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Shizzle...before you side with Super Wario..he has been "certain crime is about to explode" and that the city/Bronx is in a "downward spiral" for YEARS now..this is nothing new or an "honest opinion" from him. A clock is right twice a day...eventually SuperWario will be right. That being said..are we going to go down the road of X-files and government cover ups as to the MONUMENTAL decrease in crime over the past 18 years? Are you telling me it has been cops that are just making up numbers, and creating the perception that the city is safer and STILL safer than it has been in the past 50+ years? Let's be serious here..the city IS MUCH SAFER than it has been..not due to perception..perception does not allow me to safely walk through the projects to deposit my recyclables. Perception does not make 1,000 murders disappear so that the murder rate can be 500 or so. Perception does not make graffitti covered trains clean and graffitti free, it does not make parks free of obvious and flagrant prostitution/drug dealing, it does not allow me to walk home late at night withouth fear of being shot/stabbed/or otherwise attacked. What we have here is a REAL reduction in crime that has made the city's QOL skyrocket....will the crime rate go down forever? Heck no..and that's okay...because year to year variations are NORMAL...it is the LONG TERM TRENDS that matter..and the long term trend has been a greatly downward for crime. Maybe crime will go up this year, and thats normal..so long as we dont go from 500 murders to 1,000 murders...but going from 500 to 540 in 1 year for example, is a NORMAL variation, and although the papers and dommsdayers will exclaim the Percentage increase..but the reality is..it's normal. If we have year in and year out increases..THEN we have a problem. But as of yet..crime is down AGAIN for 2008...so what's the problem again?
Shizzle...before you side with Super Wario..he has been "certain crime is about to explode" and that the city/Bronx is in a "downward spiral" for YEARS now..this is nothing new or an "honest opinion" from him. A clock is right twice a day...eventually SuperWario will be right. That being said..are we going to go down the road of X-files and government cover ups as to the MONUMENTAL decrease in crime over the past 18 years? Are you telling me it has been cops that are just making up numbers, and creating the perception that the city is safer and STILL safer than it has been in the past 50+ years? Let's be serious here..the city IS MUCH SAFER than it has been..not due to perception..perception does not allow me to safely walk through the projects to deposit my recyclables. Perception does not make 1,000 murders disappear so that the murder rate can be 500 or so. Perception does not make graffitti covered trains clean and graffitti free, it does not make parks free of obvious and flagrant prostitution/drug dealing, it does not allow me to walk home late at night withouth fear of being shot/stabbed/or otherwise attacked. What we have here is a REAL reduction in crime that has made the city's QOL skyrocket....will the crime rate go down forever? Heck no..and that's okay...because year to year variations are NORMAL...it is the LONG TERM TRENDS that matter..and the long term trend has been a greatly downward for crime. Maybe crime will go up this year, and thats normal..so long as we dont go from 500 murders to 1,000 murders...but going from 500 to 540 in 1 year for example, is a NORMAL variation, and although the papers and dommsdayers will exclaim the Percentage increase..but the reality is..it's normal. If we have year in and year out increases..THEN we have a problem. But as of yet..crime is down AGAIN for 2008...so what's the problem again?
It seems like the topic of crime in NYC swings between these two hyperbolic extremes of NYC becoming like a Mad Max movie or becoming Norman Rockwell polyanna....
Look, do I believe we'll see murders in the 1500-2000 range again? No. However, this decline is just about over. I do see the trend heading back toward 800-900 a year before it going back down.
Long term will NYC crime go down? Yes. But over the next 5-10 years or so we aren't going to see crime declines. Also, murders are only part of the picture. Robbery is a real and increasing threat as is general filth becoming more prevelant. The simple truth is that people have come to expect an unrealistic picture of crime in the city. I believe we will see mid 90's type numbers. Not bad, but certainly not lower.
Also, keep in mind that the drug game has died down considerably. If another crack were to hit the streets, most cities would be in deep poo. NY is no exception.
Do I relish another crime wave? No. But it could happen. Screaming ALL IS WELL!!! only serves to make us be even more unprepared when the envietable hits, making it worse. You may have faith, but all these fickle white kids from Mod cut: languge USA/Europe aren't going to care what the NYPD says if their Ipod gets jacked. They're going to say OMG CRIME!!! and go running for the exits. Then we're really in trouble...
