2021 Real Estate Observations (Boston, Brookline, Norton: tenants, landlords, universities)

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by mdovell

OK what about all the others I mentioned. So you pick one out of five.moreover wealth is made by investments not education. While you do earn more threw a higher paying job with higher education you still are paying income taxes that max at 31% vs capital gains at 15%. Lookup Ronald Read and get back to us

None of the towns between the Massachusetts line and downtown Hartford with train stations or projected train stations are remotely in the “gold plated suburb” category. Those start with 60% college educated adults. West Hartford is 64.7%. Glastonbury is 63%. Avon is 66.2%. Farmington is 60%. Simsbury is 65.3%.

Longmeadow Ma is 65.1%. No way they would allow high density housing at a train station. Enfield CT is 27%. All those Connecticut towns on the river between Springfield and Hartford are like that. South Windsor is as good as it gets at 49.4% and that’s on the wrong side of the river from the train tracks. Windsor is 41%.

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

None of the towns between the Massachusetts line and downtown Hartford with train stations or projected train stations are remotely in the “gold plated suburb” category. Those start with 60% college educated adults. West Hartford is 64.7%. Glastonbury is 63%. Avon is 66.2%. Farmington is 60%. Simsbury is 65.3%.

Longmeadow Ma is 65.1%. No way they would allow high density housing at a train station. Enfield CT is 27%. All those Connecticut towns on the river between Springfield and Hartford are like that. South Windsor is as good as it gets at 49.4% and that’s on the wrong side of the river from the train tracks. Windsor is 41%.

Hello did you read the articles or not? There's a west hartford station planned. I didn't say longmeadow could because that would cause the track to zig zag and be physically impossible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flatbu...n_(Connecticut)

Look at the interactive map
https://nhhsrail.com/info_center/improvements_map.aspx

it's on a map, it's funded the busway is right there next to the track. now this wasn't there 10 years ago but gradually it was put in. There's parking and it physically exists. So yes there is a rail station planned in west hartford and has for some time.

Glastonbury, Avon, Farmington and simsbury are not on the line. West Hartford clearly is.

When you refer to high density housing do you mean simply the number of people there or something of a low to moderate income? Obviously from the reports they don't mind market rate.

simsbury currently has 240 apartments on the market
https://www.apartments.com/simsbury-ct/

Farmington 199
https://www.apartments.com/farmington-ct/

Avon 71
https://www.apartments.com/avon-ct/

Glastonbury 89
https://www.apartments.com/apartments/glastonbury-ct/

So if you make a claim that high density is bad man I have to tell you that you are easily losing this argument. I show evidence that the west hartford station is real and evidence there's an active and growing rental market in CT. Are these low income? No not at all. Many of these are very nice lookin areas that vary from $1200-2000 a month. they look great to me.

Transit generally improves property values. I've seen it in Mass in the late 90's and everything along the commuter rail went up significantly. Post covid if you want people to go back to the office and everyone drives the traffic will grind to a halt. Not everyone can afford another car. Transit authorities are starting to authorize free passes for not weeks but months. I've heard this coming down from the PVTA. Will it work? I don't know but we can't exactly expect people to go back to work from telecommutting to 60 minute commutes each way. Of course this has a huge impact on the housing market as well. Imagine you bought a house in braintree and things are quiet. Then the call to come back creates a backup and brings air pollution with it. A quiet place for kids suddenly isn't. School districts might see a back and forth in enrollment which really messes with kids. I grew up by a military base and you'd see students a few year and then gone and then back again.

Housing is a need and by default developers can and often do redevelop properties to fulfill that demand. Recently I read that two strip clubs are going to be demoed for housing and a supermarket. https://www.masslive.com/news/2021/0...-purchase.html
How many other defunct businesses are just sitting there waiting to be redeveloped?

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by mdovell

There's a west hartford station planned. I didn't say longmeadow could because that would cause the track to zig zag and be physically impossible.

West Hartford is the poster child for avoiding high density housing at all costs through snob zoning. The mill rate is an astounding $41.80 per thousand valuation. West Hartford can't even afford to spend the state average in per-pupil school budget since the tax base includes all that lower income housing at the Hartford line south of Farmington Ave. It doesn't take much of a house in the good half of town to have a $20,000 property tax bill.

