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Yeah yeah yeah, I know. Because your favorite talking head says so.
I was telling people we reached the top of the market back in 2006. Nobody listened. I told them to wait, since 2005, and buy in a few years. Nobody listened.
Now I've got the same people saying the same things you are. "The sky is falling, the sky is falling." Yeah yeah, I know. Houses will be worth 50% of their current value if we just wait another year.
No thanks. I've never made a dime listening to someone else, and I never will.
If you follow the sheep, that's not money you'll end up with on your shoes.
I have made more than enough money in the stock market. I was making thousands flip-flopping MCI AFTER it hit the pink sheets, while everyone else was running in the other direction.
I'm here to tell you today, another big crash is coming. It will come in the form of good bond market numbers, threat of higher interest rates, and much better than expected housing starts. They will hit together, like a perfect storm, and wreck that slot casino most call the NY stock exchange. You can put your money there if you want to, but just so you're prepared, repeat after me........
"Sell Mortimer, SELL!"
Plotting home price increases against GDP growth and adjusting assuming there were no housing crash, we are still 20% overvalued. Add to that the amount of subprime debt the government recently took on, and the housing market is NOT a reliable thing.
And you absolutely have listened to other people. What bulls**t. I doubt you have come up with anything new regarding investing. You may have listened to a combination of many people, but you HAVE listened to other people.
Will the stock market be higher next year? Maybe not. Probably not. Will it be higher in 20 years? Absolutely. Looking in the long term (20-30 years), the 'big crash' we saw was fairly insignificant. Hell, accounting for the crash, you still would have made a 10x multiple on investments from 1980-today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mhouse2001
We are in uncharted territory. To rely on history to determine the future is not wise. I will trust my gut instinct above anything, including the free market that you appear to cling to as god-Given.
Of all the political unrest in the world, you call the OWS movement insane?
You seem to glorify corporations for saving. Of course they are the ones who are preparing for the future, they CONTROL everything! How can people reasonably respond to this economy when it's crashing to the ground and is designed to foil their every reaction? The market sold to us as good and worth participating in has proven itself to be otherwise if our standard of living has dropped while the wealth goes into fewer hands and the debt is distributed to everybody else.
How is the economy 'designed to foil our every reaction'? The market gave us great returns over the last few decades, and what we have seen in the last few years is a relatively small blip. The standard of living for EVERYONE has skyrocketed. The size of the average house for a family of four was 1000 sqft in 1950 and is 2400 sqft today. The average family in 1970 had less than two cars, when they have almost three today. The middle class gained a lot over the last few decades, but we enjoy bashing the wealthy so much that we forget about the iPhone that each of our kids have today.
The middle class brought this debt on themselves when they bought 3000 sqft homes with 30 year mortgages and only 5% down payments. The middle class got exactly what we wanted - wealth (starbucks every day, vacations every year) regardless of the debt we brought on ourselves.
Plotting home price increases against GDP growth and adjusting assuming there were no housing crash, we are still 20% overvalued. Add to that the amount of subprime debt the government recently took on, and the housing market is NOT a reliable thing.
And you absolutely have listened to other people. What bulls**t. I doubt you have come up with anything new regarding investing. You may have listened to a combination of many people, but you HAVE listened to other people.
Will the stock market be higher next year? Maybe not. Probably not. Will it be higher in 20 years? Absolutely. Looking in the long term (20-30 years), the 'big crash' we saw was fairly insignificant. Hell, accounting for the crash, you still would have made a 10x multiple on investments from 1980-today.
How is the economy 'designed to foil our every reaction'? The market gave us great returns over the last few decades, and what we have seen in the last few years is a relatively small blip. The standard of living for EVERYONE has skyrocketed. The size of the average house for a family of four was 1000 sqft in 1950 and is 2400 sqft today. The average family in 1970 had less than two cars, when they have almost three today. The middle class gained a lot over the last few decades, but we enjoy bashing the wealthy so much that we forget about the iPhone that each of our kids have today.
