Greater Phoenix Real Estate Statistics May 1,2009 (Mesa, Scottsdale: bank owned, for sale, real estate market)

[Captain Bill]

Below are some statistics and information from The Cromford Report.

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales fell 3% in March to an annualized rate of 4.57 million units.

Note that this was a national figure.

The home sales in the Phoenix Metropolitan area for all types are up dramatically:

• Change in monthly sales from March 2008 to March 2009 = up 68%
• Change in annual sales rate from March 2008 to March 2009 = up 34%
• Change in monthly sales from February 2009 to March 2009 = up 39%
• So Greater Phoenix bears not the slightest relationship to the national real estate market.

The $/SF list for pending REO sales ($65.36) is higher than the $/SF list ($62.65) for monthly REO sales, which means if you’re hoping to buy a bank owned property, you more than likely will be paying more than the list price. Many people have been posting on the forum that they have experienced multiple offers.


There is a 1.3 months supply of REO's in the Greater Phoenix area.

Single Family Housing
April 30, 2009

Months Supply of Inventory

Phoenix.........3.5
Surprise.........4.9
Mesa.............4.5
Scottsdale....14.3
Gilbert...........5.3
Chandler........5.8
Queen Creek...2.9

Single Family Housing
April 23, 2009

Monthly Median Sale Price

Phoenix....... ..Week 13 = $60,288....... Week 16 = $64,538
Surprise........ .Week 14 = $134,100....... Week 16 = $130,450
Mesa............ Week 14 = $130,000 ....... Week 16 = $134,900
Scottsdale.. . .Week 14 = $385,000....... Week 16 = $400,000
Gilbert........... Week 15 = $195,000....... Week 16 = $199,900
Chandler...... ..Week 13 = $189,000 ....... Week 16 = $185,000
Queen Creek... Week 15 = $107,500....... Week 16 = $105,000

I only had time to take a small sample of the valley.


In all of the cities shown, (except Scottsdale) the inventory supply has declined to below 6 months.

• From 4 to 6 months inventory is considered a Sellers Market.
• Above 6 months supply is considered a Buyers Market.

The median price has declined recently in the following cities:

Surprise........ .Week 14 = $134,100....... Week 16 = $130,450
Chandler...... ..Week 13 = $189,000 ....... Week 16 = $185,000
Queen Creek... Week 15 = $107,500....... Week 16 = $105,000

The median price has increased recently in the following cities:

Phoenix....... ..Week 13 = $60,288......... Week 16 = $64,538
Mesa............ Week 14 = $130,000 ....... Week 16 = $134,900
Scottsdale......Week 14 = $385,000........ Week 16 = $400,000
Gilbert........... Week 15 = $195,000....... Week 16 = $199,900

Historically, March has been a bellweather month for sales activity through August. March was very strong so there is the probablility that sales will remain strong through August.

When I post statistics there are some who want to see more stats for more cities, and some who want different stats. I just don't have the time to honor those requests.

However, these stats and much much more are available to the public at Cromford Report dot com for a reasonable subscription rate. I do not have any association with that company except as a subscriber.

For over a year I've watched the continuing trend of increasing sales and declining inventory, along with declining prices. As the sales increase and inventory declines, then at some point a reversal in price should occur. At least that is the "simplified" law of supply & demand.

It appears as if this reversal of pricing is happening in some areas. Will it continue? I don't know.

It will depend on many factors. If the inventory stays low, and the sales continue to increase, that should provide a cushion for any influx of foreclosures, so that the influx may not drive the prices down further.

It will also depend somewhat on the interest rates remaining low, and the banks loosening up on their lending practices.

Of course the overall economy will play a large part. Not to get into a political discussion, but I believe the world governments are working together to affect a turn around of the economy.

We see many more people gravitating to Phoenix and commenting on the very low prices.

[Beena]

Bill you gotta simplify. I am a simple kinda person. Is now a great time to buy? Purchase before I am priced out of the market?

[roosevelt]

Originally Posted by Beena

Bill you gotta simplify. I am a simple kinda person. Is now a great time to buy? Purchase before I am priced out of the market?

I'm starting to think you have to get into a bidding war to buy a house you like. Very time consuming, I predict that new home sales are going to start moving again as people see the prices of used homes and time spent waiting for an offer and the price of a new home which is becoming only slightly higher.

[YAZ]

Interesting.

Hopefully things will get back to "normal" soon.

Thanks for the info.

[azcater]

Roosevelt, I agree regarding the new homes sales comment.. I walked into one yesterday and they've dropped prices down to what the short sales are going for and they're much nicer houses.. Very interesting!

[sh9730]

Yes, its an interesting time - On the one hand, interest rates are creeping up a bit the last week, which could be a BAD thing, however it may spur some of those on the fences to jump in before they go even higher (maybe).

I also have seen a slight uptick in houses on the market in my area the last week or so as shown by Trulia. I know Trulia has issues, but it does seem to provide a decent idea of what is on MLS vs what has sold over the last 90 days (which can be calculated into monthly supply that Capn Bill is speaking about), and it is updated with MLS every day and recent sale pretty frequently.

The increase in MLS listings could just be a slight blip since I ve only noticed the increase over the last week or so and prior to that it had been steady at just under 300 homes for sale in my zip code (85222) with just under 900 sold in last 90 days (Hence a 3 month supply). Today its 331 homes for sale vs 892 sold in last 90 days, but the sold data hasnt been updated in a few days, so we ll have to see.

