Need advice on buying a home in central Phoenix (Scottsdale: for sale, real estate)

[sunshinegirlAZ]

I'm thinking about buying a home in Phoenix within the next couple of weeks, and am looking for advice on what kind of property to look for. I will be there at least 3 years, but after that I may either sell the property or try to rent it out if I don't stay in Phoenix. I'll be working near Thomas/20th St. and would like to be fairly close (less than 10 miles). Most advice I've received is that I should stay north of Thomas and East of the 51 in order to be in a safe, quiet neighborhood. I can afford probably around $230000 and am looking for a 2 or 3 bedroom place. With these criteria in mind, are there certain zip codes or areas in central Phoenix (or even south Scottsdale) that I should look at where the property values are fairly stable and the rental market is good? How is the resale value for condos vs. townhomes vs. single family homes and how is the resale value for new homes vs. older homes?

[ComingEast]

You ought to go to Real Estate Valuations, Homes for Sale, Free Real Estate Information | Zillow Real Estate and look on the map of Phoenix. It will show exactly what you want to see - homes for sale and their prices in the areas in which you are interested. There are some nice neighborhoods west of the 51 and north of Camelback, although I'm not sure you can get anything in your price range.

Home values in the Phoenix metro area somewhat reflect the distance from the center.

You can also search crime rates for various areas of the city - go to the Phoenix city website - sorry I do not have that URL but it's online.

[vegaspilgrim]

230k in Central Phoenix *might* get you a fixer-upper in a "transitional" neighborhood if you manage to find a great bargain. On the other hand, it might get you crap. 230k in South Phoenix or Laveen could easily get you a brand new house, but you'd be living among Section-8ers in a neighborhood where "safe" and "quiet" would be significant question marks. 230k in Gilbert, if you found a really good deal (possible one of those foreclosers), could get you a new or new-er house in a decent neighborhood, but then you'd be FAR from your work. Perhaps renting is the way to go, especially if you don't think you're going to stay for more than a few years?

[movin'on]

Yeah, I knew a guy who was planning on listing his house on 28th St and McDowell for around $280K (west of the 51). Kind of a dump in an older and questionable neighborhood. I for sure agree with renting, at least initially until you can get your bearings.

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by sunshinegirlAZ

I'm thinking about buying a home in Phoenix within the next couple of weeks, and am looking for advice on what kind of property to look for. I will be there at least 3 years, but after that I may either sell the property or try to rent it out if I don't stay in Phoenix. I'll be working near Thomas/20th St. and would like to be fairly close (less than 10 miles). Most advice I've received is that I should stay north of Thomas and East of the 51 in order to be in a safe, quiet neighborhood. I can afford probably around $230000 and am looking for a 2 or 3 bedroom place. With these criteria in mind, are there certain zip codes or areas in central Phoenix (or even south Scottsdale) that I should look at where the property values are fairly stable and the rental market is good? How is the resale value for condos vs. townhomes vs. single family homes and how is the resale value for new homes vs. older homes?

As far as good neighborhoods are concerned, I would disregard the boundaries you've heard. They're not entirely accurate. West of 51 and south of Thomas, there are actually some very attractive historic districts that are relatively safe in comparison to other areas. The "north of Thomas" guideline actually has more validity east of the 51 than west of the 51.

The main issue, as others have noted, is price. $230,000 won't buy more than a fixer-upper in a transitional area unless you go beyond 10 miles out from your work location. If $230,000 is a firm price ceiling, I'd suggest buying a condo / townhouse or renting in lieu of buying a house right away.

[vegaspilgrim]

Originally Posted by silverbear

As far as good neighborhoods are concerned, I would disregard the boundaries you've heard. They're not entirely accurate. West of 51 and south of Thomas, there are actually some very attractive historic districts that are attractive and relatively safe in comparison to other areas. It's actually more desirable to stay north of Thomas east of the 51 than west of the 51.

I agree generally, although to get technical here, which specific neighborhoods are you referring to? The weird thing with Phoenix is the quality of the neighborhoods can change with every mile-- actually, more like every half-mile you go. I've bicycled along Oak st (and the pedestrian bridge that crosses the 51) from Scottsdale to central Phoenix a bunch of times so I'm pretty familiar with that whole part of Phoenix. Alvarado and Alvarado East are really nice, but small and exclusive neighborhoods where homes run for well over a million. Coronado? The western part of the Coronado neighborhood (say, bounded by 7th st, Thomas, McDowell, and 12th st) is okay, I wouldn't call it absolutely fantastic, but I can definitely see that area improving over time. The further east you get in the Coronado neighborhood (say, between 12th st and 16th st) the more questionable it becomes. The neighborhood east of that, wedged between 16th st and the 51, Thomas and McDowell is a total dump, I wouldn't recommend anybody live there.

