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Some of you may have seen the small article in the Post-Gazette about Pittsburgh's continued modest population decline. Considering the personalities on this board, I'm suprised no one is obsessing about it. Anyways... as seen in many of the posts on this board... Pittsburghers and
While the raw overall number of population decline is not good... sometimes it pays to look a little deeper into the numbers. These are some thoughts I've put together concerning the regional economy and population trends.
Related to the recent Census estimates that detail a continued population decline in the region... here is a map detailing county population change, migration trends, natural increase and immigration on a national scale: http://www.usatoday.com/news/graphic...0307/flash.htm
You can see from the map that the problem afflicting us is not strong out-migration... but weak birth rates resulting from a period of EXTREME out-migration 20 years ago
Allegheny County has a slight out-flow... in contrast to the core counties of Detroit, Cleveland and Cincinnati... which have STRONG out-flows... Washington and Butler counties have slight in-flow while the rest of the Metro PGH counties have balanced flows
Notice that Western Pennsylvania is unique amongst major regions in its across the board birth deficit... this is a key difference between other declining regions such as Cleveland, Buffalo and Detroit... which are all seeing natural increases but are experiencing massive out-flows to offset this... this is a legacy of the epic steel collapse... an economic contraction more severe and extreme during those few years in the 80s than the prolonged difficulties of Buffalo, Cleveland and Detroit... which have never experienced such a region-shattering event... Pittsburgh's present population decline is a unique story in that it is largely caused by natural decrease as opposed to large out-flows
the following is a bit of a regional analysis I threw together drawing heavily on a website/blog called Pittsburgh Future:
Much like anything concerning Pittsburgh... it's easy to look at one raw number... like raw population growth or raw job growth and think this region is falling apart. But if you look into the numbers and actually do some analysis... you'll get a different picture.
The data used is from 1999-2005... the trends would look a bit better if 2006 data was included... since 2006 was our best year "economically" since before the 9/11 economic contraction that hit our region hard (9000 US Airways jobs lost, for example).
Why do we have such sluggish raw job growth? The primary reason is due to the aftershocks of the 150,000 steel jobs lost in the 80s and the resulting population exodus. We are losing jobs in sectors that depend on population growth... creating a bit of a downward spiral. These include public sector jobs, transportation jobs (USAir again), construction and distrubution centers. As Pittsburgh Future states, 1/3 of all jobs created nationally in this period were GOVERNMENT JOBS (amazing!)... half of these are public school jobs... which Pittsburgh is obviously not adding due to stagnant population. In fact, Pittsburgh had a net loss of government jobs.
The following declining sectors are considered "population-dependent sectors":
As Pittsburgh Future states, "When a region is growing, more buildings are built, more people shop, more kids go to public schools and more public services are needed."
If you take away those 4 population-dependent sectors... Pittsburgh's job growth has actually exceeded the national average:
As for the much-ballyhooed manufacturing decline... every region is experiencing it... and Pittsburgh is certainly not the worst
Health care and Higher Education are leading the way in our high-wage job growth
Low wage growth sectors. The tourism sector continues to boom:
We exceed most other regions in rate of growth for science and engineering jobs. These 6000 new jobs pay an average of 50% more than the overall average for the region:
7300 new health care jobs also pay 50% more than regional average:
We lost 18,000 management jobs, however :
As Pittsburgh Future says, "Slow Population Growth Will Continue to Make Overall Job Growth Look Slow"
hopefully we can keep creating more good jobs in high-wage sectors so that we eventually do see population growth and a growth in employment in population-dependent sectors... though it's important to note that most population-dependent jobs are low wage jobs
According to Pittsburgh Future: "Slow population growth does not mean that the region is an undesirable place for young people - contrary to popular myth, the Pittsburgh Region's population remains stagnant because of low birth rate and low international immigration, not because of continuing outmigration of young people. The low birth rate today is due to the outmigration of young people 20 years ago following the collapse of the steel industry - when they left the region, they took their future children and grandchildren with them. Although the Pittsburgh Region still has net domestic outmigration, so do most other regions..."
