it's a shame to many stupid people do. Never trust a Commie.
Last edited by LibertyandJusticeforAll; 03-24-2008 at 10:28 AM..
Reason: spelling
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