2023 Real Estate Observations (Boston, Brockton, Waltham: city hall, bankrupt, camp) - Massachusetts (MA) - Page 27 - City-Data Forum

r_p · 02-01-2023, 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by matrix5k

I thought this too in 2007-2008 but prices kept going up after that. They never plummeted in the desirable areas.

The population growth rate was 1% in 2008, 0.5% just prior to COVID and just 0.1% in 2022. Half the folks at my work-place (in late 30s and early 40s) are either single or married but without kids.

r_p · 02-01-2023, 07:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by simplexsimon

So you're selling now?

No because I have kids but for long therm investments/rentals I am not considering SFH homes.

msRB311 · 02-01-2023, 07:08 AM

I can't see myself ever wanting to move into a senior place either.

chicagoliz · 02-01-2023, 07:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikePRU

Clearly, the country's population has shifted and more people have elected to live in warmer climates and/or places with lower taxes. However, despite it's cost the Northeast continues to be a desirable place to live. I'll be curious to see what happens as employers seemingly insist more and more that employees return to the office for at least part of the week. While I think the pandemic has opened the door to a hybrid WFH arrangement for many employees I don't think most jobs will maintain their 100% WFH status that they enjoyed during the peak of COVID.

I don't know the mechanics of the Japanese real estate market but I do know Japan is a remarkably different country than the US. In size alone, the two countries are remarkably different. I'm not saying what happened in Japan couldn't happen here but it just seems like an apples-oranges comparison.

I've said this throughout covid -- people were thinking the cities would be abandoned and everyone would move the exurbs because you could get a big house and a big yard and work from home, so it didn't matter how far from the city you were. I never thought that would be a permanent mindset, even though it made sense during the height of the lockdowns. Even with more reasonable WFH arrangements, most employers are likely to require at least some time in the office. And people are still going to be linked to the cities. And they will still want them for the non-work related benefits they offer -- entertainment, meetups, sports, etc. Homes closer to the city will be more valuable than homes further away.

As far as moving to lower tax, warmer climates -- well, yeah, that is more do-able for many people. Although at least some people realize that with those lower taxes come lower services. Often the schools are awful, there are few to no services for seniors, and while a warm winter is nice, a ridiculously hot summer is not so nice. And of course there are water issues -- AZ doesn't have enough and will run out. FL has too much and a lot of it will be underwater at least part of the year. Not so good when you're looking at long term value.

And regarding Japan -- it's just a whole different ballgame. I don't think you can compare the real estate markets at all. A friend of mine has a brother who moved to Japan. He sold a tech company and has millions of dollars. His girlfriend moved with him and was able to get a job. Even though his mother is Japanese, he was not really trusted. To rent an apartment, it had to go in his girlfriend's name because she had a job. And apparently in Japan, if Landlords have a problem with a tenant, they will go to the tenant's employer to help them bring the tenant in line. Since the guy did not have an employer, the LL would not have this leverage, and therefore many would not rent to him. So it's more like an apples to elephants comparison.

simplexsimon · 02-01-2023, 07:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by r_p

No because I have kids but for long therm investments/rentals I am not considering SFH homes.

Why don't you believe a population decline will impact other real estate investments in the same way?

matrix5k · 02-01-2023, 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by r_p

The population growth rate was 1% in 2008, 0.5% just prior to COVID and just 0.1% in 2022. Half the folks at my work-place (in late 30s and early 40s) are either single or married but without kids.

Doesn't seem to be the case around Boston suburbs. They keep building huge apartment and condo complexes and they keep getting filled. Parents complain that the schools are overloaded but they keep building.

brightdoglover · 02-01-2023, 09:50 AM

When I was looking for a small house from Cambridge, I looked at suburban areas that had lakes and therefore former summer cottages and that's what I bought. Now many years later, all of them are either torn down or beautifully rehabbed. I'd still buy one of the rehabs if I was interested in the area.