The middle class brought this debt on themselves when they bought 3000 sqft homes with 30 year mortgages and only 5% down payments. The middle class got exactly what we wanted - wealth (starbucks every day, vacations every year) regardless of the debt we brought on ourselves.
So you've got your charts and your checkbook and you're off and running aye?
I'm not going to debate this with you for fear of lending credibility to your ideas and throwing someone else off course financially. All I can tell you is this. Short term investing buys stocks. Long term buys companies. A chart will never tell you the story about a company. If you absolutely must invest in the stock market, be sure to do your due diligence when it comes to the company itself. Not their highs and lows, PE ratios, trading trends, market makers, institutional stakeholders, etc. It wont help you long term. Get to know the company, and everything that they do.
As for me? I've got one property going up for sale in Jan, and I'm working on a deal for another provided something else goes through. No stocks for me. Not until we see a stable regime.
So you've got your charts and your checkbook and you're off and running aye?
I'm not going to debate this with you for fear of lending credibility to your ideas and throwing someone else off course financially. All I can tell you is this. Short term investing buys stocks. Long term buys companies. A chart will never tell you the story about a company. If you absolutely must invest in the stock market, be sure to do your due diligence when it comes to the company itself. Not their highs and lows, PE ratios, trading trends, market makers, institutional stakeholders, etc. It wont help you long term. Get to know the company, and everything that they do.
As for me? I've got one property going up for sale in Jan, and I'm working on a deal for another provided something else goes through. No stocks for me. Not until we see a stable regime.
I absolutely do my research. Personally, I have made 25% yearly returns at a minimum since 2007. I don't want to get into too much detail on investing strategies on this particular thread (to try to not pull it too far off topic). If you want to talk about some ideas I have had specifically about investing, PM me, I would love to have that conversation. I always like hearing someone else's opinion.
When wealth is transferred from the creators to the manipulators the overall standard of living decreases. I remember having much lower wages but greater prosperity in 1980 than 2010.
Me too and that was when interest rates were 15% or so. I rented a place for $265 a month that probably rents for $2000 a month now.
Those were the days when you could arrive 10 mins before your flight to Europe took off and they would still let you on the plane and there was ZERO SECURITY. That was a time when we still had some semblance of FREEDOM in this country. You also got some decent meals on the plane included with the price of your ticket and you could bring whatever liquids you wanted on board.
We need to stop buying houses and start investing in the stock market more. The average rate of return from 1980 to today on the dow industrial average is over 10x return. We stupidly trust the government, social programs, FHA loans, etc. instead of trusting the market, which can easily give us the returns we need to provide for ourselves.
The problem is your investments in stocks are still denominated in dollars. If the dollar becomes worthless, so are your investments. That is why we need to END THE FED (LIKE YESTERDAY!)
What will give you a FAR better total return than stocks which as I said, unless you buy through a broker where your investments are backed by other currencies, are tangible assets like food and consumables and you'll do FAR better than you could in the stock market even if you consistently got a 25% return (which after you figure the reduced purchasing power of the dollar isn't anywhere near that). Example: Buy paper towels and stock up. You could easily see a cost increase of double what it is today in two years or more. That would be the equivalent of a 100% gain of your stock investment over two years.
We need to stop buying houses and start investing in the stock market more. The average rate of return from 1980 to today on the dow industrial average is over 10x return. We stupidly trust the government, social programs, FHA loans, etc. instead of trusting the market, which can easily give us the returns we need to provide for ourselves.
Wait, let me email this to a dentist friend of mine who lost EVERYTHING he had in the stock market. I'm sure he'll get a real kick out of it.
Plotting home price increases against GDP growth and adjusting assuming there were no housing crash, we are still 20% overvalued. Add to that the amount of subprime debt the government recently took on, and the housing market is NOT a reliable thing.
And you absolutely have listened to other people. What bulls**t. I doubt you have come up with anything new regarding investing. You may have listened to a combination of many people, but you HAVE listened to other people.
Will the stock market be higher next year? Maybe not. Probably not. Will it be higher in 20 years? Absolutely. Looking in the long term (20-30 years), the 'big crash' we saw was fairly insignificant. Hell, accounting for the crash, you still would have made a 10x multiple on investments from 1980-today.