It's important to note... that despite population decline and sluggish overall job growth... the Pittsburgh Region's "Per Capita Personal Income" has rapidly increased over the past decade... which correlates to our growth in key high-wage sectors. In 2004, the Pittsburgh Economic Area (which includes the 10-county SWPA region plus Wheeling metro and Weirton-Steubenville metro) had a Per Capita Personal Income at 100% the national average. The annual growth rate of PCPI for the Pittsburgh EA from 1994-2004 was 4.3% compared to 4.1% nationally. Over this period, we became a "higher-wage" region in comparison to national trends. However, despite impressive wage growth... our sluggish population and job growth resulted in a rate of growth in Total Personal Income less than the national average. http://www.bea.gov/regional/bearfacts/acti...amp;yearin=2004
The popular perception is that people flee Pittsburgh in droves... when in fact, the Pittsburgh Metro has one of the lowest rates of domestic out-migration of any major metro in the country. Pittsburgh also has one of the lowest rates of domestic in-migration, however... which was slightly lower than its out-migration rate (most major metros experience a domestic migration deficit).
In addition, Metro Pittsburgh exhibits a higher death rate than birth rate. This is due to the area's unusually high percentage of seniors. This is a hangover effect from the 80s, where for a few years people really did leave Pittsburgh at a catastrophic rate due to the steel mill closures.
There are various reasons why Pittsburgh has not been a part of the recent wave of Latino immigration. Amongst these is, contrary to popular perception, Pittsburgh is now one of the least "blue-collar" areas in the country. The lack of blue-collar opportunities, is one big reason IMO that Latinos have not been attracted here. However, Pittsburgh does have the most highly educated population of immigrants. Skilled workers come from Europe, India, Asia and other regions to work at Pittsburgh's hospitals, universities and high-tech companies.
Despite the stigma of population loss that everyone likes to obsess about... Pittsburgh's economy has grown since the death of steel in the 80s. Pittsburgh wage growth has surpassed the national average in the past 15 years.
To cure Pittsburgh's illness... it is imperative to make an accurate diagnosis... Pittsburgh does not suffer from an exceptional domestic out-migration rate (which goes against popular perception)... in fact, it's domestic out-migration is amongst the lowest of any major region in the US. The problem is that Pittsburgh also has one of the lowest in-migration rates... a rate lower than it's outmigration. Most major regions experience a domestic migration deficit, however. The big gainers in recent years are exurban counties on the periphery, small to mid-size metros and select attractive rural areas. Even Seattle, Miami and Baltimore has domestic migration deficits. The exceptions are places like Phoenix, Tampa and Atlanta. This pdf file features a chart that shows what I'm talking about... it's a bit outdated but it is the best graphical representation of this phenomenon that I could find. Go to page 3. http://www.smartpolicy.org/pdf/pitmigration.pdf (broken link)
In addition to its domestic migration deficit (which I emphasize... is not due to the popular perception of young people fleeing in droves), Pittsburgh has been one of the least successful major regions in attracting international migrants. In fact, only Cincinnati has a smaller percentage of population comprised of international migrants. The other major reason for Pittsburgh's population decline is that deaths have outnumbered births for about 15 years. This is a hangover affect from the 80s, when a huge proportion of 20-somethings left the Pittsburgh region. Steel mills shuttered and the region lost 150,000 jobs. Young adults had to seek work elsewhere in the country. This is the main demographic that would have been having children throughout the 90s until today. Pittsburgh experienced a catastrophic net domestic migration loss of 50,000 for several years in the 80s.
These charts help to explain the population loss.
The Pittsburgh Metro's population peaked in 1970. It's decline accelerated in the 80s when the industrial base was destroyed. The decline slowed throughout the 90s and today.
Click the link... http://www.briem.com/PghEcon/PghEcon.../slide0029.htm
This chart shows the incredible decline in manufacturing jobs in the Pittsburgh region during the early 80s. This correlates to the drastic population decline of the same period. As you can see, manufacturing remained steady in the 90s.
Click the link... http://www.briem.com/PghEcon/PghEcon.../slide0008.htm
This chart shows the difference in unemployment rate between Pittsburgh the National average. As you can see, the decline in manufacturing resulted in a sky-high unemployment differential, which meant that people had to move to find work. It's also interesting to note that the rate of change in unemployment has become much less volatile in Pittsburgh's post-steel economy.
