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You guys are mocking mdovell but he is onto a not so insignificant point. Massachusetts is very dependent on international immigration and international students. With several other nations expected to go into negative population growth as early as the 2030s, the competition for immigration is going to tighten and that could impact the ability of Massachusetts to sustain its economic growth. We will have to see what the next few decades bring for actual results.
You have this wrong. Massachusetts is very dependent on top-1% talent from around the world moving there for the career opportunities. It has never grown that talent organically. No different than the Bay Area though 10% the scale. Personally, I see that inward migration trend increasing as the talent continues to concentrate. There is a fixed supply of blue chip housing in Boston and restrictive zoning law means it won’t be increasing. There will always be huge competition for a Lexington.
The premise that declining population will hurt elite universities is also flawed. It will hurt unselective schools. People will always queue up to get into the top universities because it’s such a career boost. The demand is global for the top Boston schools.
You have this wrong. Massachusetts is very dependent on top-1% talent from around the world moving there for the career opportunities. It has never grown that talent organically. No different than the Bay Area though 10% the scale. Personally, I see that inward migration trend increasing as the talent continues to concentrate. There is a fixed supply of blue chip housing in Boston and restrictive zoning law means it won’t be increasing. There will always be huge competition for a Lexington.
The premise that declining population will hurt elite universities is also flawed. It will hurt unselective schools. People will always queue up to get into the top universities because it’s such a career boost. The demand is global for the top Boston schools.
This analysis is spot on. If you look at the Boston area's strengths: Higher education, bio-pharma, and tech, I don't see things changing on that front. In addition, it's part of the Bos-Wash corridor with links to Canada/parts of Europe. Blue-chip communities like Lexington are going to continue to remain desirable.
This analysis is spot on. If you look at the Boston area's strengths: Higher education, bio-pharma, and tech, I don't see things changing on that front. In addition, it's part of the Bos-Wash corridor with links to Canada/parts of Europe. Blue-chip communities like Lexington are going to continue to remain desirable.
One main strength is that the state doesn't seem to be running into the toilet like California (rampant homeless, escalating violence in cities, taxing like crazy)
boring? Eh. Lexington does look nice, I've worked there. But the RT 2 traffic ruins that downtown. You try to have a nice cup of coffee. Then again some of it has gone downhill. I see a high end athletic shoe store then becoming a independent clothing boutique and is now a nail salon, a jewelry shop that became a bead shop and is now a verizon store, a kids store turning into a general gift shop (since closed), oriental rug shop because a massage chair store ?!? Naturally it isn't good when businesses close but some might have moved to bigger locations and anything is better than empty storefronts. Having said that though it clearly shows a downward spiral. Nail salons, hair salons, barber shops and dollar stores are more of poorer areas.
Route 2 doesn’t go anywhere near Lexington Center. I assume you mean Massachusetts Ave. Small retail stores have been going extinct for a while now thanks to the internet. That’s happening in every town except towns with a lot of tourists who can sustain it.
Route 2 doesn’t go anywhere near Lexington Center. I assume you mean Massachusetts Ave. Small retail stores have been going extinct for a while now thanks to the internet. That’s happening in every town except towns with a lot of tourists who can sustain it.
Small businesses churn. It's like that everywhere. It's not like Lexington has boarded up storefronts. When a mom & pop business shuts the doors, the next one moves in. In my coastal village, I can point at pretty much any storefront and name 3 or 4 businesses that used to be there. Only one family business survived and that morphed from a gas station/auto repair with a small fuel dock to a marina and boat yard with a large off-site boat storage business.
2.1 is breaking even, and few prosperous nations are even at that number.
The shrinkage (which is a good thing, by the way) is happening everywhere that's wealthy, so it's not like these colleges and businesses can flock somewhere else that's has a similar wealth draw and high rate of replacement.
Think of it not as we're falling behind (we're not) because we don't reproduce, and instead think of it as nearly all nations that elevate their quality of life and GDP output naturally reproduce less.
This. As wealth increases, reproduction decreases. China just raised the "child limit" to 3 per couple as their birth rate dropped 18% from 2019 to 2020. Only 12 million children were born in China in 2020 resulting in a fertility rate of 1.3 which is below the 2.1 replacement rate. Keeping at the current trajectory, China will be below 1 billion in population by 2130. China will need immigrants to keep it's economy growing.
This analysis is spot on. If you look at the Boston area's strengths: Higher education, bio-pharma, and tech, I don't see things changing on that front. In addition, it's part of the Bos-Wash corridor with links to Canada/parts of Europe. Blue-chip communities like Lexington are going to continue to remain desirable.
Additionally, if one reviews the polling data on why individuals are leaving the northeast it's largely due to better opportunities (if in rural areas like VT/NY/W. MA) and lower COL (if in higher COL areas like NYC, Boston, southern CT).
It's entirely plausible that if the Boston market were to soften, young professionals would happily backfill as opposed to fleeing to TX, MN, NH, etc. This might hurt marginal RE markets like 495 belt, but I'd assume relative stability as retention might improve among the existing educated working class.
It's not like institutions or demand crumble overnight, unless you're a city like Detroit heavily reliant on a single commercial industry and a thriving working class reliant on said industry.
If any area relies on one industry as their base and that industry declines or changes that community has to change with it, period. We haven't had a BRAC hearing since 1995 and frankly I think we might be due one in the next few years. I grew up in a military community and the impact of that is obvious. When a base closes redevelopment can take quite a long time to say the least. If you don't have plans for what to do DoD can place anything and I mean anything there.