How is the economy 'designed to foil our every reaction'? The market gave us great returns over the last few decades, and what we have seen in the last few years is a relatively small blip. The standard of living for EVERYONE has skyrocketed. The size of the average house for a family of four was 1000 sqft in 1950 and is 2400 sqft today. The average family in 1970 had less than two cars, when they have almost three today. The middle class gained a lot over the last few decades, but we enjoy bashing the wealthy so much that we forget about the iPhone that each of our kids have today.
The middle class brought this debt on themselves when they bought 3000 sqft homes with 30 year mortgages and only 5% down payments. The middle class got exactly what we wanted - wealth (starbucks every day, vacations every year) regardless of the debt we brought on ourselves.
ah a direct quote from Ali Velshi/ CNN is owned by JPMorgan and B of A.
Americans with families needing to put food on the table are not thinking about starbucks lattes
So you've got your charts and your checkbook and you're off and running aye?
I'm not going to debate this with you for fear of lending credibility to your ideas and throwing someone else off course financially. All I can tell you is this. Short term investing buys stocks. Long term buys companies. A chart will never tell you the story about a company. If you absolutely must invest in the stock market, be sure to do your due diligence when it comes to the company itself. Not their highs and lows, PE ratios, trading trends, market makers, institutional stakeholders, etc. It wont help you long term. Get to know the company, and everything that they do.
As for me? I've got one property going up for sale in Jan, and I'm working on a deal for another provided something else goes through. No stocks for me. Not until we see a stable regime.
exactly. time to bail.. I feel sorry for families w. young children losing their homes and u have people promoting reckless investments here
People with kids (i dont so I am not drowning) have taken a HUGE hit in this Depression and its going to continue for awhile......
exactly. time to bail.. I feel sorry for families w. young children losing their homes and u have people promoting reckless investments here
People with kids (i dont so I am not drowning) have taken a HUGE hit in this Depression and its going to continue for awhile......
I wouldn't even be selling this property now, except I used to live in it, and have to take the profit before the 3 years runs out. If it was an investment property, I'd just rent it and hold it.
Right after it's sold I'll snag another short-sale being dumped by a 2006 buyer.
How is the economy 'designed to foil our every reaction'? The market gave us great returns over the last few decades, and what we have seen in the last few years is a relatively small blip. The standard of living for EVERYONE has skyrocketed. The size of the average house for a family of four was 1000 sqft in 1950 and is 2400 sqft today. The average family in 1970 had less than two cars, when they have almost three today. The middle class gained a lot over the last few decades, but we enjoy bashing the wealthy so much that we forget about the iPhone that each of our kids have today.
The middle class brought this debt on themselves when they bought 3000 sqft homes with 30 year mortgages and only 5% down payments. The middle class got exactly what we wanted - wealth (starbucks every day, vacations every year) regardless of the debt we brought on ourselves.
You can't deny that the economy is designed to keep the poor in poverty and the rich wealthy. There's no real mobility except in extreme cases and the "hard work" ethic might as well be considered a lie. Nobody's going upward and the powers that be will assure that it stays that way.
The standard of living for everyone has NOT skyrocketed just because there's more personal possessions or that the size of houses has increased. True, the numbers got bigger due to inflation, but so did the debt which increased much faster than income. We have surrounded ourselves with the illusion of wealth but are poorer overall. The dollars didn't get any bigger, you just need more of them to buy the same thing.
I can't say I understand your last sentence wherein you say the middle class got the wealth it wanted despite its self-imposed debt. That debt exceeds the wealth in its entirety, something unique to these times. Fifty years ago, one person could raise a family and manage to save money in the bank. Today, two incomes are necessary and our savings rate is negative. We are not better off, the stock market is not a savior, and the solution isn't investing in a fiat currency about ready to plunge to zero like they always do.
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ah a direct quote from Ali Velshi/ CNN is owned by JPMorgan and B of A. 
. I feel sorry for families w. young children losing their homes and u have people promoting reckless investments here
