All-Time Low Crime Stats for Fairfax (Arlington, Merrifield: credit, home, construction)

[JD984]

WaPo rePorted that Fairfax has released some statistics recently indicating that crime had hit an all-time low in Fairfax last year - dating back to the early 70s when the county first began to report such statistics. Like the report that there had been no murders in Arlington in 2011, this is one of these reports that speaks favorably to the safety of NoVa, both in absolute terms and compared to some metropolitan areas and cities where crime rates actually have started to spike again.

Fairfax County crime hit all-time low in 2011 - The State of NoVa - The Washington Post

[tysonsengineer]

Crime will continue to trend down as long as the economy is good in Fairfax. Just like in DC (whose violence rate has continued to go down as the city GDP and % of owners goes up).

I think one thing that is also helping is the continual investment that is coming into Fairfax. Previous trouble areas like Merrifield are become renewed because new projects are coming in, pumping millions into the area, new retail spaces, cleaning up/lighting up former poor walking areas. I have been reporting the trend that most people disregard in the US which is that continued urbanization in mixed use developments is reducing crime by creating inherent surveillance. When you have a building which has an activated citizen in it 24 hours a day (during the day by retail or office, dusk by restaurants, and nights by residents) you create a significant crime reduction entity.

Crime happens where people en mass arent in many cases. In DC the crime statistically happens to people travelling alone on poorly lit and less traversed corridors. Taken on a mass scale the same can be said for an entire region.

Either way, both Arlington and Fairfax's crime rates are the jewel of inner suburbs in America and should be viewed by other regions around the country that share this characteristic as a model to reduce crime in my opinion.

[smithy77]

Crime is lower overall in the entire metro area these days. My theory is that the drug of choice for people who are inclined is pot. Pot users (it was a loooooong time ago, kids) just want to sit around and eat cookies and listen to music and say profound things that aren't that profound. They're not the kind of people who start fights or break into someone's home, etc.. When crack was king 20 years ago, I thought the District was an insane asylum. Crime everywhere. I'm not advocating its legalization, but if you're going to have a drug of choice out there, pot's the one you want.

I remember there were years in Fairfax County (80's or 90's) when there were no murders. In fact, I think Fairfax County has the lowest crime rate of any jurisdiction in the country with over a million people.

[CAVA1990]

Here's one take on why crime rates have declined:

http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levi...alized2001.pdf

I've always wondered why the Repub law and order types aren't more pro-choice.

[snowdenscold]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

Here's one take on why crime rates have declined:

http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levi...alized2001.pdf

I've always wondered why the Repub law and order types aren't more pro-choice.

Because sometimes a society isn't willing to accept the moral consequences necessary to see a desired social change. For (an extreme) example, you could eliminate overnight the problem of people driving over the speed limit by introducing summary executions at roadside stops, but clearly we're not going to do that.


Furthermore, they help explain why crime rates were reduced starting in the 90's as compared to the 80's - that was 20 years ago. It doesn't help explain any changes in the past 1, 2, or 5-10 years as Roe is still in effect.

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by snowdenscold

Because sometimes a society isn't willing to accept the moral consequences necessary to see a desired social change. For (an extreme) example, you could eliminate overnight the problem of people driving over the speed limit by introducing summary executions at roadside stops, but clearly we're not going to do that.


Furthermore, they help explain why crime rates were reduced starting in the 90's as compared to the 80's - that was 20 years ago. It doesn't help explain any changes in the past 1, 2, or 5-10 years as Roe is still in effect.

Sure it does and we've already made that moral choice since Roe is still in full force. There are now fewer of those kids around to have kids (the effects compound over generations) plus there's now greater access to (anti) reproductive services including in the schools. Those in favor of choice and better access to contraception should be pointing to this as vindication and should be arguing that if we let the right wingers like Cuccnelli and Ryan have their way crime rates will likely increase or at least level off.

I'd also add that with the decline in home construction activity, there are probably fewer less-educated young single males in the area. They are the predominant crime committing segment of the population. It's all about (changing) demographics.

[car54]

Hey, let's give FCPD a little credit here!

They have a "rep" around the area that no doubt leads some violent criminals to conclude that there's easier pickings elsewhere...

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by car54

Hey, let's give FCPD a little credit here!

They have a "rep" around the area that no doubt leads some violent criminals to conclude that there's easier pickings elsewhere...

I doubt that's changed much in the past 20 years.

[dkf747]

Isn't that claim just playing with numbers? The chart in the article does show some decrease, but they don't look to be a huge difference compared to the year before. I'm just wondering why totaling the major crimes is considered to yield a meaningful number? I'm not complaining. Any decrease is good.

[JD984]

Originally Posted by dkf747

Isn't that claim just playing with numbers? The chart in the article does show some decrease, but they don't look to be a huge difference compared to the year before. I'm just wondering why totaling the major crimes is considered to yield a meaningful number? I'm not complaining. Any decrease is good.

I think it is adding the numbers of the seven major categories of reported crimes that have been tracked for decades, rather than "playing" with them. Perhaps a fair question to ask might be whether, as the demographics of the county have changed, some current residents are less likely to report certain types of crimes than residents in the past. But it does seem meaningful that the number of crimes has declined even as the population has continued to grow.