Has the housing market bubble burst? (Orlando: renting, new house, to buy)

[beckycat]

The value of homes has significantly dropped in the past couple of months. I hope that's not the prediction in the near future. (2-4 months) Just in the past month Zillow says my house has gone down $21,000. I know people say that's not an accurate site, but it's pretty darn close to what people are listing for. Does anyone think the values will pick up with the spring nearing? I know that's usually when people start to look and buy b/c they want to get in before the kids go back to school in the fall. I know there is a large inventory so there is alot of competition out there. What sets your house aside from others? I'm not looking to make a goldmine, but I'd like to make some profit and walk away with a decent downpayment for my next house. I really want to sell now, but I'm contimplating whether or not to hold off until we see a positive incline in the market.

[pianogal]

Why do you need to sell? With the large inventory - you'll almost certainly be selling at rock bottom price. If you can wait awhile - probably a few years - things should get better. However, if you need to sell in the next couple of years - you may as well go ahead and do it now. Unfortunately, I don't see things improving in the near future.

[beckycat]

We just want to move closer to family. It's not anything bad about here, b/c as a matter of a fact, I do like it here. We are ready for a change. My daughter is graduating high school this year and my son will be going into high school next year and we thought it would be a good time. It makes it tough to pull them out of high school in the middle of 11th or 12th grade.

[cflfan]

well there are 2 schools of thought. I think myself the market will start to pick up in 6 to 12 months time. Some say this is nonsense, but i think this is realistic with the clients im working with. If you really need or want to sell now, you should consider the following though. People are very negative about what realtors have to say etc etc, but i would leave you with this thought. Whilst you might not make alot of money on your current property, with the huge inventory out there and people lowering their prices, the liklihood is the next property you purchase you will be able to buy for alot less now than at some point down the line, thus makeing your next purchase alot less than you would pay in the future. Now although you may only break even on your current property, if your intending to upgrade to a larger property, then the slump in the market would mean you will get more house for your money now.

Hope this helps

[traysea]

my two cents (since you asked) ...
I left Orlando in January 03, sold almost 2 year home for 230k and it was really nice with no HOA.. 2 story southern style colonial with big wrap around porch and detached 2 car garage. The house is valued on paper around 475k. Houses in similar value to mine back in 03' are still marketed 400k +.

I just sold my old house outside Cincy after 7 months on the market. I lost over 10% in value from 2005 to 2008 and will come to closing with 30k just to get out of the house.

Since we never see any more then 3% increase year to year in Cincy.. I predict that Orlando's market is going to drop to 2002 or 2003 levels. If not, then rents are still way out of whack. (I am renting a new house in a cute community for 1400 per month and that includes water and yard). The identical house across the street is listed for 385k.

As a comparison.. I could of rented my house in KY for 1600 per month... Something is out of whack and I think that means housing prices have a slow decline to make over the next two years .
Location and layout/uniquieness will win out over the tract housing...

Good luck

[beckycat]

I have the same thought. The only thing is that where we are moving to, the market is slowly going up. It would be one thing if you were going with comparables. I'm just hoping, in my case, it will work out that way.