Economist forecasts modest N.C. growth (Charlotte: real estate market, mortgage, home equity)

[Weis02]

Article in today's Business Journals that economists are predictly slower growth in the NC economy
It is not devasting - it is not meant to alarm anyone, just found it interesting and thoughts others would too. Alot of this is due to other factors, not all NC specific

Here is the link:

http://charlotte.bizjournals.com/cha...l?surround=lfn

Yet another article anticipates job growth in the charlotte area based on a manpower survery-

http://charlotte.bizjournals.com/cha...l?surround=lfn


So my point for this post is two-fold, just providing information for it's value, takes it for what is worth and to show how one forecasts states the entire NC economy will slow and another anticipates growth for the charlotte area.

So when these statistics and reports come out, and everyone is trying to compare a to b to c, you can't always do that because different areas and each area tells a story of it's own.

[a1m1700]

Originally Posted by Weis02

Article in today's Business Journals that economists are predictly slower growth in the NC economy
It is not devasting - it is not meant to alarm anyone, just found it interesting and thoughts others would too. Alot of this is due to other factors, not all NC specific

Here is the link:

http://charlotte.bizjournals.com/cha...l?surround=lfn

Yet another article anticipates job growth in the charlotte area based on a manpower survery-

http://charlotte.bizjournals.com/cha...l?surround=lfn


So my point for this post is two-fold, just providing information for it's value, takes it for what is worth and to show how one forecasts states the entire NC economy will slow and another anticipates growth for the charlotte area.

So when these statistics and reports come out, and everyone is trying to compare a to b to c, you can't always do that because different areas and each area tells a story of it's own.

One said it was down from 2005 and lower than what was projected but still a healthy job market.

I'm starting to see a lot of stories mentioning Phoenix and Charlotte side by side.

[RedNC]

The economy in general is starting to slow. That is what the fed wanted by increasing the interest rates. The rate increases take about 12 months to take effect, then if it’s too much the economy tanks. Problem is it takes a lot longer to get the economy going than to slow it down or stop it.

[thisguy]

Originally Posted by RedNC

The economy in general is starting to slow. That is what the fed wanted by increasing the interest rates. The rate increases take about 12 months to take effect, then if it’s too much the economy tanks. Problem is it takes a lot longer to get the economy going than to slow it down or stop it.

Yes the whole US is starting to slow. We have come from a 4-5 year period of up cycle in the economy (well it was up for the well off, it wasn't so great for middle class or below, but stastically it was considered a 'good economy')

Research is showing about 25% of the GDP of the US in past 5 year was due to the housing market, so just take down the growth of the home building spree and you already have a slowing economy. Throw on an "oil" tax of the past 12-18 months of seriously higher prices since Katrina, and then the natural ebb and flow of an economy and we are due for a downturn. Problem is fed fixed narrow problems with a very big blunt object (interest rates). Instead of fixing speculation in home prices by requiring 5% down (something minor) on ALL 2nd or investment homes, it increases interest rates 17x for the whole economy. Same thing it did in 2000 to slow down stock market speculation and it took us into a mini-recession there too.

As a sidenote, the joke amount economists is if you put 5 of them in a room you will get 6 opinions.... its the 'dismal science' !

So the economy as a whole is destined for a slowdown as the housing ATM is slowing down plus this oil "tax" we are all paying is slowing down consumers. More due to the former than the latter since taking out $40K out of your home equity boosts the economy a lot more than paying .30/gallon extra hurts. What is interesting is in anytime in the past when you had 6% long term mortgage rates you'd see no slowdown in home buying, but the historic low rates seen in 2003-2004 spurred a lot of "pull through" of buying (people who would wait to buy could not resist such low rates, and allowed them to buy when they normally could not), so a lot of the purchases that might of happened in 06, 07, 08 all got pulled ahead to 04/05/early 06.

I just still get amazed every time I think that a quarter of national OUTPUT is due to housing. So when housing catches the flu, its going to have a serious impact on the entire economy. Next phase will be a reduction in confidence by consumers as they read/see/experience these horror stories in real estate market and curb back their spending.... so it sort of feeds on itself. At least gas prices are dropping significantly the past 2 weeks but that can change on a dime, but for now its providing a nice cushion and will prop up confidence in the near term.

[a1m1700]

Originally Posted by thisguy

Yes the whole US is starting to slow. We have come from a 4-5 year period of up cycle in the economy (well it was up for the well off, it wasn't so great for middle class or below, but stastically it was considered a 'good economy')

Research is showing about 25% of the GDP of the US in past 5 year was due to the housing market, so just take down the growth of the home building spree and you already have a slowing economy. Throw on an "oil" tax of the past 12-18 months of seriously higher prices since Katrina, and then the natural ebb and flow of an economy and we are due for a downturn. Problem is fed fixed narrow problems with a very big blunt object (interest rates). Instead of fixing speculation in home prices by requiring 5% down (something minor) on ALL 2nd or investment homes, it increases interest rates 17x for the whole economy. Same thing it did in 2000 to slow down stock market speculation and it took us into a mini-recession there too.

As a sidenote, the joke amount economists is if you put 5 of them in a room you will get 6 opinions.... its the 'dismal science' !

So the economy as a whole is destined for a slowdown as the housing ATM is slowing down plus this oil "tax" we are all paying is slowing down consumers. More due to the former than the latter since taking out $40K out of your home equity boosts the economy a lot more than paying .30/gallon extra hurts. What is interesting is in anytime in the past when you had 6% long term mortgage rates you'd see no slowdown in home buying, but the historic low rates seen in 2003-2004 spurred a lot of "pull through" of buying (people who would wait to buy could not resist such low rates, and allowed them to buy when they normally could not), so a lot of the purchases that might of happened in 06, 07, 08 all got pulled ahead to 04/05/early 06.

I just still get amazed every time I think that a quarter of national OUTPUT is due to housing. So when housing catches the flu, its going to have a serious impact on the entire economy. Next phase will be a reduction in confidence by consumers as they read/see/experience these horror stories in real estate market and curb back their spending.... so it sort of feeds on itself. At least gas prices are dropping significantly the past 2 weeks but that can change on a dime, but for now its providing a nice cushion and will prop up confidence in the near term.

I am the middle class and it was very good for me.