Last edited by Viralmd; 01-14-2009 at 10:40 AM..
Reason: Language
It seems like the topic of crime in NYC swings between these two hyperbolic extremes of NYC becoming like a Mad Max movie or becoming Norman Rockwell polyanna....
You may have faith, but all these fickle white kids from Mod cut: languge USA/Europe aren't going to care what the NYPD says if their Ipod gets jacked. They're going to say OMG CRIME!!! and go running for the exits. Then we're really in trouble...
That is so true about the extremist views. LOL...it's one way or the other, and rarely balanced.
Funny you should mention that about an iPod. A family member lives in The Slope and there was some issue about someone's iPod getting snatched a few months back, on the fringes of the neighborhood by degenerate youths. Well, before you know it, some of the Slope mommies were crying that they're not going to tolerate "gang violence!" at their get togethers. That sort of disproportionate reaction can happen, especially among those who are only familiar with the nicer "grittiness" of highly urban living environments.
Well I live in the community, aka Mott Haven, that youa re speaking of and I can tell you that it feels no less safe than last year, nor is there any noticeable increase in crime, either a feeling or from the stats. There IS a heavier police presence however, and that is a GOOD thing. SuperWario, although I udnerstand why you believe crime is going up in 2009, you cry wolf too often. Every year it is the same story..crime is about to explode..the Bronx is in a downward spiral and other such obvious misinformation...so you have 0 credibility. It is important to consider people's opinions who live in the communities, and not just the stats. However, just cuz they FEEL differently, or SEE more crime,does not mean crime is increasing. It could be anything! I look at the stats and there is 0 indication that crime is increasing...in fact crime continues to GO DOWN. So why do people keep pushing the idea that crime is going up? I don't get it. You are trying very hard to paint the Bronx as a brough in a "downward spiral" but the FACTS do not support you, nor does anyone else who lives in the borough, which includes myself.
You see, you live in a neighborhood that saw it's murder rate and robbery rate increase. So I really take what you're saying with a grain of salt. Now my precinct last year saw a 12% decrease in total crime, yours if I recall saw a total 1% increase. But the 40th precinct was one of the very few that saw increases. So that 1% is magnified. And by years what do you mean? I've only been here since 2007, and whenever crime has gone down in areas, im sure to mention it. But when it increases, and we have other factors, such as we have now, then I can predict an uptick in crime. Like I said, I think homicides will go up to 1999 levels. In other words, in the 650 range. I think this is a fair assesment, dont you?
Also you are not looking at the crime statistics in a proper matter. The murder rate, saw a significant increase from 496 to 523. Then what is really telling was that shootings were up and so where stabbings. But at the same time gun arrests and drug arrests where down. This means that more people have gun on the streets, people have easy access to sharp instruments, and the police arrested less of these people. And this is the problem with the dcreasing police force. There are going to be more people walking around with guns and knives. Now, with the economy being so bad, these people are going to be robbing others. The robbery is now an armed robbery. This assailant to stranger crime is what really made NYC stand out in crime back in the early 90's. Most of the crime today is commited by people who know each other. Less drug arrests means more drug crews coming up. And again with the economy, alot of "normal" people are going to see that the cops aren't going as hard at the drug dealers and they themselves will get into drug dealing. This causes more competition and you know the rest........
I also advise you all to pay more attention to the type of crimes, especially homicides. Recently, they have been a bit more heinous and unusual. For example, the bus driver getting killed (the off-duty one too), 300lbs mad man stabbing people, a 15 yr old girl cutting two men up into pieces etc etc.....
I see more graffiti, and new people on "the block" (which i think are new drug dealers), robberies, and prostitution. Now, I can't help but feel uneasy when I'm walking outside. But like others said, this is just an observation.
Last edited by DoubleXAs; 01-14-2009 at 12:41 PM..
