More 2010 Census (meso)facts about Pennsylvania (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh: taxes, statistics, title)

[Craziaskowboi]

Remember back in 1990 when those who hated Pennsylvania pointed out that it was the second-oldest state in the country and had the highest native-born percentage of any state in the U.S., and because of those two things, people were "fleeing in droves"? Well, according to the 2010 Census, wrong, wrong and wrong, respectively.

Pennsylvania now has the fourth-highest percentage of native-born residents, behind Iowa, Michigan and Ohio. (Iowa surpassed it in 2000.) There's an interesting graph on page 42 of the link I provided, illustrating the native-born percentage trends of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida. Pennsylvania's native-born percentage actually peaked way back in 1970, and has been falling since. On the other hand, Michigan's has been increasing since 1930, and surpassed Pennsylvania this past decade. Also interesting is that Florida's native-born percentage, while still very low, has increased since 1990.

As for migration, there's a chart listing the 10 largest migration flows from one state to another between 2009 and 2010, with New Jersey to Pennsylvania being the fifth-largest of all. Only California to Texas, New York to Florida, Florida to Georgia and California to Arizona had bigger numbers. (It's also known that New York to Pennsylvania is a pretty large flow, according to previous American Community Surveys.)

As for the elderly percentage, I kind of lied a bit in the first paragraph because the 2010 Census hasn't released any information on age. It was the third-oldest state in the U.S. in 2000 behind only Florida and Maine, but I saw projections a couple of years ago estimating that Pennsylvania would be the sixth-oldest state in 2010, and that the state's elderly population growth percentage by 2030 would be the lowest of all 50 states.

So now you know the (meso)facts. No, Pennsylvanians aren't sticks in the mud like they were 20 years ago. No, Pennsylvanians aren't old and decrepit like they were 20 years ago. No, people aren't "fleeing Pennsylvania in droves" anymore. (Let New York, New Jersey, Ohio, Michigan and Illinois worry about it instead.) I'll even make a bold prediction now, and say that Pennsylvania will have the most dramatic demographic shifts of all 12 U.S. states with a population of 8,000,000+ people by 2020. You heard it here first.

[SteelCityRising]

Gnutella, as our forum's resident expert on demographic trend analysis do you foresee PA regaining its former prominence of being the nation's fifth-most-populated state from Illinois, and, if so, when? I've heard that the 2010 Census showed a major decrease in population for the City of Chicago, and, no offense, but I can't imagine much of the rest of the state (Quad Cities, Peoria, Springfield, Carbondale, Champaign/Urbana, Normal, etc.) growing all that rapidly either. Barring a resurgence of the ChicagoLand urban sprawl could PA be poised to overtake IL again in 2020?

Additionally, if I'm not mistaken Philadelphia's slight growth helped it to surpass Phoenix in 2010 to reclaim the title of the nation's fourth-largest city behind NYC, L.A., and Chicago. Do you continue to foresee Philadelphia pulling ahead of Phoenix through 2020, or do you see Phoenix bumping Philadelphia back off again?

Finally, do you predict that the 2020 Census will show Pittsburgh's population to have grown or dropped from its current 2010 population of roughly 305,000? Psychologically it would be a huge blow to see our population slip under 300,000.

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

Gnutella, as our forum's resident expert on demographic trend analysis do you foresee PA regaining its former prominence of being the nation's fifth-most-populated state from Illinois, and, if so, when? I've heard that the 2010 Census showed a major decrease in population for the City of Chicago, and, no offense, but I can't imagine much of the rest of the state (Quad Cities, Peoria, Springfield, Carbondale, Champaign/Urbana, Normal, etc.) growing all that rapidly either. Barring a resurgence of the ChicagoLand urban sprawl could PA be poised to overtake IL again in 2020?

Additionally, if I'm not mistaken Philadelphia's slight growth helped it to surpass Phoenix in 2010 to reclaim the title of the nation's fourth-largest city behind NYC, L.A., and Chicago. Do you continue to foresee Philadelphia pulling ahead of Phoenix through 2020, or do you see Phoenix bumping Philadelphia back off again?

Finally, do you predict that the 2020 Census will show Pittsburgh's population to have grown or dropped from its current 2010 population of roughly 305,000? Psychologically it would be a huge blow to see our population slip under 300,000.

Unless Illinois grows very slowly in the 2010's, I don't see Pennsylvania passing it in population. Right now, Illinois has ~125,000 more people, and even though Pennsylvania grew at a slightly higher rate during the 2000's (3.4% to 3.3%), it only gained on Illinois by ~15,000 residents. That's actually impressive, given the disparity between birth rates in each state (Pennsylvania's is much lower), but I just don't see Pennsylvania adding 125,000 more people than Illinois during the 2010's. With that said, I do see Pennsylvania gaining faster on Illinois, given that Illinois has an insolvent and corrupt state government, and whoever's left with the mess probably has no choice but to raise taxes and restructure, which will probably inhibit economic growth and drive more people out of the state.

Phoenix will grow much slower during the 2010's than it did during the 2000's, but it will likely surpass Philadelphia in population anyway, especially given the disparity between birth rates in each city (Philadelphia's is much lower). I do believe, however, that Philadelphia will continue to grow during the 2010's, and the notion of the city as some decrepit, crime-ridden hellhole will continue to wither away, and the city will finally be recognized as being cosmopolitan and world-class. As for Pittsburgh, if population trends keep going the way they're going, then I actually think that Pittsburgh's population trend will flatten out during the 2010's, hopefully not falling below 300,000, and the metropolitan area will have a small increase, something on the order of 1% to 2%.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

Gnutella, as our forum's resident expert on demographic trend analysis do you foresee PA regaining its former prominence of being the nation's fifth-most-populated state from Illinois, and, if so, when? I've heard that the 2010 Census showed a major decrease in population for the City of Chicago, and, no offense, but I can't imagine much of the rest of the state (Quad Cities, Peoria, Springfield, Carbondale, Champaign/Urbana, Normal, etc.) growing all that rapidly either. Barring a resurgence of the ChicagoLand urban sprawl could PA be poised to overtake IL again in 2020?

Additionally, if I'm not mistaken Philadelphia's slight growth helped it to surpass Phoenix in 2010 to reclaim the title of the nation's fourth-largest city behind NYC, L.A., and Chicago. Do you continue to foresee Philadelphia pulling ahead of Phoenix through 2020, or do you see Phoenix bumping Philadelphia back off again?

Finally, do you predict that the 2020 Census will show Pittsburgh's population to have grown or dropped from its current 2010 population of roughly 305,000? Psychologically it would be a huge blow to see our population slip under 300,000.

I could see PA gaining over Illinois again. The only reason they gained over PA was the state grew very fast in the 90s for some reason while our state didn't. Illinois isn't doing too well right now and I'd rather be in PA than Illinois anyway with their corruption and refusal to accept things with spending need to change. I'd say PA would still be the fifth largest state and have over 13 million people if it wasn't for the steel bust that unfortunately caused many to leave Pittsburgh.

[Ohiogirl81]

Originally Posted by Gnutella

Remember back in 1990 when those who hated Pennsylvania pointed out that it was the second-oldest state in the country and had the highest native-born percentage of any state in the U.S.

Quoting statistics now qualifies as hating?

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by Ohiogirl81

Quoting statistics now qualifies as hating?

Not necessarily. I was aware of the statistics, but they never caused me to hate the place. But maybe that's because I'm on a higher plane, so I understood the concept of demographic phasing before most people did (many still don't), and realized that it wouldn't be that way for long.