Trulia also updates all homes in any part of the foreclosure process (from first notice to auction) and it has ticked back up to over 700 today when it was as low as 600 a few weeks ago, but this is probably not unexpected as other threads have discussed the end to the moratorium. Not all of these will go into foreclosure of course....

We ll just have to see..

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Beena

Bill you gotta simplify. I am a simple kinda person. Is now a great time to buy? Purchase before I am priced out of the market?

Beena, didn't you say that you have a Realtor who is also a Proctologist, whom you pay 1% commission for all of your transactions?

That person would be more qualified than I am to give you buying advice. He kinows you bettern than I, and from different perspectives. You can even get the buying advice at the same time you have a treatment.

You also said something about showing realtors your bottom so they'll know one when they see one.

I can envision the scene now.

Beena Makes Office Visit to Proctologist/Realtor, Dr. A.H, Reamer, MD, CRS, for Digital Exam and Real Estate Buying Advice:

Note: Dr Reamer received his Medical Degree from the Famous Butt Medical School in Butte, Mt, and his Real Estate license from the infamous Cracker Box U in PHX.

Dr. Reamer says:

"Welcome Beena; Now bend over the table and show me your bottom so I'll know what one looks like when I see one, and while I'm probing I'll tell you if it's time for you to buy your house."

A word of caution: Make sure that Dr. A.H does not have both hands on your shoulders when performing the exam. You know you can't trust these Realtors, especially Proctologist/Realtors.

Also, since you cut his real estate commissiuon by 66.6 percent, you may want to make sure that he doesn't take quid pro quo by reducing his exam probe by 66.6%. But on the other hand, an exam covering only 1/3 is better than nothing. But you know that, because you said you were good at math.

I wouldn't want to be a Proctologist because it's a dirty job. But somebody's got to do it, and it may as well be a Realtor because a few people are always trying to give them the sh***y end of the deal anyway.

[borborygmi]

Riiiigghht. We're beating this dead horse again? Honestly. This topic needs no further discussion. I've noticed this repeating trend on the Phoenix forum, one that gives me a feeling of deja vu every time it happens: Captain Bill the RE agent approximately once every few weeks gets an urge to start a new thread filled with new glowing, skewed data to prove that the real estate market in Phoenix is on the imminent verge of recovery, and presents data to hopefully convince everyone to go out and buy RIGHT NOW!! before it's too late. He's then rebunked by several more financially savvy, educated and logically thinking posters on the forum, Bill looks like a fool, thread dies, repeat cycle. This has been going on at least a year now. I'm sure if I look in the archives, I can find a thread from at least a year ago when Bill posted data reflecting upward trends in the Phoenix market and predicted the same things. What's the Phoenix average home value dropped from a year ago, 35%? Yep, about that. Worst in the country? Yep again. Here's the news, Bill:

Forecast: Thousands of job losses into 2010

Yeah, given this outlook for the AZ job market, the RE in Phoenix won't be trending upward again for a long time. If you can't read the writing on the wall when it's written this big, in neon, and screaming at you, well sorry- can't help ya.

Of course the overall economy will play a large part. Not to get into a political discussion, but I believe the world governments are working together to affect a turn around of the economy.

By the way, this is priceless- ROTFLMFAO. Governments can't print capital, Bill- keep that in mind. I don't care what Maobama and his leftist cronies do to pump fake money into the economy- when the house of cards that is the bailout program comes tumbling down at the point someone actually has to start paying for it- and we all will- in the form of hyperinflation, sky-high interest rates, tax hikes, and a worthless dollar, I doubt anyone's going to be buying homes with borrowed mirage money that they have access to even less of in the future than they do now.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by borborygmi

Riiiigghht. We're beating this dead horse again? Honestly. This topic needs no further discussion. I've noticed this repeating trend on the Phoenix forum, one that gives me a feeling of deja vu every time it happens: Captain Bill the RE agent approximately once every few weeks gets an urge to start a new thread filled with new glowing, skewed data to prove that the real estate market in Phoenix is on the imminent verge of recovery, and presents data to hopefully convince everyone to go out and buy RIGHT NOW!! before it's too late. He's then rebunked by several more financially savvy, educated and logically thinking posters on the forum, Bill looks like a fool, thread dies, repeat cycle. This has been going on at least a year now. I'm sure if I look in the archives, I can find a thread from at least a year ago when Bill posted data reflecting upward trends in the Phoenix market and predicted the same things. What's the Phoenix average home value dropped from a year ago, 35%? Yep, about that. Worst in the country? Yep again. Here's the news, Bill:

Forecast: Thousands of job losses into 2010

Yeah, given this outlook for the AZ job market, the RE in Phoenix won't be trending upward again for a long time. If you can't read the writing on the wall when it's written this big, in neon, and screaming at you, well sorry- can't help ya.



By the way, this is priceless- ROTFLMFAO. Governments can't print capital, Bill- keep that in mind. I don't care what Maobama and his leftist cronies do to pump fake money into the economy- when the house of cards that is the bailout program comes tumbling down at the point someone actually has to start paying for it- and we all will- in the form of hyperinflation, sky-high interest rates, tax hikes, and a worthless dollar, I doubt anyone's going to be buying homes with borrowed mirage money that they have access to even less of in the future than they do now.

Yeah right. Capt Bill is the only one on these threads that has any facts at all. He puts them out there and one can intrepret them as he wishes. The yoyo doomers go on personal attacks like this post and offer nothing in support but ignorant conjecture or political claptrap (like this post again). Why do you care? Are you just trying to help?

[movin'on]

Thanks for this most comprehensive thread. What I take away from it is that I'll be in Scottsdale for a while. And prices are on the upswing, as are the number of homes that are not selling.