Shizzles your opinions are so arbitrary...you see murders at 800-900 going forward...that seems like a random number..why not 1,200-1,400? Too much? Too Little? In the next 5-10 years you see crime going up? I could not disagree more...crime has been primarily in certain nieghborhoods, primarily in central brooklyn, Harlem, south/central bronx, etc...and it is these neighborhoods that are being stabilized with new working/middle class homes, developments, and people. The crime rates have been dropping dramatically over the past 15 years, and with that these communities have seen profound changes in safety, development, and in many cases demographics. What we have seen is ALL neighborhoods improving, ALL neighborhoods being developed and cleaned up, and not just prime districts and wealthier enclaves like before. The city is well positioned to keep crime rates low, the police force has shrunk significantly in the past 7 years, while crime rates have gone down significantly at the same time indicating an increasingly efficient/effective police force. I DO NOT see WHY murders would go up to 800-900 per year in the near future, nor have you indicated why that would happen...the numbers are very arbitrary based on? Your "feelings"? Gut? Give me a concrete reason instead of smoke and mirrors. 2008 was in fact a LOWER crime rate than 2007. PERIOD. Sure murders were up MARGINALLY but thats a normal variation..how do you erase the past 15 year long term trend of crime reductions based on 1 marginal increase in 1 stat over the prior year's record low rate? The reality is, crime MAY increase this year..but I ask again.. SO WHAT? That is NORMAL and the city will respond properly and clamp down.
I don't think we're going to see the drug wars like years of old. They drew far too much attention to the trade and ended up killing far too many profitiable dealers. Besides, most of the general public don't genuinley care about two crews offing each other.
But the real thing most NYers should be concerned about is robbery/assault. There is a lot of mentally ill back out on the streets/subways now that Bloomie has told the cops to lay off. They scare me more than anyone. Stick-up Crews roaming the subways/Manhattan looking for plum targets just like the 80s. More rapes.
That, along with the general rise in graffiti and trash, will be what ultametly does NYC in. Once Manhattan starts seeing a robbery rise, that's when you panic...
Hehe...so now that overall crime rates are down yet again, you are trying to scare people by focusing on the stat that increased marginally..is that right? Let's ignore everything....the dramatic reductions in crime over the past 15 years, the increased safety and QOL.....NOW WE REALLY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT ROBBERY ..they "scare me more than anyone." So now we are supposed to believe "stick up crews are going to be roaming the subways/MANHATTAN (Gasp!) looking for plum targets like the 80s..more rapes." I cannot believe the senseless fear mongering coming out of you..its actually laughable. I can only imagine what you would be saying if the actual crime rates for 2008 increased .00001%,.....you would be claiming that Bloomie is gonna be overthrown by the Bloods and install a new government with coke as the new currency. Ridiculous.
Hehe...so now that overall crime rates are down yet again, you are trying to scare people by focusing on the stat that increased marginally..is that right? Let's ignore everything....the dramatic reductions in crime over the past 15 years, the increased safety and QOL.....NOW WE REALLY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT ROBBERY ..they "scare me more than anyone." So now we are supposed to believe "stick up crews are going to be roaming the subways/MANHATTAN (Gasp!) looking for plum targets like the 80s..more rapes." I cannot believe the senseless fear mongering coming out of you..its actually laughable. I can only imagine what you would be saying if the actual crime rates for 2008 increased .00001%,.....you would be claiming that Bloomie is gonna be overthrown by the Bloods and install a new government with coke as the new currency. Ridiculous.
Why is this so hard to believe? And stop saying that overall crime rate is down. Have you ever heard of property crime? That is one of the reasons "crime was down". But why do you fail to mention that both homicides AND robberies where up? You have no way of responding so you choose to be sarcastic.
Mod cutyou can spend all day claiming that crime is secretly up and it is a big government conspiracy and we are all deluding ourselves because everyone is getting raped and robbed and we are all hypnotized by Obama to believe "yes we can" to keep believing we are safe when we are actually victimized every second of every minute of every day, and aliens are also victimizing us secretly and stealing our Wii playstations to dismantle the american family and destroy our civilization so that they can recolonize Earth and turn it back into the Planet Churfo, in which humans are mutated into insect like animals that exist only as food and entertainment for the aliens. Mod cut: attack
Last edited by Viralmd; 01-14-2009 at 02:36 PM..
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