2021 Real Estate Observations (coupons, tax, wealthy)

[masssachoicetts]

Inventory seems to be creeping up.

[msRB311]

where?

[timberline742]

Originally Posted by mdovell

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/mill...c-survey-.html

I have a bad feeling about this.

"Nearly half of millennial millionaires have at least 25% of their wealth in cryptocurrencies, as the crypto boom continues to create wealth for young, early adopters, according to the CNBC Millionaire Survey.

Fully 47% of millennial millionaires surveyed have more than 25% of their wealth in cryptocurrencies, according to the survey of 750 investors with at least $1 million in investible assets. More than a third of millennial millionaires have at least half their wealth in crypto."

Bitcoin is BS. You can't really pay for anything with it, it isn't legal tender, you cannot put it in a bank and insure it. It makes it next to impossible to contract with any company. It recently dropped by about a third.

Let's do a tad of math on this. If this starts at 1 million and it's at least 25% that means 250K is on the line easily. If all it takes is one bad tweet to send it down from elon musk by 10% that's a 25K loss...in one day.

If this was gold or silver any portfolio manager that is a fiduciary would have their head spinning.

Bitcoin isn't the only crypto, its one of many, and I have two friends that recently purchased homes from profits they've made in the last year in crypto.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by id77

It is a problem, but it's not one that can be reasoned with. A lot of people deep in crypto also harbor a deep resentment/hatred/distrust of the corporate system and/or government-backed assets much the same way gold and silver hoarders do. The more they hear that crypto isn't a real currency, the more they dig in deeper. The more they hear that they should own traditional stocks, the more they dig in to crypto. There's some smart ones to be sure who will jump ship before it's too late, but many will wipe out.

Best thing to do is just let the system do its thing and watch the chips fall as they will.

Anecdotally the bulk, at least in my sphere, seem to be rather unsophisticated investors. They seem deluded in believing it's something other than a speculative bubble, which is why I was rather unsurprised when they bought the top of the GME squeeze.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by timberline742

Bitcoin isn't the only crypto, its one of many, and I have two friends that recently purchased homes from profits they've made in the last year in crypto.

Yes, and these comments are what fuel future 'bag holders'.

I have friends who have $3-15 bitcoin averages and, since they're educated ethical actors, they don't suggest their financial success can be easily repeated with with valuations bouncing in the $30-50k range. One can, but it takes a healthy dose of luck and capital. They sure as hell don't post about their cryptos landing them blue-chip RE in the public sphere. It's financially dangerous.

[timberline742]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Yes, and these comments are what fuel future 'bag holders'.

I have friends who have $3-15 bitcoin averages and, since they're educated ethical actors, they don't suggest their financial success can be easily repeated with with valuations bouncing in the $30-50k range. One can, but it takes a healthy dose of luck and capital. They sure as hell don't post about their cryptos landing them blue-chip RE in the public sphere. It's financially dangerous.

Perhaps. But I don't know anyone that does it with anything but what is, effectively, play money. It's not in lieu of traditional retirement investments and never seen anyone I trust to advocate for it being for anything but play money. Its a side game.



It's really just a hobby for some. I don't know how they keep up. Make $3k on Oasis, drop it in Safehaven, pull out, spread it on Bonfire, and half a dozen others.... its like a fun little game. Just like playing with those tokens. It's not for me, but each to their own.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by timberline742

Perhaps. But I don't know anyone that does it with anything but what is, effectively, play money. It's not in lieu of traditional retirement investments and never seen anyone I trust to advocate for it being for anything but play money. Its a side game. It's not for me, but each to their own.

Qualified, yes, it's fine.

But you original statement is what causes low intelligence 'investors' to throw capital at what appears to be nothing more than a speculative pump and dump scheme.

I know ... I sound like Peter Schiff, but you have to be deluded to think that small individual investors are the ones moving Bitcoin, just as WSB were not the ones moving the GME squeeze. The 'whales' do, however, love themselves some willing bag holders so they have a clean exit.

[timberline742]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Qualified, yes, it's fine.

But you original statement is what causes low intelligence 'investors' to throw capital at what appears to be nothing more than a speculative pump and dump scheme.

I know ... I sound like Peter Schiff, but you have to be deluded to think that small individual investors are the ones moving Bitcoin, just as WSB were not the ones moving the GME squeeze. The 'whales' do, however, love themselves some willing bag holders so they have a clean exit.

No, but bitcoin is really really old news. I don't know anyone that touches that.



I'm not really worried about low intelligence investors chasing get rich quick schemes with money they can't afford to lose. Those people will always exist.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

Could be the eviction ban. Can't sell if you have a tenant who isn't paying and can't be evicted.

My census tract is pretty much 100% owner-occupied single family homes and it’s more than 50% owned by Boomers. The houses I can think of that have been sold in the last year were mostly estate sales. I haven’t seen the usual sales of Boomers who snowbird selling and moving to their winter home. I suspect the politicized handling of COVID-19 in the south made people hit the pause button. When nobody is trading up and the Boomers aren’t leaving, there isn’t much inventory.

[GeePee]

There was one house on my block that sold for an astronomical price in Jan. Soon after I saw more than a few homes being renovated and a few up for sale. I think some people are cashing out before rates climb.