On the east side of the 51, between the 51, Thomas, 24th st, and McDowell, that neighborhood, known as "Green Gables" is one sketchy place too. I used to kind of like that area, but on my most recent bike ride through there I've changed my mind a little bit-- that neighborhood is sketchy, rough, ugly for the most part, and I just didn't feel safe there. Just north of "Green Gables," bounded by the 51, Indian School, 24th st & Thomas, may be slightly better, but it still isn't anything to brag about. Between 24th st and 32nd st, Thomas & McDowell, it's still kind of sketchy, but I'd say that's an improvement over areas further west. A lot greenery there. Some of that area is also called "Green Gables." The grid bounded by 24th st, Indian School, 32nd, and Thomas encompasses a neighborhood called "Phoenix Homesteads," a transitional neighborhood that might have some potential as gentrification spreads to the south from the Biltmore area. The 32nd/Indian School/36th/Thomas grid is also what I would call "upwardly transitional," seeing some scattered construction projects here and there.

32nd/40th/Thomas/McDowell is not a nice neighborhood overall, but the easternmost part of that neighborhood, badged as "Northeast Village" gets better. I've even noticed a couple of scrapes with new custom built homes there-- a sign that there's still life left in that neighborhood. The half mile grid to the east, 40th/Thomas/McDowell/44th st, called "Rancho Ventura," is even better yet, in fact I'd say Rancho Ventura is fully entrenched in the gentrification process right now, as people who cannot afford Arcadia go to the next neighborhood to the south. A LOT of greenery there-- it almost feels like you're somewhere in the south, rather than the desert. Finally, to make an exhaustive list complete, to the east of that (McD/Thomas/44th st to 48th st) you have "Orangedale," which I personally don't find that great, in fact I think it's a step down from Rancho Ventura. However, right at 52nd and Oak st there is new construction going on, and the neighborhood between Oak & Thomas, 56th st & 64th ("Sherwood Heights") is like a mini Paradise Valley, IMO.

I would stay away from anything south of McDowell, once you're east of the immediate downtown Phoenix area, personally. Between McDowell and the 202/10 alignment are a bunch of neighborhood-lets, fragments of former neighborhoods that were sliced up when the freeways went in. You might find one or two little neighborhood streets tucked away here or there that look good, but the surrounding streets would be scary. Everything between 7th st, McDowell, 52nd st, and the Salt River (the area surrounding the airport, basically) feels like one giant zone of poverty.

Good luck with your home search!

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by vegaspilgrim

I agree generally, although to get technical here, which specific neighborhoods are you referring to?

I agree with the specifics in your detailed second post; I won't restate them or second guess them. They illustrate the need to avoid generalizations like "Stay north of Thomas and east of 51." As you mention, neighborhoods are more granular than those broad guidelines and can change quickly. That's why it's important to look very carefully and not rely on generalizations. Regardless, price is going to be the main issue for the OP.

[abmiku]

I would recommend renting vs. buying. The monthly payment would be lower if you are renting. Also the house would have to appreciate 2% per year for those 3 years for you just to break even if you sell it, because you'll have to pay a Realtor 6% commission to sell it. If you plan on renting out the house and you have a $200,000 loan on it, you'll be losing money each month in terms of cash flow. Lastly, home prices are still falling and if you buy now it may be 7-10 years before you can sell it and break even......buying that expensive a house, to possibly sell or rent in 3 years is a big mistake.

If you follow the following 2 rules, you'll never lose money in the housing market.

1. Plan on owning the house for a the very minimum 10 years.
2. If you plan on renting the house out at some point...make sure the rental income is more than the total expenses of the house (ie. mortgage, taxes, Insurance, HOA, upkeep and repairs).

[sunshinegirlAZ]

Thanks for all the advice everyone--you were all correct about the neighborhoods, so I think I'll have to move further out to get in a decent area in my price range. I did find a couple of good single family homes in north Phoenix (36th/Bell area), so I have to decide if the commute is doable. It took about 15 minutes to go 12 miles on the 51 with no traffic, but how crowded does the 51 get during rush hour?

[sablebaby]

Originally Posted by sunshinegirlAZ

Thanks for all the advice everyone--you were all correct about the neighborhoods, so I think I'll have to move further out to get in a decent area in my price range. I did find a couple of good single family homes in north Phoenix (36th/Bell area), so I have to decide if the commute is doable. It took about 15 minutes to go 12 miles on the 51 with no traffic, but how crowded does the 51 get during rush hour?

That area is ok. We looked at buying a home a mile up at Union Hills, which I would recommend much more than Bell. The 51 does fill up just as much as most freeways in the valley. Try taking it at the time you'd be going to work.