Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh (Chester, New Castle, King of Prussia: condo, high crime, townhomes)

[Blackbeauty212]

Originally Posted by MarketStEl

Both Allegheny County and the metro area lost population from 2010 through 2015. Neither statement held true for either Philadelphia County or the Philadelphia metropolitan area. I hear there may have been an uptick in the City of Pittsburgh these past two years, and that's good news, but like the high-tech surge, it takes place against a backdrop of continuing decline, which was the point of those two articles.

Allegheny's and WPA's for that matter population decline is because of a Legacy of High Elderly population that is is Dying or retiring to FL or wherever. There's a whole generation of people missing from the Pittsburgh MSA because of the Steel Industry collapse.

Migration into Allegheny and Pittsburgh is what is offsetting the High Elderly Losses.. While Births are still nil.

The Outer Counties of the Metros (Beaver, Westmoreland, Fayette, Armstrong, etc), don't have the migration rates to them to offset the Elderly decline, so they continue to post steep losses.

Pittsburgh (the city) has 2nd highest % of Millennials of its total population, only Boston is higher. It it has the 3rd highest rate of inbound Millennials moving here. Yet as you pointed out its just barely enough to offset the loss of Pittsburgh's past. And does nothing for the rest of the metro, until Allegheny county become that unaffordable that its starts pushing population to the outer counties.

You've heard me say over and over again, Pittsburgh is in culture war that is dynamically changing this city before our eyes. It is literally is out with the Old and in with the New and that what showing (or NOT showing) in the numbers.

TL; DR - Pittsburgh population change consists of inward migration offsetting elderly deaths.

[Blackbeauty212]

Originally Posted by MarketStEl

Both Allegheny County and the metro area lost population from 2010 through 2015. Neither statement held true for either Philadelphia County or the Philadelphia metropolitan area. I hear there may have been an uptick in the City of Pittsburgh these past two years, and that's good news, but like the high-tech surge, it takes place against a backdrop of continuing decline, which was the point of those two articles.

Allegheny's and WPA's for that matter population decline is because of a Legacy of High Elderly population that is is Dying or retiring to FL or wherever. There's a whole generation of people missing from the Pittsburgh MSA because of the Steel Industry collapse.

Migration into Allegheny and Pittsburgh is what is offsetting the High Elderly Losses.. While Births are still nil.

The Outer Counties of the Metros (Beaver, Westmoreland, Fayette, Armstrong, etc), don't have the migration rates to them to offset the Elderly decline, so they continue to post steep losses.

Pittsburgh (the city) 2 highest rate of Millennials in population. It it has the 3rd highest rate of inbound Millennials moving here. Yet as you pointed out its just barely enough to offset the loss of Pittsburgh's past. And does nothing for the rest of the metro, until Allegheny county become that unaffordable that its starts pushing population to the outer counties.

You've heard me say over and over again, Pittsburgh is in culture war that is dynamically changing this city before our eyes. It is literally is out with the Old and in with the New and that what showing (or NOT showing) in the numbers.

TL; DR - Pittsburgh population change consists of inward migration offsetting elderly deaths.


So I'm sorry you can't just look at Raw growth rate numbers. Philadelphia isn't missing a whole generation of people like the Burgh is. If Pittsburgh didn't have a generational gap its rate of growth would be much easier seen in raw numbers.

[RightonWalnut]

Full year of 2016 job report is out

Philadelphia City

From Dec. 2015 to Dec. 2016, the city added 13,700 jobs. The total jobs in the city now city at 711,200. Emphasis that this is just the city itself, not the entire metro. By sector, growth looked like this:

Education and Health Services: +6,500
Leisure and Hospitality: +5,900
Professional and Business Services: +1,400
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities: +1,000
Financial Activities: +400
Mining, Logging, and Construction: +100
Government: -200
Other Services: -400
Manufacturing: -400
Information: -600

https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atla.../ro3fx9532.htm

Philadelphia Region

+41,300 jobs from Dec. 2015 to Dec. 2016. The region now has 2,920,500 total jobs. This is MSA only, and is not including the CSA counties.

Professional and Business Services: +11,800
Education and Health Services: +11,700
Leisure and Hospitality: +7,300
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities: +5,800
Financial Activities: +2,300
Manufacturing: +1,800
Mining, Logging, and Construction: +1,200
Other Services: +600
Government: -100
Information: -1,100

So overall, 1/3 of all net new jobs in the region are in Philadelphia

https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atla.../ro3fx9527.htm

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by RightonWalnut

Oh, they all 100% have wealthy suburbs, there is no doubt about that. Philadelphia just has more, and Philadelphia's highest income ZIP Codes usually hit higher Median Income Household numbers than the others.

Highest Median Household Income ZIP Codes
Philadelphia - 19066 - $193,804
Baltimore - 21029 - $182,157
Pittsburgh - 15142 - $151,589
Detroit - 48374 - $147,536
Cleveland - 44236 - $118,891

https://www.incomebyzipcode.com/pennsylvania/19106

Interestingly enough I ran numbers a few years ago, and the North Hills (Northern Allegheny/Southern Butler County) average income is now near equal to the Traditional Main Line.