This chart shows the percentage of population 65 and older. Part of the increase over the years is due to increase in life expectancy... which has occured everywhere. However, the Pittsburgh Region has one of the highest percentage of population 65 and older in the country... this is due to its unique population trends. The catastrophic loss of young adults in the 80s meant that an unusually high percentage of those remaining in the Pittsburgh Region were seniors. This is why deaths have outpaced births in recent years, which is a major contributor to the population decline. As the chart shows, in recent years, the senior percentage has decreased as there has been a considerable "die-off" of people this age. The population demographic is starting to become a little more normal.
One can imagine that economic devastation like Pittsburgh suffered with the steel mills closing would take quite some time to recover from, but from an outsider's view, things seem to be getting better.
Being from Toledo, Ohio, another economically and population-wise struggling city, our nearest example of extreme urban decay is the armpit of America known as Detroit, and let me tell you, Pittsburgh isn't even in the same league, let alone the same ballpark.
I looked at that stuff last night and was too tired to even think about it much. I did see the article in the P-G online, but didn't post anything because the whole issue was a big brou-ha-ha on this forum at one time and didn't care for a repeat.
Looking at it today, and the commentary, all I can say is that Pittsburgh doesn't look particularly good or bad right now. Obviously, things were bad in the 80s, and if a lot of people hadn't left, unemployment would have been even higher then, and maybe even now. So perhaps the "down-sizing" of the Pittsburgh area was to its benefit.
Again obviously, if deaths are greater than births and there is little in-migration, the population is going to drop. That is first-grade math! Here in Colorado, the bigger concern is "growth", "making growth pay its own way", etc. Pittsburgh is an example of what happens when growth doesn't happen. The job creation doesn't happen, either.
As to why Pittsburgh is not appealing to the Latino population, I would posit that it's because there just aren't a lot of growth-related jobs. Recent immigrants from Mexico/Central America tend to work in construction and other jobs that depend on growth. (That is not the case with Hispanic families who have lived in the US for generations.)
Anyway, the information about jobs shows that what many people say on this forum is true: the main occupations are health care and education. Since K-12 school population is declining, apparetly the education jobs are in higher ed, which tends to require advanced degrees, as do many health care jobs.
A caveat: I took statistics in college. One of the first readings we had to pursue was a classic article titled "How to Lie with Statistics". There is also an old saying: "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics". One can prove just about anything with statistics.
A few New Faces here and there.. and What POP City is doing ....
I have seen a few new faces recently as immigrants go in the form of the local landscaping profession. And a school teacher in the Ambridge SD recently told me they have a few new latino families in both the middle and high school. Increased economic opportunity would encourage more in-migration of all immigrants. But some organizations feel the need to 'forum think' about such. Pop City Media will be hosting the following:
cityLIVE!
An engaging and educational event series, showcasing the creative and intellectual talent of the city, speaking to its transformation and providing a networking forum for those interested in all things Pittsburgh.
Show your love. Show up.
Let’s JUMPSTART Immigration
November 1, 2007 at 6:30 pm
@ the New Hazlett Theater
Free! rsvp@nowall.com
Immigration brings the kind of energy, diversity, entrepreneurship, creativity and of course, great food that make any highly diverse city an enviable place to live. More than that, in an increasingly global economy, international talent plays an especially important role. Cities that draw their workers from an international pool can grow their economies more quickly and effectively than those that only draw from a local talent pool. Moreover a greater diversity of employees inside a company most likely will make that company more competitive in the global economy.
Historically, Pittsburgh’s wealth and economy, like most other US cities, was built with the help of a vast pool of immigrant workers. Now we rank 49th out of the top 50 metro areas in the U.S. in percentage of the population who are foreign born and have completed a college degree.
Is Pittsburgh ready to focus on immigration? Will we be left behind if we don’t? How do we jumpstart it? Our moderator is Sunil Wadhwani, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder of iGATE Corporation, a global business with over 6,000 employees that service over 200 major clients on four continents. Panelists include James P. Smith, who holds the chair in labor markets and demographic studies at Rand Corp, Khadra Mohammed, the executive director of the Pittsburgh Refugee Center and James F. Kenney, Philadelphia’s Councilman-at-Large.
I have seen a few new faces recently as immigrants go in the form of the local landscaping profession. And a school teacher in the Ambridge SD recently told me they have a few new latino families in both the middle and high school. Increased economic opportunity would encourage more in-migration of all immigrants. But some organizations feel the need to 'forum think' about such. Pop City Media will be hosting the following:
cityLIVE!
