"Bad News on Phoenix area home valuations" (Chandler: short sales, real estate market)

[azriverfan.]

"Residential-property values fell an average of 7.6 percent in 2011, compared with 11 percent in 2010, according to the latest report from the Maricopa County Assessor's Office. Though 2011 is the fifth year of value declines, it also shows that the rate of annual decline in values continues to slow."
Read more: Bad news on Phoenix area home valuations, but next year may be better


As many of us have been saying, examining homes sales and declining supply without accounting for price is foolish. Oh well, I'm sure the realtor endorsed Cromford Report will say otherwise. The article also states that values will improve next year so I think things are definitely moving in the positive direction. Should be fun reading

[sh9730]

Actually I trust assesor evaluations about as much as I trust zillow from a true "value" perspective. Also, as the article itself states, these values tend to be backward looking and the assesor expect values to start to increasing next year.

It is only recently that any real price increases have been occurring, too late for the county evaluations.

This is why we hated it when we had taxes that were higher than our values in 2008 and 2009....because of this backwards factor of assesor's valuations.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

"Residential-property values fell an average of 7.6 percent in 2011, compared with 11 percent in 2010, according to the latest report from the Maricopa County Assessor's Office. Though 2011 is the fifth year of value declines, it also shows that the rate of annual decline in values continues to slow."
Read more: Bad news on Phoenix area home valuations, but next year may be better


As many of us have been saying, examining homes sales and declining supply without accounting for price is foolish. Oh well, I'm sure the realtor endorsed Cromford Report will say otherwise. The article also states that values will improve next year so I think things are definitely moving in the positive direction. Should be fun reading

This is about assessed values from the county that lag real values by one or more years. It has nothing to do with market increases that we are currently seeing. It is really rather irrelevant to anything other than taxes might drop a little next year. In contrast to this tidbit, the Cromford report provides data of REAL value to the readers.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

"Residential-property values fell an average of 7.6 percent in 2011, compared with 11 percent in 2010, according to the latest report from the Maricopa County Assessor's Office. Though 2011 is the fifth year of value declines, it also shows that the rate of annual decline in values continues to slow."
Read more: Bad news on Phoenix area home valuations, but next year may be better

As many of us have been saying, examining homes sales and declining supply without accounting for price is foolish. Oh well, I'm sure the realtor endorsed Cromford Report will say otherwise. The article also states that values will improve next year so I think things are definitely moving in the positive direction. Should be fun reading

Those of us who maintain subscriptions to the Cromford Report, and understand how to utilize the abundant data they provide, follow the prices very closely, along with all the other significant data they provide.

Price change in real estate will lag the Supply/Demand trend, as it has done for a couple of years. However, as of September 2011, with the continuing Supply decline and Demand increase, the Prices finally began to increase and have done so for a period of 6 months (during the slow season). Their forecast is for prices to continue increasing, at least for the next couple months, and probably for the balance of 2012.

Here is a statement from that article:

Quote=Catherine Reagor......Few Maricopa County homeowners will be surprised when they open their latest property valuations to learn that their homes are officially worth less than they were a year ago. It's the fifth straight year for annual drops in the region's home prices.

As Ponderosa stated, she is talking about tax assessor prices, which has no bearing on the market value of a home in the Phoenix Metro area. A decline in the tax assessment is really good news for home owners because it "usually" means a lower property tax bill for that year.

The article goes on to recognize the actual market price increases that have been happening:

Quote=Catherine Reagor......But based on home-price increases during the past few months, this could be the last of the declining numbers for some metro Phoenix homeowners.

Below, click on the thumbnail to see the chart (courtesy of the Cromford Report) showing the Median Price increase from $107k to $120k (+12%) since August 2011.

Here are the Price Per Square Foot Increases for the overall Phoenix market:

• $85.12..........Feb 15, 2012.....(2.2% increase over Jan 15)
• $83.59..........Jan 15, 2012
• $79.32..........Feb 15, 2011

The Cromford Report is forecasting a 5% increase in price per square foot from Feb 15 to March 15, to $89.35.

Pending Listings Price $85.02...Average price/sf Pending Listings February 15 for all Traditional, Short Sale and REO categories.