Sewickley Heights - $228,958 (Wealthiest Municipality in Pennsylvania)
Sewickley Hills - $113,500
Franklin Park - $115,278
Ohio Township - $102,212
Bell Acres - $115,479
Cranberry - $101,963
Seven Fields - $102,470
Adams Township - $105,977
Marshall Township - $119,776
Bradford Woods - $102,308
Pine Township - $143,773
Richland Township - $101,061

It's quite amazing at the growth (Population wise, and wealth as well) in the past 15 years. These 12 municipalities are the size of Delaware County and the entire area has incomes of $100,000+.

If Treesdale was a separate CPD, like Villanova or Berwyn, I would estimate the median income of nearly $300,000.

[RightonWalnut]

Here is the Pittsburgh Region. Unfortunately - for whatever reason - they don't release the city of Pittsburgh only. We will probably not get county break owns for a few more months to see how Allegheny County performed.

Pittsburgh Region

+4,400 jobs from Dec. 2015 to Dec. 2016. The region now has 1,173,400 jobs total. This is MSA only and does not include the CSA counties.

Professional and Business Services: +5,200
Educational and Health Services: +2,300
Leisure and Hospitality: +1,500
Other Services: +800
Government: +700
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities: -400
Manufacturing: -500
Financial Activities: -600
Information: -600
Construction: -1,800
Mining and Logging: -2,200

https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atla.../ro3fx9529.htm

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by MarketStEl

Both Allegheny County and the metro area lost population from 2010 through 2015. Neither statement held true for either Philadelphia County or the Philadelphia metropolitan area. I hear there may have been an uptick in the City of Pittsburgh these past two years, and that's good news, but like the high-tech surge, it takes place against a backdrop of continuing decline, which was the point of those two articles.

That is simply just not true. Why must you lie about factual information even though I corrected someone (possibly you) up thread.

Allegheny County
2010: 1,223,348
2015: 1,230,459

Philadelphia has modest gains as well, but Allegheny is doing fine. Much better than 2000-2010.

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by RightonWalnut

Here is the Pittsburgh Region. Unfortunately - for whatever reason - they don't release the city of Pittsburgh only. We will probably not get county break owns for a few more months to see how Allegheny County performed.

Pittsburgh Region

+4,400 jobs from Dec. 2015 to Dec. 2016. The region now has 1,173,400 jobs total. This is MSA only and does not include the CSA counties.

Professional and Business Services: +5,200
Educational and Health Services: +2,300
Leisure and Hospitality: +1,500
Other Services: +800
Government: +700
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities: -400
Manufacturing: -500
Financial Activities: -600
Information: -600
Construction: -1,800
Mining and Logging: -2,200

https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atla.../ro3fx9529.htm

Keep in mind the losses in Mining and Logging and Construction ALL incrude the Gas Industry leaving Pennsylvania. Those are metro number than are including far flung areas losing jobs, not the core.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by speagles84

Keep in mind the losses in Mining and Logging and Construction ALL incrude the Gas Industry leaving Pennsylvania. Those are metro number than are including far flung areas losing jobs, not the core.

Those construction numbers are going to surge once the cracker plant starts construction later this year. Once a well is dug, I'm guessing there really isn't much of a need employment wise to keep it going as there was to drill it, correct?

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

Those construction numbers are going to surge once the cracker plant starts construction later this year.

The Stell Project is the single largest investment in Pennsylvania history. Beaver County will be booming by 2025. I'm excited to see it's comeback.

Exactly. Plus, it's just not as profitable to drill in PA now without the Gas industry's buddy Corbett in office.

[cpomp]

Originally Posted by speagles84

Interestingly enough I ran numbers a few years ago, and the North Hills (Northern Allegheny/Southern Butler County) average income is now near equal to the Traditional Main Line.

Sewickley Heights - $228,958 (Wealthiest Municipality in Pennsylvania)
Sewickley Hills - $113,500
Franklin Park - $115,278
Ohio Township - $102,212
Bell Acres - $115,479
Cranberry - $101,963
Seven Fields - $102,470
Adams Township - $105,977
Marshall Township - $119,776
Bradford Woods - $102,308
Pine Township - $143,773
Richland Township - $101,061

It's quite amazing at the growth (Population wise, and wealth as well) in the past 15 years. These 12 municipalities are the size of Delaware County and the entire area has incomes of $100,000+.

If Treesdale was a separate CPD, like Villanova or Berwyn, I would estimate the median income of nearly $300,000.

Keep in mind the Main Line is not the only wealthy region in the Philadelphia area. You have dozens of very high income zipcodes in Delaware, Chester, Bucks, and Montgomery Counties outside of the Main Line. And that doesn't include Northern DE and SJ zipcodes.


And also keep in mind that a lot of those posted municipalities near Pittsburgh have under 1,000 residents, Lower Merion as a whole is over 60,000 people and still maintains very high income numbers. Gladwyne is around 5000 residents I believe.


There are definitely very wealthy areas around Pittsburgh, but in the larger picture the Philadelphia suburbs are more uniformly wealthy with larger pockets of ultra affluence. There's a reason why dozens of extremely high end stores keep opening in King of Prussia, because the money is there.