Almanac predicts rough winter for Missouri

[imperialmog]

Wasn't last winter about as cold as it has been in the last decade? Remember seeing that in St. Louis it had the first temperature of zero degrees or colder for the first time in about 10 years. That is odd considering before around 1985 that was expected at least twice or so every year.

[lifelongMOgal]

Originally Posted by imperialmog

Wasn't last winter about as cold as it has been in the last decade? Remember seeing that in St. Louis it had the first temperature of zero degrees or colder for the first time in about 10 years. That is odd considering before around 1985 that was expected at least twice or so every year.

Missouri Weather - Average Temperatures and Rainfall

...Kansas City Winter Weather Statistics Page...

[imperialmog]

Actually on averages if I remember they use a 30 year average for data. One thing that I am not sure when they post averages is which 30 year period is being used since this will impact temperatures. One big difference is winter averages since there was a period of a number of winters in the 1970's and early 80's that throw off a lot of averages as lower than what they have been for a while now.

[ozarksboy]

Persimmon seeds indicate a lot of snow.Woolyworms are giving mixed signals.
The OLD Farmers Almanac (the one with the yellow cover and the hole in the corner so you can hang it on a nail on the wall of the outhouse) says Missouri is going to have a colder, but drier, winter than normal. However, that's a dang Yankee publication, so it is very likely wrong.

[lifelongMOgal]

Originally Posted by ozarksboy

Persimmon seeds indicate a lot of snow.Woolyworms are giving mixed signals.
The OLD Farmers Almanac (the one with the yellow cover and the hole in the corner so you can hang it on a nail on the wall of the outhouse) says Missouri is going to have a colder, but drier, winter than normal. However, that's a dang Yankee publication, so it is very likely wrong.

Northern Missouri is supposed to go from mid-50's today and drop to 4 degrees by tomorrow night. I'd say that qualifies as colder than this time last year...and we've been drier the past few months, much drier. Time will tell if the whole winter pans out thusly.

Did you actually check the persimmon seeds ozarksboy?

[ozarksboy]

Originally Posted by lifelongMOgal

Did you actually check the persimmon seeds ozarksboy?

I did. Look here.

[GraniteStater]

Somewhat cold with a touch of snow in the Ohio Valley. Hardly any snow up in New England so far where my parents are. Overall, it seems mild to me.

[SW Missouri Dave]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Somewhat cold with a touch of snow in the Ohio Valley. Hardly any snow up in New England so far where my parents are. Overall, it seems mild to me.

marmac might disagree with that.

Buried in blizzard: It fell, and fell -- and keeps falling

The biggest snowstorm to hit the Twin Cities since the Halloween storm a generation ago whited out -- and pretty much paralyzed -- the metro area and much of the rest of Minnesota Saturday.

Buried in blizzard: It fell, and fell -- and keeps falling | StarTribune.com

[SW Missouri Dave]

Kansas City Star posted this a few weeks ago

What will winter bring? Forecast depends on whom you ask
By MATT CAMPBELL
The Kansas City Star

This winter could be warmer than normal in the Kansas City area — unless it’s cold and very snowy.

The Farmers’ Almanac, which boasts that it foretold last winter’s “snowmageddon” back East, predicts the latter scenario.

But the National Weather Service, with all its records, gauges and satellites, forecasts a 35 to 40 percent chance of above-average temperatures during the winter in Kansas City.

So what should we think? It all depends. Whom do you want to ask?

For example, the critters may have some thoughts on the topic.

“The squirrels have been very busy lately,” reported a rural Missouri commenter on the Farmers’ Almanac website. “The wooly worms are dark and I have had a very large fuzzy spider and a snake in my house recently. This is something that hasn’t happened before.

“Also,” the poster continued, “the dogs are already eating more to fatten up for the winter.”

Did anybody weigh the dogs last year as Kansas City headed into what turned out to be its fourth-heaviest snow season on record, with 44.3 inches?

Being forward looking, however, we want to know what to expect this winter.

The global picture is dominated by a strong La Nina, which means cooler than normal surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. That is the opposite of El Nino.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, that should mean weather that will be colder and wetter than average for the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Plains. The agency says the Southwest should be warmer and drier than average, contributing to drought and fire woes.

The agency’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts a probability for above normal temperatures for Missouri and Kansas. It also places Kansas City right on the line of having equal chances for precipitation above or below normal.

Meanwhile, the Farmers’ Almanac predicts “cold and very snowy” conditions for northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas.

AccuWeather.com, a private forecasting service, puts Missouri and Kansas in a “wintry battle zone” between the “heaviest snow” to the north and “not much winter” to the south.

(What are folks in Texas to believe? The National Weather Service forecasts a drier and warmer winter there, while the almanac predicts “very cold and wet” for the whole South.)

The weather service does not comment on what others say.

“Anyone can put out a prediction,” said Mark O’Malley, a meteorologist with the weather service office in Pleasant Hill. “Our predictions are based on historical science and probabilities that events will happen under certain conditions.”

While the government weather agency calls itself the most advanced weather and forecast system in the world, it also cautions that its winter forecasts “are probabilistic, not deterministic outlooks” — which means don’t bet the farm on anything specific.

The almanac, on the other hand, fearlessly predicts that Jan. 4-7 in Kansas and Missouri will be a period of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

Gary Lezak, meteorologist for KSHB-TV, also is not afraid of specifics. He forecasts that Kansas City will see “four to six decent shots at winter snow and ice,” but a total of just 13 inches of snowfall all season.

That may be disappointing for another commenter on the Farmers’ Almanac website, who told the almanac that he hoped for a lot of snow and ice this winter.

And he’s not alone.

“I hope to see tons and tons and tons of snow in the Hays, Kan., area,” someone else posted. “Hopefully we will get a few snows with more than 6 inches.

“PLEASE!!!!”

** Personal Note **

And the Farmer's Almanac forecast for Missouri, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska this week.

DECEMBER 2010: temperature 33 ° (3 ° above avg.); precipitation 2.5" (1" above avg.); Dec 1-5: Sunny, then t-storms; quite mild; Dec 6-9: Rain and snow showers, seasonable; Dec 10-15: Sunny, mild; Dec 16-21: Rain to snow, then sunny, cold; Dec 22-26: Sunny, then rain, mild; Dec 27-31: Sunny, turning colder.

Today and the next four days are supposed to be sunny and mild? As Homer Simpson would say "Doh!!"

[lifelongMOgal]

Originally Posted by ozarksboy

I did. Look here.

Thanks, I recall reading that link before but didn't look to see that you had actually written the blog.