2021 Real Estate Observations (Boston: obgyn, credit score, loans)

[Lampert]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

Inflation-adjusted, I had pretty big student loan debt when I graduated. I took a really hard major and studied hard. I got a good job and paid the loan back.

Inflation doesn't explain everything. A lot of huge costs for the average American today is not calculated into the inflation rate.

Matter of fact things have been progressively getting worse for the last 80 years in term of household economy of the middle class.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by massnative71

Sorry to go further OT, but from this point on stimulus money should go exclusively to businesses and persons affected by the pandemic. Giving it to those like myself who have seen zero disruption in income (be it direct payments or student loan forgiveness), is not only useless for the economy but also reckless and irresponsible.

Maybe this is ignorant but....

What's the worse that could happen inflation? stagflation? That money is going to go directly back into the economy if you don't need it- a restaurant you eat it will get it. Charities might even get it. Business owners are getting crushed and this is a way of keeping their businesses flush.

I honestly think the money is used to "stimulate" the economy and get people 'doing things', not necessarily a bailout rescue aid package like you're describing. Also, its the only way to keep people sane and your favorability level up. Joe Biden made a promise so he's gotta follow through-said so man times himself he won't break his promise.

Joe is going to listen to Republicans but trust and believe he is driven by and under much more pressure from Progressives. High chance this isnt even the last stimulus.

[Lampert]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

Mitt wants to encourage white middle class people to reproduce. The birthrate today is well below replacement rate. Poor people already don't pay any taxes.

Not just white middle class. S of 2018 none of the ethnic groups is hitting the replacement rates (2.1) except for pacific islanders (a very minor group in term of numbers)..barely
Hispanic 1.96, Black 1.79, White 1.64, Asian 1.53.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

Way off topic for this thread but I think it would be grossly unfair. Inflation-adjusted, I had pretty big student loan debt when I graduated. I took a really hard major and studied hard. I got a good job and paid the loan back. Why should my tax money prop up someone who didn't make those life choices? You know the rules of the game before you take out the first loan. Bankruptcy doesn't forgive the loan. It's yours for life. College had better be a good investment or you're going to be saddled with that debt forever.

Yea, well, that's great for you but you know you're in a small minority of people.

I took out loans I had no idea what the rules were I was just pushed into college its sort of worked out but Boy do I wish I knew more about life before I took out 37k in loans. No one at 17/18 really knows the rules most of us don't even have a credit card or credit period. Probably nearly a half don't even have any accounts or have never had a job. Downright irresponsible and predatory that we allow these huge loans to be taken out by folks who can't even get a drink at a bar...

No joke at my college they had us all chant "I will not default on my student loans" x5. I still don't even know what it means to "default" on loans other than you give up it hurts your credit score and I guess you restructure...they never told us what it means to default, legally or practically. IN high school they just told me you'll "get financial aid"

People who went to college and for whatever reasons don't graduate are sddled with 5k of bad choices from age 17 and a half? Doesn't seem reasonable. Certainly cant be helping anyone or anything or the economy.

I saw someone say "if Fire Departments didn't already exist people would be complaining that they have to spend THEIR TAX DOLLARS because some idiot burnt down his own house" I think the same could be said about a lot of scenarios when people want to inflict punishment and consequence on people who simply make earnest mistakes... Threat of those consequences discourage otherwise capable people from even trying.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by Lampert

Not just white middle class. S of 2018 none of the ethnic groups is hitting the replacement rates (2.1) except for pacific islanders (a very minor group in term of numbers)..barely
Hispanic 1.96, Black 1.79, White 1.64, Asian 1.53.

I didn't know Hispanic dropped below replacement, I knew black did. but yea...

Its simply too expensive for most people to have kids-raising a family isn't feasible for many if not most right now. I certainly don't anticipate that changing-ever.

So it's either more immigrants or free money, or -more likely it's going to be both under Biden. Lest we end up like Italy or Japan...

It's not gonna make people on the right happy but if we fall into the folly of preserving "American ideals" or pure meritocracy and as some backward form of nationalism I don't see how we remain relevant and powerful as a nation. What works in one century (for a few groups) doesn't necessarily work in the next century.

Needless to say, people will fight this tooth and nail as long as they possibly can. I don't know if it will change the endgame though, I'm doubtful it will.

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade

What's the worse that could happen inflation?

See what happened to Zimbabwe. That's the worst case scenario. Dollar becomes worthless, that sort of thing. Be tough to run a deficit with a worthless currency.

[Lampert]

Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade

I didn't know Hispanic dropped below replacement, I knew black did. but yea...

In just 10 years birthrate of Hispanic women dropped 30%. Massive.

Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade

Its simply too expensive for most people to have kids-raising a family isn't feasible for many if not most right now. I certainly don't anticipate that changing-ever.

That's by far the main driving force. But also women nowadays don't want to be baby-making-machines. They work, have their hobbies and so on. We aren't going back to big families regardless of money. What money is really going to affect is how fast we are going to drop (excluding immigration).
In Italy and Japan a baby costs a lot less than in the US, France has a huge program of incentives for families (like we are probably never going to have). They are also not hitting replacement, but doing better than Italy or Japan.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

See what happened to Zimbabwe. That's the worst case scenario. Dollar becomes worthless, that sort of thing. Be tough to run a deficit with a worthless currency.

See i said "inflation" and you went Zimbabwe, rein it into something more realistic ( 1970s stagflation?), Thats not a realistic scenario for the financial capital of the world.

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade

Thats not a realistic scenario for the financial capital of the world.

In that WCS the US wouldn't be. Losing the reserve currency status would be a big deal.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by Lampert

In just 10 years birthrate of Hispanic women dropped 30%. Massive.



That's by far the main driving force. But also women nowadays don't want to be baby-making-machines. They work, have their hobbies and so on. We aren't going back to big families regardless of money. What money is really going to affect is how fast we are going to drop (excluding immigration).
In Italy and Japan a baby costs a lot less than in the US, France has a huge program of incentives for families (like we are probably never going to have). They are also not hitting replacement, but doing better than Italy or Japan.

Women definitely don't want to be baby-making machines. But they're not hitting 2 kids per lifetime. not exactly machine status. Overwhelmingly I think it's the expense. Homes and education/childcare isn't even realistic for most new mothers without the various type of government support whether hidden or upfront, and that burden becomes higher every year.

Anecdotally I know more many black people in my age range (25-30) would want to have more children if it were a financial reality. most are just trying to "get theirs" and achieve autonomy as much as possible because we don't know what the future holds. I suspect that sentiment exists amongst various ethnicities to varying levels. Easier to have a hobby when you don't have to work overtime shifts, or you pay half as much out of your pocket for child care, and your child can actually go to childcare.