An engaging and educational event series, showcasing the creative and intellectual talent of the city, speaking to its transformation and providing a networking forum for those interested in all things Pittsburgh.
Show your love. Show up.
Let’s JUMPSTART Immigration
November 1, 2007 at 6:30 pm
@ the New Hazlett Theater
Free! rsvp@nowall.com
Immigration brings the kind of energy, diversity, entrepreneurship, creativity and of course, great food that make any highly diverse city an enviable place to live. More than that, in an increasingly global economy, international talent plays an especially important role. Cities that draw their workers from an international pool can grow their economies more quickly and effectively than those that only draw from a local talent pool. Moreover a greater diversity of employees inside a company most likely will make that company more competitive in the global economy.
Historically, Pittsburgh’s wealth and economy, like most other US cities, was built with the help of a vast pool of immigrant workers. Now we rank 49th out of the top 50 metro areas in the U.S. in percentage of the population who are foreign born and have completed a college degree.
Is Pittsburgh ready to focus on immigration? Will we be left behind if we don’t? How do we jumpstart it? Our moderator is Sunil Wadhwani, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder of iGATE Corporation, a global business with over 6,000 employees that service over 200 major clients on four continents. Panelists include James P. Smith, who holds the chair in labor markets and demographic studies at Rand Corp, Khadra Mohammed, the executive director of the Pittsburgh Refugee Center and James F. Kenney, Philadelphia’s Councilman-at-Large.
by no wall productions, the Heinz Family Philanthropies and the New Hazlett Theater, and sponsored by Pop City
I gave everyone points on this post today! Pittnurse, as usual, you are spot on also. I took statistics too and although I never really comprehended anything I do understand what you are saying about "making the numbers work in your favor."
I would like to mention that the Pittsburgh forum is one of the most accurate, honest and quite frankly, one of the most educated forums on City-data. I am continuously impressed with the caliber of posters who leave comments. Most discussions are well thought out and statistically accurate.
One thing I have noticed about the region is that the education level is MUCHO higher than in areas *with* a high immigration population. However, I am in agreement that we DO need them in order to start the endless circle of growth (which isn't always a boon - just look at Phoenix. It's grown so fast, yet our schools are some of the worst in the nation and disturbingly underfunded (low taxes), our universities area joke, our hospitals are over worked and losing money and the average worker here makes a whopping 10 bucks an hour.)
In Pittsburgh, I have noticed a larger number of highly educated individuals. It's really quite impressive. Most people I converse with are college educated! Even the "average Joe" in Pittsburgh is better educated than most of Phoenix's population!
I haven't immersed myself deeply into the Pittsburgh region just yet, but will shortly and I find the whole aspect of dialogue amongst the city members very intriguing indeed. If you go to other forums (not just on city-data) of other cities such as Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Phoenix, St. Louis etc., what you have there is not a dialogue about real solutions, but rather arguements and name calling that offer no solutions.
Pittsburgh may or may not ever become a bustling city in the future. Who knows. However, if it keeps ticking long like it is, and the youth of today do indeed stick around and have children, slow grow is better than none.
Pittsburgh does have many high paying jobs in several different sectors. Which will, in my opinion, keep the city from crumbling. Places that are experiencing rapid growth but without jobs that offer a decent living wage, are already experiencing a rapid decline in the standard of living.
Being the biggest does not necessarily mean you are the best.
Good stuf Londonbarcelona...!
It is a funny and I truly find a fascinating city. Full of it's own character at a time when many communities look and act the same across the national landscape. The geography and topography play a role just like the people that live here do. I had to move back to my hometown after doing the life elsewhere routine. I think you'll find Pittsburgh to be a very passionate community yet very soft and almost shy in the bigger picture. I'm never bored here, I was terribly bored living in South Florida, and while I loved Colorado, I still enjoy Pittsburgh more. Not to say we don't need improvements in many areas. Hence, I'll
do my part in helping my fellow Pittsburgher's along! Over the next 2 weeks I will lend a hand as a volunteer in the attempt to get the challenger for mayor to the winning circle.
yeh it's a good town and it deserves a shot at being better.
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Ummm...wow.
A few New Faces here and there.. and What POP City is doing ....
I do understand what you are saying about "making the numbers work in your favor." 
