Baseline Corridor as an investment?? (Phoenix, Scottsdale: real estate, to rent, crime) - Arizona (AZ) - City-Data Forum

thedreamteam · 02-02-2009, 06:21 PM

I am considering the extreme south end of Phoenix (even south of Dobbins), right up against South Mountain for an investment. I understand the entire Baseline Corridor area is a transitional area and has been going through change for the past 6 to 10 yrs. My time horizon is 10-15 yrs and i am hoping some of the older areas are wiped out by all the newer developement over time.

I know in most other big cities residents would give up their left arm to be within a 10 min drive of downtown or the airport. However, I am not from Phoenix and i am sure there is a lot i am missing out on. I am hoping the locals can help fill me in.

I am looking at a brand new 3600 sq ft house in a gated community, with $150k worth of upgraded options on a hillside lot at under $95 a sq ft. Do you think this is a wise choice? I am not concerned about the school system as my children will not be attending school in the states.

thanks in advance.

AzDreamer · 02-02-2009, 07:39 PM

Doesn't sound like an investment to me, more likely it's a money pit.

Maybe if someone would buy a bunch of run down shacks and fix them up enough to rent them out, that would be an investment.

sheena · 02-03-2009, 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thedreamteam

I am considering the extreme south end of Phoenix (even south of Dobbins), right up against South Mountain for an investment. I understand the entire Baseline Corridor area is a transitional area and has been going through change for the past 6 to 10 yrs. My time horizon is 10-15 yrs and i am hoping some of the older areas are wiped out by all the newer developement over time.

I know in most other big cities residents would give up their left arm to be within a 10 min drive of downtown or the airport. However, I am not from Phoenix and i am sure there is a lot i am missing out on. I am hoping the locals can help fill me in.

I am looking at a brand new 3600 sq ft house in a gated community, with $150k worth of upgraded options on a hillside lot at under $95 a sq ft. Do you think this is a wise choice? I am not concerned about the school system as my children will not be attending school in the states.

thanks in advance.

If you are looking for an investment you should take the school district into consideration. Who is the likely buyer of a big 3600 sqft home? People with kids. I wouldn't buy in that area.

thedreamteam · 02-03-2009, 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sheena

If you are looking for an investment you should take the school district into consideration. Who is the likely buyer of a big 3600 sqft home? People with kids. I wouldn't buy in that area.

do you not think things will change for the better in 10-15 yrs?

azdr0710 · 02-03-2009, 11:32 PM

don't forget the old rules of thumb:

"you get what you pay for" - if it hasn't sold, even in this market, there must be an issue or issues with it.....less than $100 sq/ft is very good, but house that big may become less desireable in a few years....why buy so big if your kids won't be around?

"location, location, location" - all of Baseline fails this test, though there are some very nice, clean neighborhoods and good stores all along Baseline...being close to Sky Harbor and downtown is great, but the type of person who'd regularly go to those places probably wouldn't want to live on Baseline.....

look at the neighborhood and see if it feels stable and not in decline...if you must do it, I'd stay east of maybe 19th Avenue (not Street).....

sheena · 02-05-2009, 11:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thedreamteam

do you not think things will change for the better in 10-15 yrs?

I think it would take the community to change it and I don't think people are going to stick it out there. Too transient.

Bungle · 02-06-2009, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by azdr0710

"location, location, location" - all of Baseline fails this test, though there are some very nice, clean neighborhoods and good stores all along Baseline...being close to Sky Harbor and downtown is great, but the type of person who'd regularly go to those places probably wouldn't want to live on Baseline.....

As someone who has lived in this area for the past four years I'm going to have to disagree with you. I moved from Ahwatukee to the South Phoenix Baseline corridor area for the main reason of location. I'm a young, married, professional that works downtown and travels quite frequently, so the proximity to my work and the airport couldn't be better. Not to mention how close I am to the great hiking and outdoors that South Mountain can provide.

I've lived in the valley for 14 years and knew about the reputation this area had before I moved there. I took a chance on it and I'm glad I did. My wife and I are very comfortable there...enjoy the diversity of the people that live there...and have never once had any sort of crime related issue like I had while living in other areas (Tempe...'Tukee...).

I think its a great place if you're looking to avoid the stereotypical cookie cutter white suburbia that most people on here seem to be afraid to venture out of.

observer53 · 02-06-2009, 12:54 PM

It's getting a lot better. There are some nice newer areas all along from just west of Ahwahtukee extending out west along Dobbins. The OP isn't talking about "on Baseline", but even Baseline is much better than it was.

Howard Roark · 02-07-2009, 10:35 AM

My residence is in Ahwatukee. The area along 48th street from Ray Road to the light industrial area after the bend near the Guadalupe turnoff is pretty good. But when 48th returns to being north/south again it is kind of run down. That's near the Baseline Corridor. It certainly would be nice to see it improve and all the blight gotten rid of. Personally I would not take a gamble on it. I don't have enough wealth to put aside something for such a risk. I think I'd need a net worth of $15 million and even then, I would not invest more than 1/15th in an area that may not pay off in 15 years.

I also would never obligate more than 1/6 of my net worth in real estate. This should be a rule for anyone over the age of 40. You should not overweight your wealth in real estate after 40. With health care costs going up, you need to set aside a lot of your net worth for taking care of your health. Some medical procedures in the future may add ten more years to your life and make you feel much younger, but having that procedure done on you cost you the price of a house or two houses.

azdr0710 · 02-07-2009, 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bungle

As someone who has lived in this area for the past four years I'm going to have to disagree with you.

I generally agree with you, bungle...I've driven Baseline from I-10 to around 19th Ave lately a couple times and it is not bad, as I said....but the OP seemed to be asking about investment potential, future prospects, etc. and I wanted to remind him that the old adage, "location.......", was a concern here...(all would agree that Baseline is not Town of PV/N Scottsdale) .....however, in 10-15 years, as he said, it may turn into a great in-town location for suburbia-weary commuters....I don't know