Are home prices in NoVA going to crash? (Arlington, Burke: for sale, foreclosures)

[TechRider]

Originally Posted by normie

FWIW I've been on this forum for many years. Every six months or so someone comes along, convinced that we're about to see some big real estate crash. Usually it turns out to be wishful thinking. They want to buy a house and are hoping to wait for the big price drop. Most times they give up because the big crash that's supposedly right around the corner never seems to happen.

Before an election, politicians spout and spout about making drastic cuts. It's all big talk to get elected, but in reality it's not that easy, it doesn't happen often, and when it does it doesn't last for long. Sort of like closing the rest rooms along the interstate. It wasn't even a year before they decided the budget savings weren't worth having closed restrooms. Big whoop.

In addition, Va has more contractors than federal employees and they can always switch to other types of contracts if necessary. Moving a company is expensive, so unless the state passes some stupid new taxes I doubt we'll see many companies moving out.

+1

I agree with what you said (most of it).

Should I wish for a housing crash..Absolutely..why not..I am a prospective buyer and would like to get in bargain.(NO offense)

But..it ain't happening IMHO. I don't see a mercurial drop either..It will be a slow-po drop/stagnant for a while

[brooklynborndad]

Originally Posted by normie

FWIW I've been on this forum for many years. Every six months or so someone comes along, convinced that we're about to see some big real estate crash. Usually it turns out to be wishful thinking.

there's wishful thinking both ways, and one time those expecting a crash were right, and we are, still living with the ramifications of that, around the US and around the world.

I do not expect a crash. I think the possibility that there will be some fallback in prices in this region is quite real, and is worth discussing.

[Deeman804]

Originally Posted by saganista

I think that prices will continue to be set at the levels that individual buyers and sellers can agree upon. Most of these care not one whit how big New York City is or what the temperature in California might be. Real estate is a local market. There is meanwhile no external body moving area home prices up or down and no external means for determining what a particular home is actually "worth". Furthermore, the looming "cuts" that you and some others seem to envision amount to reductions on paper in rates of growth with the bulk of them even at that level being backloaded to ten years from now and beyond.

Disagreed. It will happen, since this environment is still based on the Post-9-11 spending. The real question isn't if cuts (especially in DHS and DoD) will happen but rather how soon and how deep.

[khuntrevor]

"Almost half the new jobs being created these days are in Government"
"How long can the nongovernment workers support Uncle Sam's work force?"
--Barry Goldwater, 1976

[TechRider]

Originally Posted by khuntrevor

"Almost half the new jobs being created these days are in Government"
"How long can the nongovernment workers support Uncle Sam's work force?"
--Barry Goldwater, 1976

And it still holds good

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by normie

FWIW I've been on this forum for many years. Every six months or so someone comes along, convinced that we're about to see some big real estate crash. Usually it turns out to be wishful thinking. They want to buy a house and are hoping to wait for the big price drop. Most times they give up because elections come and go, different parties take control, yet the big crash that's supposedly right around the corner never seems to happen.

Before an election, politicians spout and spout about making drastic cuts. It's all big talk to get elected, but in reality it's not that easy. Most cuts never happen, and the few that do get put in place often don't last for long. Sort of like closing the rest rooms along the interstate. It wasn't even a year before they decided the budget savings weren't worth having closed restrooms.

In addition, Va has more contractors than federal employees and they can always switch to other types of contracts if necessary. Moving a company is expensive and a highly trained work force is in place here (more important than you might think). Rents aren't as big of a deal as you might think and are often negotiable; companies might move in a metro area but they don't tend to move out of state unless taxes become a problem.

Hey Normie, howya doing! I recall you moved to GA; did you move back to NOVA? We left Chantilly in 2005 and do NOT want to go back east, except maybe for funerals and crabcakes in Baltimore.

I've a few people here in my COLO forums who have been preaching doom and gloom since they joined in 2007 that the bottom is going to fall out - any day now - and they'll be mobs going door to door killing for food, etc. That's what they get for reading nonsense like Kuntsler's blog, and others of that ilk.

I checked rental prices in NOVA last week for a person here in COLO who's moving there for 3 years; the prices were so high I did a double take. For rentals, I use padmapper.com to find them, a really cool tool.

I don't think home prices are going to crash in NOVA. Interest rates are at an all-time low (4% or less) and housing prices have come down quite a bit. The house we sold in Chantilly in 2005 for $500k are now in the $350 price range, a 30% decline.

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

I don't think home prices are going to crash in NOVA. Interest rates are at an all-time low (4% or less) and housing prices have come down quite a bit. The house we sold in Chantilly in 2005 for $500k are now in the $350 price range, a 30% decline.

Well Mike, that's what you and other misinformed NoVA wannabes may think but I happen to talk to a lot of old-timers around here and they agree the days of high priced real estate are numbered. Once gas hits $10 a gallon and the Federal government goes bankrupt it'll be 1893 all over again. When the full weight of higher fuel costs, deteriorating roads, disappearing commercial air service, and higher prices for basic necessities (most of which have to be shipped in from someplace else) descends upon NoVA (and that WILL come--it's already starting), a lot of people will likely develop a much less favorable opinion of what a "paradise" this is.

[Flamingo13]

Is this a tongue-in-cheek response?

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by Flamingo13

Is this a tongue-in-cheek response?

Disclaimer for the above: I spend way too much time with Mike over on the CO forum.

[NOVA_almost_native]

Originally Posted by hilsmom

Further random thoughts, though - I have seen almost no houses come on the market in the past month in the areas we were looking. Things seem to be coming to a halt. Does anyone else sense that those who can move already have? I have no idea what that means for prices. Lending standards are tighter even though rates are low, there is very little inventory, and many potential move-up buyers are stuck.

I have noticed the same situation in neighborhoods I'm interested in. I've been following a couple of zip codes for two years or so, others for about a year, and the inventory is the lowest I've ever seen it. For the first time since I started looking in 2009, I wouldn't buy any of the houses available in my areas of interest. I certainly hope there is more available this spring... we may be selling and buying then.

Like others have said, I don't foresee another large, dramatic crash. Prices have risen a bit over the last two years in the neighborhoods I watch, while they've fallen in my own neighborhood. I expect prices to remain relatively stable as long as interest rates stay low and the economy is uncertain. (That's bad news for my selling situation but "good" news for my buying situation.)