With the private sector access to lines (water, sewer, telecommunication, electrical) is vital along with road access. It's much easier to redevelop vs develop new. So yes a shop can close and a new one can open and no one wants boarded up buildings. Having said that the types of stores can vary dramatically.
Take a look at the corner stores. You had a bike shop (chalkboard signs too!), an independent donut shop, a music store that caters to kids, and a jewelry shop (M&F) a pretty good combination all things being said.
Now it's a gas station with convivence store. That's not really a sign of economic development. Sure there's still business there but when you have unique things in place that are replaced by some of the most common (gas stations, hair salons, nail salons, dollar stores, check cashing, barber shops etc). I can be OK with a bit of it but I've seen some places with eight places to get your hair done in one mile (Middleboro).
With Lexington it was the traffic of Mass ave coming off of 2A, it is pretty significant at times and I could taste the air.
Look at public school enrollments and how students are treated like commodities. Competition with public, private, vocational, online and religious is pretty high. General populations are getting to be the same way. It's one thing to have a flat population but it's another if it's going down. Much of what we have is based on population growths and counts and it has significant ramifications.
In western Mass the congressional district might getting larger. The Berkshires has been shrinking for decades and Franklin county has been flat for awhile. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Much of western Mass is consolidating to Hamden and Hampshire county, most the springfield area. Because congressional districts have to repersent the same number of people the district has to absorb additional communities to keep it at that same level. There are those say in North Adams and Pittsfield that think that Springfield is going to get more attention. Just like in New York about half the population lives in NYC. If you win NYC and one mainland county you probably just became governor. Curtis Silva just won the republican primary with just 25,000 votes. The fact that that is all it took to get on the ballot for mayor of one of the largest cities on the planet is astounding.
Anyways government spending is dependent on population (hence the importance of the census). Chapter 70 is educational aid and dependent on school enrollment. More students means more money and more programs. Chapter 90 is road reimbursement for state roads but it's funded based on employers based in the area and population. COA foundation grant is based on the number of seniors that live in town etc. Income isn't the issue here, population is.
Business plans generally work under a profit margin and volume. A lower volume can be justified by higher margins (selling jewelry, real estate, financial services etc.) higher volume can be justified by lower margins (barber shops, gas stations, furniture stores) . Some products are more regressive. For example with food certainly we can trade up for food but it's not like six figures or more means you eat 1500 more calories a day. If you make more you are more apt to go to higher ed, work out, buy a larger house, get a better car etc.
I see higher ed changing simply because of the following
1) Dependence on international students
2) Higher adaptation of online education especially in higher degrees and post covid
3) Employers more likely to train directly in lieu of higher ed (sometimes certifications)
There *were* links to Canada but the border is closed and likely will be for months. Africa and Latin America are going to take awhile before things are really open as well. As for housing once cars can drive themselves en masse we're going to see garages become bedrooms and that would put a huge dent in rentals for sure. We have space to create more housing but we might not have the zoning so it changes. Empty nesters might want to run a airbnb or an in law suite on the side for extra money so it's going to be hard to prevent this from happening.
Diversity is also a huge factor here. I know many people of color and frankly I've heard from some that they don't want to be the only one at an employer or at school. This is why when I say communities cannot appear to be racist, sexist, homophobic, transphobic etc they *really* can't be. This is well beyond social and ethical, it's now economic.
Just because someone likes some small town with a quant downtown doesn't mean others will. Everything and everyone gets older and if there is no baton being passed the towns age out. If you are a business that sells things to teenagers and there's no teenagers what do you? Find another base of customers or change the product. That's easier said than done. I inherited furniture from my grandparents over the past 12 years. Sure it looks great but it's big, bulky and heavy. Lasts forever but that's because they didn't move like we do today. The utility of it is less. I literally had to beg relatives to take them.
Even a 2-3% decrease annually in anything will compound. Predictions for post 2026 is down 10% but those predictions were precovid. Mt Holyoke released their enrollment numbers the other day. They aren't some small community colleges they are one of the seven sisters of the northeast. Fall 2020 was down 12.5%( vs 2019 and that's with online classes (international students down 9.3%) That's a decline of 1 of 8. They didn't come back in the fall and they didn't come back in he spring. That's not even looking on living on vs off campus either. https://www.mtholyoke.edu/iresearch/enrollment
On a national level the average is 3.5% drop. It's higher in other parts of the country and in community colleges. None the less 12.5% is pretty high of a drop. https://www.universityworldnews.com/...10611133456678
In a business a "comp" is doing more than your current year. Some businesses just want any growth. So to see a decline in double digits is serious. Is this a one and done? I don't know and we aren't going to know for months. If businesses can move but people can't then who has the advantage? Well now we see remote work on even a global scale is possible. If the economy heats up more and employers simply say they'll train people than what's the point exactly of higher ed? Yes enlightenment I get that but when we are talking five to six figures and the costs of that over decades it adds up. How many students would still go to higher ed if they could get the job without it? I love learning. I have three degrees, two significant certifications, a few teacher license, ESL cert, and dozens of post graduate online certificates. Having said this there's financial limits no matter how pretty or nice a place is. Networking has changed as well.
Of course institutions don't crumble overnight but M&A activity has been crazy the past 25 years. I know of a company that's probably planning thousands of layoffs in 18 months, the WARN notice will be drafted in 12 months. CEO comments heavily implied the downsizing years ago but few read it. Jobs most certainly can move an accommodations can be made. We just saw it with the Paw Sox and Worcester. If someone says something will never happen how much money are they willing to bet if any?
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