[sawyer2]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

The mill rate is an astounding $41.80 per thousand valuation.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by sawyer2

And here I was thinking Brookline/Hollis were nose bleed inducing. At least there’s no income tax in NH.

[id77]

Originally Posted by msRB311

Right, I'm all about having my own yard and space and privacy but I can at least understand that people have different wants and needs and perhaps want city living. id77 seems to think EVERYONE and their mother wants to live in Back Bay and South end and anyone who doesn't just can't afford it. Some people would prefer to live on a farm in VT over back bay. And yes some would simply prefer to live in Charlestown. I personally don't get the draw to back bay other than it's walkable? Otherwise just seems like you're inhaling a lot of car fumes and have to see a boatload of people everytime you leave your living space.

And neither I nor anyone else is faulting you for this, so I'm not sure why you're feeling aggrieved here.

So, let's recap. The question was asked what the appeal of Charlestown was, and as someone who was a potential Charlestown buyer in 2020, I offered a perspective. I then got told I was ignorant and wrong for having done so, by people who weren't potential Charlestown buyers and/or weren't recently. By pointing that out, I'm now apparently crapping on you and suburban living? How did we even get here?

I'm not sure what response you would expect from me when you also expect everyone and their mother to agree that Boston is dying and everyone should be fleeing to the leafy suburbs. All I'm pointing out is that, contrary to that belief, no, many of us living in Boston aren't all kicking and screaming to flee out the leafy suburbs.

[msRB311]

I never said Boston was dying out. I just said not everyone wants to live in Back Bay. I do think there's been exodus from Greater Boston this past year. Doesn't mean more people aren't moving in.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

And here I was thinking Brookline/Hollis were nose bleed inducing. At least there’s no income tax in NH.

There’s a bit of hyperbole with that mil rate. Connecticut taxes at 70% of appraised value. The effective rate is $29.26. They don’t have prop 2 1/2 so their auto excise tax is based on book value with average miles. That luxury crossover everyone in West Hartford drives has some big yearly property taxes that don’t decline quickly like in Massachusetts.

West Hartford does spend below the state average per pupil. It’s not lower Fairfield County housing costs but it’s pretty high cost of living there. Simsbury, Avon, and Farmington west of West Hartford use it as an object lesson for keeping snob zoning. The bottom 30% in the town eats up the majority of the budget.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

There’s a bit of hyperbole with that mil rate. Connecticut taxes at 70% of appraised value. The effective rate is $29.26. They don’t have prop 2 1/2 so their auto excise tax is based on book value with average miles. That luxury crossover everyone in West Hartford drives has some big yearly property taxes that don’t decline quickly like in Massachusetts.

West Hartford does spend below the state average per pupil. It’s not lower Fairfield County housing costs but it’s pretty high cost of living there. Simsbury, Avon, and Farmington west of West Hartford use it as an object lesson for keeping snob zoning. The bottom 30% in the town eats up the majority of the budget.

That’s still very high given CT’s additional income tax, which is also higher than MA’s. Brookline/Hollis is a top 5 NH district in a no income tax state ... 29/23 per thou.

Now I know why CT has a flight issue.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

That’s still very high given CT’s additional income tax, which is also higher than MA’s. Brookline/Hollis is a top 5 NH district in a no income tax state ... 29/23 per thou.

Now I know why CT has a flight issue.

Yep. It’s a graduated tax. On a joint return, the 5.5% bracket starts at $100k and the 6% bracket starts at $200k. If you’re low income, it’s lower than Massachusetts. Sales tax is also a bit higher at 6.35% and they tax clothing. The gasoline tax is very high.

By NYC tri-state standards, it’s lower tax. A lower Fairfield County town like Westport with snob zoning and low birth rates has a $11.70 effective property tax rate. Greenwich is below $10.

Connecticut didn’t have Prop 2 1/2 so there were no constraints on the local public sector unions for the last 40 years. You can imagine the rampant unfunded pension liability problem. Massachusetts isn’t pretty but Connecticut is going to have painful issues.

Going back on-topic, in my corner of the economic third world, the towns all use the Bristol County retirement system which is on year 6 of a 20 year plan to get to 100% funding. It makes some market return assumptions that might not happen but it’s not awful. New Bedford and Fall River do their own and are a ticking time bomb.