Philly Population as of 2008 (Philadelphia, York: real estate, crime, neighborhoods)

[waltlantz]

Sorry if this has been discussed before.

I was just wondering if people thought that the city was losing population due to flight or due to death of the elderly? I hear tell people are moving to the place due to MUCH lower housing prices compared with NYC and DC.

[bryson662001]

Originally Posted by waltlantz

Sorry if this has been discussed before.

I was just wondering if people thought that the city was losing population due to flight or due to death of the elderly? I hear tell people are moving to the place due to MUCH lower housing prices compared with NYC and DC.

One theory is that large family households are being replaced by smaller familys and singles and empty nesters in trendy neighborhoods. Public schools in the city are basicly worthless at best so as soon as you have kids it's off to the suburbs unless you are rich enough for private schools. Young adults without kids replace them, thus reducing the population. For every old person that dies someone else grows old so that is pretty steady.

[FindingZen]

Originally Posted by bryson662001

One theory is that large family households are being replaced by smaller familys and singles and empty nesters in trendy neighborhoods. Public schools in the city are basicly worthless at best so as soon as you have kids it's off to the suburbs unless you are rich enough for private schools. Young adults without kids replace them, thus reducing the population. For every old person that dies someone else grows old so that is pretty steady.

I agree with Bryson's points, save perhaps that IMO there are some diamonds in the rough that is the Philadelphia School District.

I believe the metro as a whole is growing. Most of the job growth tends to occur out in the 'burbs, especially around King of Prussia, Fort Washington, Exton, etc. There are also long-haul commuters to the NYC area looking for more affordable housing. There may be some Delaware commuters who live across the state line in PA as well. Of course, a good portion of South Jersey is convenient to the city and is usually included with the Philly metro for statistical purposes.

[MoorestownResident]

Originally Posted by bryson662001

One theory is that large family households are being replaced by smaller familys and singles and empty nesters in trendy neighborhoods. Public schools in the city are basicly worthless at best so as soon as you have kids it's off to the suburbs unless you are rich enough for private schools. Young adults without kids replace them, thus reducing the population. For every old person that dies someone else grows old so that is pretty steady.

I think Philly proper will continue to lose population albeit at a slower pace than decades ago. The metro area is probably fairly stable with in-migration in the burbs, births somewhat offsetting deaths and out-migration. Like all major metro areas, it is fragmented. Philly is probably an extreme example for fragmentation however.

[bryson662001]

There is no question that the metro is growing and has never stopped growing, all be it more slowly then sunbelt cities. I think the OP was asking about the city proper and what is happening to those people.

[FindingZen]

True enough, bryson. Most cities proper aren't growing unless you're talking about Sun Belt cities like Phoenix and Houston with their milder weather and lower cost of living. Of course, you also have places like New York, Boston, Washington DC, Chicago and Los Angeles that are going to keep growing because of their regional/international status and reputation. Philly admittedly is not quite in the same league as these places.

[MoorestownResident]

If you believe the data, population growth in the metro area is up about 2.5% since 2000. This is low growth, stable environment, and pales by comparison to the sunbelt. The City of Phoenix now has a larger population than Philly proper.

[waltlantz]

Sunbelt cities are wierd in that there growth is easier due to different layouts. Philly can only go up and that has been the case for decades. Houston and Phoenix shot up due to spreading out.

As for Economic Health, Delaware Valley is fairly healthy but not really growing all that much either.

Houston is giving the place a run for it's money in buisness and diversification.

Phoenix, seems like it has been too reliant on real estate.

As for Philly itself it's an overall decent city, fairly healthy but not NYC, LA, or Chicago. It needs to restructre itself, clean up and get better PR, it does decently but could be doing A LOT better given it's assets.

[MoorestownResident]

I think the City of Philly's situation is nearly hopeless, frankly. You can't do anything without education and public schools are a disaster. Until they fix the schools and lower crime (both are related), nothing positive will happen to the City's image.

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by Tone509

True enough, bryson. Most cities proper aren't growing unless you're talking about Sun Belt cities like Phoenix and Houston with their milder weather and lower cost of living. Of course, you also have places like New York, Boston, Washington DC, Chicago and Los Angeles that are going to keep growing because of their regional/international status and reputation. Philly admittedly is not quite in the same league as these places.

Just wanted to piggyback off of this comment.

In its current state, you'd be right -- but I think that Philadelphia is definitely repositioning itself to regain an international status that will allow it to not only offset population loss but achieve population gain. The former is already beginning to occur.

I think, if you were to compare the city to the one's you've mentioned, one of the key differences is the role that immigration has played in stemming population losses. New York, of course, has always been a primary destination for immigrants, and cities like Chicago, DC and Boston have begun to leverage their assets to attract new immigrants to the city, which no doubt keep their local economies stimulated and ahead of Philadelphia in terms of revitalizing their urban cores post-deindustrialization.

This report by Brookings shows how Philadelphia is beginning to re-emerge as the immigration destination it once had been up until the mid-twentieth century. If the city can continue to attract highly-educated and entrepreneurial people from abroad (not to mention retaining local ones), I can certainly see Philly reversing the decades-old trend of population loss and even begin to bolster its economic climate. Following this model is what kept older cities like Boston and Chicago in better shape, and it can work for Philadelphia.