2021 Real Estate Observations (dangerous, moving to, rich)

[Beachcomber4]

Originally Posted by mdovell

https://www.patriotledger.com/story/...ld/7509030002/

Projects being either delayed or cut back. When you have people under a contract and prices go up sometimes contractors have to eat the costs. The other issue is when something gets substituted. So people switched from pvc to steel pipes? Hmm. I can wait for some work to get done. I'm glad I have wood taken care of for the most part. Can't see landscaping really going up in price.

Have you tried to hire a landscaper or priced out a project of late?

Let's see there is a supply/demand issue for product. People are putting time and money into their outdoor living space.

Workforce shortage forcing higher wages. Gas prices are substaintially higher....

Crushed shells for walks and driveways are a coveted item down here on the Cape. People paying top dollar all around.

[msRB311]

Real estate is out of control all over the country, not just in Boston.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by chicagoliz

Is that really a compelling argument? You could do that in Florida, too. Heck, you can also do it in Michigan (they are still Eastern time.)

I see a house for sale at the South End of New Bedford one house from East Rodney French Boulevard that has an ocean sunset for $299K. That part of the South End near the tip is middle class single family homes. When the real estate market corrects as interest rates go up, there will be $250k houses in that part of New Bedford again.

It’s Zillow so it’s not real but they’ve been showing a consistent 3% month over month increase for my house for the last year+. There’s no inventory and the only things for sale in my census tract are $1 million+. No smaller houses have been on the market at all. I’d guess nobody is selling because they don’t know if they will be able to buy. There’s inventory in the more working class part of town at the New Bedford line but even that is selling at record levels.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by Beachcomber4

Crushed shells for walks and driveways are a coveted item down here on the Cape. People paying top dollar all around.

I want to re-grade my driveway and put down crushed shell with some cobblestone at the boundaries. This year, that would be a DIY project. No way I could get my excavator who did my French drain and grading work this year.

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by Beachcomber4

Have you tried to hire a landscaper or priced out a project of late?

Let's see there is a supply/demand issue for product. People are putting time and money into their outdoor living space.

Workforce shortage forcing higher wages. Gas prices are substaintially higher....

Crushed shells for walks and driveways are a coveted item down here on the Cape. People paying top dollar all around.

I had some quotes for beams. Second one was much better but that was earlier in the year. Eventually I'll replace some others but it can wait. I've had gutters put on, beams, some pest control, bought a high end dehumdifier (contractor said it would take three weeks?? I got it direct in two days).

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

It’s Zillow so it’s not real but they’ve been showing a consistent 3% month over month increase for my house for the last year+. There’s no inventory and the only things for sale in my census tract are $1 million+. No smaller houses have been on the market at all. I’d guess nobody is selling because they don’t know if they will be able to buy. There’s inventory in the more working class part of town at the New Bedford line but even that is selling at record levels.

Could be the eviction ban. Can't sell if you have a tenant who isn't paying and can't be evicted.

[mdovell]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/mill...c-survey-.html

I have a bad feeling about this.

"Nearly half of millennial millionaires have at least 25% of their wealth in cryptocurrencies, as the crypto boom continues to create wealth for young, early adopters, according to the CNBC Millionaire Survey.

Fully 47% of millennial millionaires surveyed have more than 25% of their wealth in cryptocurrencies, according to the survey of 750 investors with at least $1 million in investible assets. More than a third of millennial millionaires have at least half their wealth in crypto."

Bitcoin is BS. You can't really pay for anything with it, it isn't legal tender, you cannot put it in a bank and insure it. It makes it next to impossible to contract with any company. It recently dropped by about a third.

Let's do a tad of math on this. If this starts at 1 million and it's at least 25% that means 250K is on the line easily. If all it takes is one bad tweet to send it down from elon musk by 10% that's a 25K loss...in one day.

If this was gold or silver any portfolio manager that is a fiduciary would have their head spinning.

[BostonMike7]

I bailed out of crypto a few months back before the downward trend for more traditional investments. A lot of my millennial peers did the same thing. Took the money and ran. Some of us were in Doge at 0.003 cents, so the initial risk really wasn't all that high. It was play money that got real.

The fact that it rises and falls on Elon's tweets made me lose my taste for all crypto. That's not an trustworthy investment.

[mdovell]

Eventually we're going to see projects bump up against other projects.

https://www.masslive.com/news/2021/0...s-forward.html

Who can blame them? What's more important 30 jobs at a junkyard or having apartment projects cancelled? Who wants to pay decent money to have a view of a junkyard?

[id77]

Originally Posted by mdovell

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/mill...c-survey-.html

I have a bad feeling about this.

"Nearly half of millennial millionaires have at least 25% of their wealth in cryptocurrencies, as the crypto boom continues to create wealth for young, early adopters, according to the CNBC Millionaire Survey.

Fully 47% of millennial millionaires surveyed have more than 25% of their wealth in cryptocurrencies, according to the survey of 750 investors with at least $1 million in investible assets. More than a third of millennial millionaires have at least half their wealth in crypto."

Bitcoin is BS. You can't really pay for anything with it, it isn't legal tender, you cannot put it in a bank and insure it. It makes it next to impossible to contract with any company. It recently dropped by about a third.

Let's do a tad of math on this. If this starts at 1 million and it's at least 25% that means 250K is on the line easily. If all it takes is one bad tweet to send it down from elon musk by 10% that's a 25K loss...in one day.

If this was gold or silver any portfolio manager that is a fiduciary would have their head spinning.

It is a problem, but it's not one that can be reasoned with. A lot of people deep in crypto also harbor a deep resentment/hatred/distrust of the corporate system and/or government-backed assets much the same way gold and silver hoarders do. The more they hear that crypto isn't a real currency, the more they dig in deeper. The more they hear that they should own traditional stocks, the more they dig in to crypto. There's some smart ones to be sure who will jump ship before it's too late, but many will wipe out.

Best thing to do is just let the system do its thing and watch the chips fall as they will.