Broken into categories of Traditional, Short Sales and REO's, here are the Pending Listing price/sf averages:

• $112.50...Traditional sales price/sf
• $68.84.....Short sales
• $68.05.....REOs (up sharply from last month)

Pending Listing prices show at what price a listing attracts offers, and is an indication of price movement over the next couple of months. Because the Pending prices are increasing, the indication is that the Sold prices will increase. Also, the fact that more Traditional sales are being sold is another indication that sold prices will increase.

Traditional sales market share has increased from 41.3% to 43.5% of total sales.

NOTE:
The Median and Square Foot prices above are meant to measure the overall Phoenix Metro real estate market and therefore includes all types of residential properties in all price ranges throughout the Phoenix Metro area. Prices and trends may vary in different price ranges, cities, zip codes, and communities. Buyers and Sellers should study the overall market, plus the market in their price range and location.

[jimj]

Hey, I for one am THRILLED that my assessed value dropped over $10k!!!! Less tax is less tax. Nobody I know has ever looked at that value as a price tool, I do look at that value and hope it's low for my tax costs though.

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

This is about assessed values from the county that lag real values by one or more years. It has nothing to do with market increases that we are currently seeing. It is really rather irrelevant to anything other than taxes might drop a little next year. In contrast to this tidbit, the Cromford report provides data of REAL value to the readers.

Except "real values" are just as subjective and anyone can manipulate those values to achieve a certain outcome. There is no empiric and objective way to calculate "real" values, and that is a fact. All of these prices or values are essentially estimates. If you want to criticize county assessor values, you would have a strong argument to do so but the same can be said for "real values" The only truth is no one knows the true value of these homes.

It's really not a difficult process to understand. Home prices were lowered for them to sell hence the reason sales increased and supply decreased. If the same prices were offered in 2008, you would have seen the same phenomenon then. It's not rocket science. If you are offering homes at fire sale prices, they are going to sell and the data supports that. This is far different from the boom in which sales increased alongside pricing and home values.

[ReadyFreddy]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

Except "real values" are just as subjective and anyone can manipulate those values to achieve a certain outcome. There is no empiric and objective way to calculate "real" values, and that is a fact. All of these prices or values are essentially estimates. If you want to criticize county assessor values, you would have a strong argument to do so but the same can be said for "real values" The only truth is no one knows the true value of these homes.

Market values aren't subjective and can be readily observed. That's usually what people mean by 'real value', unless they're talking about the value in use, as in to themselves as a shelter.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

"Residential-property values fell an average of 7.6 percent in 2011, compared with 11 percent in 2010, according to the latest report from the Maricopa County Assessor's Office. Though 2011 is the fifth year of value declines, it also shows that the rate of annual decline in values continues to slow."
Read more: Bad news on Phoenix area home valuations, but next year may be better


As many of us have been saying, examining homes sales and declining supply without accounting for price is foolish. Oh well, I'm sure the realtor endorsed Cromford Report will say otherwise. The article also states that values will improve next year so I think things are definitely moving in the positive direction. Should be fun reading

I learned two things from this post.

1. The lagging assessed values are reflected from the real market drop in 2010 and part of calendar year 2011. I don't see any contradictions.

2. I've learned through word extrapolations and hidden suggestions, azriverfan's actual home value went down in 2011. I predict he is trying to sell his Chandler home but it's not priced right (yet). That is what the tea leaves are telling me.

[jimj]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

I learned two things from this post.

1. The lagging assessed values are reflected from the real market drop in 2010 and part of calendar year 2011. I don't see any contradictions.

2. I've learned through word extrapolations and hidden suggestions, azriverfan's actual home value went down in 2011. I predict he is trying to sell his Chandler home but it's not priced right (yet). That is what the tea leaves are telling me.

I think you need to set up a mystical tent and start selling fortunes! Heck the value of my home went down for most of 2011 which I've got to admit got me nervous. Then came the last quarter where it started to pick up.
As was stated prior, when you sell things at fire sale prices they will sell.
The thing is when there's no more or very little product and still demand prices have to rise which is where I think it is now.
Now all we have to hope for is that the new builds don't go nuts again.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by jimj

...Now all we have to hope for is that the new builds don't go nuts again.

Builders do a tremendous amount of advertising, and they get people excited about buying. But not everyone who looks at a new build and makes the decision to buy, will buy a new build.

I think the builders will help the market.