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The Supreme Court has now heard all the arguments and they have to decide the fate of ObamaCare. Basically there are 4 ways this can go down as I see it. They are:
1. The Court will uphold the law completely
2. The Court will strike the individual mandate but sever the rest of the law and uphold it
3. The Court will use the standing argument and defer on the technicality that the plaintiffs do not have the right to bring suit against a law until it takes effect in 2014
4. The Court will strike the law in its entirety.
If I were a betting man, I would go half and half on 1 or 2. I do not think the Court will defer or strike the law completely. There are a few schools of thought here. One is that the Court is very unhappy with Obama about the dressing down he gave them at the State of the Union over the Citizens United decision and they are chomping at the bit to get even with Obama by making him look stupid. The other school is that the Court generally does not like to pick fights with the other branches of government whom, after all, the Court depends on to enforce its decsions. The Court views itself as needing the respect of the other branches and picks its fights carefully. What do you think?
Probably number 2. Obama's folks weren't able to articulate a good limiting principle for their mandate, so the court will be conservative and not accept it.
Obviously, as with affirmative action and censorship, there will be a "split decision" with additional rulings and legislative responses to follow.
All but the most simplistic conservatives understand that the health care dilemna which has been festering for over twenty years is the result of short-sighted actions by several players. The "traditional" system built around Blue Cross and Blue Shield could not sustain itself -- not only due to new competitors who preached short-sight, but also due to the wave of immogration and the emergence of new segments of a growing economy -- not all of them subject to the same set of rules and with varying degrees of public-sector influence/distortion.
We need to confinue reforming the system, but the "single-payer" panacea peddled by the people on the speaker's left is just a guarante we'll all end up in the ghetto that is Meicaid. Better to strip the recent excesses back to the bare bones, then rebuild with as strong an incentive for encouraging and rewardig those who understand the need for taking charge of their own destiny.
The rest, as always, will lie in their ignorance and delusion like a pig in slop; I will fight tooth-and-nail not to be forced to join them. (And I have a sneaking suspicion that the flunkies recently elevarted to the Court by the Gang of Looters will faithfully do their best to continue diluting the options for the responsible and the non-conformistic).
The Supreme Court has now heard all the arguments and they have to decide the fate of ObamaCare. Basically there are 4 ways this can go down as I see it. They are:
1. The Court will uphold the law completely
2. The Court will strike the individual mandate but sever the rest of the law and uphold it
3. The Court will use the standing argument and defer on the technicality that the plaintiffs do not have the right to bring suit against a law until it takes effect in 2014
4. The Court will strike the law in its entirety.
If I were a betting man, I would go half and half on 1 or 2. I do not think the Court will defer or strike the law completely. There are a few schools of thought here. One is that the Court is very unhappy with Obama about the dressing down he gave them at the State of the Union over the Citizens United decision and they are chomping at the bit to get even with Obama by making him look stupid. The other school is that the Court generally does not like to pick fights with the other branches of government whom, after all, the Court depends on to enforce its decsions. The Court views itself as needing the respect of the other branches and picks its fights carefully. What do you think?
It is over-reaching, vague, and impossible to comprehend in its totality.
I hate to try and second guess how the final decision will go. I feel sure that Scalia, Thomas, Roberts and Alito will vote to strike it down and that Ginsberg, Kagan, Sotomayor and Breyer will vote to uphold it. How Kennedy will vote is the great unknown.
Obamacare cannot stand without the mandate. The mandate will be struck down . The mandate is the funding of the bill. Without the funding which will be if the mandate stood,, making everyone pay into it , Obamacare is dead.
I think that the scotus will take obamas statement as a challenge and rule the law unconstitutional in its entirety. I figure 6/3 or 7/2 ruling against obamacare.
it will be enough of a ruling where no future president will ever think about making UHC an issue again. a good thing.
I have no idea. I've heard differing opinions from people much smarter than me. Right now on Intrade.com, the market predicts a 63% chance that the mandate will be tossed.
I have no idea. I've heard differing opinions from people much smarter than me. Right now on Intrade.com, the market predicts a 63% chance that the mandate will be tossed.
hopefully it will decide it is unconstitutional before November 2012.
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