Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
MikeyKid, to me, your chart is meaningless unless you can show the same chart with information from say five, ten or even twenty years ago.
I may be wrong, but as a long time Long Island resident, I would venture to say, Long Island's affordability standing hasn't changed much, if at all.
Any chance you can get those (official) comparative charts? I'm always willing to learn!
...As for LI being overpriced. Thats easy, it is. Median income vs. home costs is way over the normal ratio for the rest of the country...
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyKid
...The Index uses what most people agree is the key factor in affordability - income to home values. So when only 54.5% of home sales are "affordable" to the median income of the area (somewhere in the 2.5 to 3x range), you either need a big raise or find a cheaper house when your median income is 100k to the median home sale of 375k. With those numbers you can keep your 1%, property taxes more then eat through that.
Thank you, good points. Tried to rep you guys.
I was beginning to think no one remembered these two things. I think the 2.5 to 3x range is key to the affordability discussion because it correlates to the 28% to 36 % debt-to-income ratio lenders have gone back to using to calculating how much they’ll lend to an individual. Which bring us around to Median income vs. home costs – (from the LI Index 2011 - Long Island Index: Housing Affordability )
“The burden of high housing costs - More than a third of all Long Islanders are burdened with high housing costs – that is, they spend more than 35% of their income on their housing. One in five residents, in fact, spends more than half of their income on housing.”
As seen in other housing down turns, the NY metro area is usually late to the party. With the pressure from lenders on the amounts they will lend, the shadow inventory that will one day drip or flood into the market, baby boomers starting to retire and sell, changing demographics of what younger generations want, I’d say there are obstacles of LI home prices in the next few years. I would expect to see prices remain flat at best, but I wouldn’t be surprised by a drop of 15%.
It's funny that now the mantra is "the greatest and most expensive city in the world" and the 50miles rule or whatever - meanwhile LI was very affordable in the late 90s ranking solidly in the top half of the 222 regions tracked. 1998 would have been a banner year to buy a house when LI ranked well above 50.
What's really scary about this index is that from the best I can find researching it, they don't take into consideration property taxes! Imagine if they actually factored that in?
Gotta love the crickets from those looking for "data". lol
Affordability? - just take a look at the unemployment report today, or doesn't that count anymore?
What will happen to unemployment over a 30 year span of a mortgage?
Nobody really knows, right? Well, if you look at unemployment numbers since the great depression you can get a feel for what kind of numbers we may see, but thats about it.
Everyone needs someplace to live regardless of what the unemployment rate is, or possibily will be in 2028. Like I said earlier, You will be thrown out of a rental faster than you will if you stop paying your mortgage.
The bigger picture here is if unemployment worries you, don't buy a house.
If you feel you can't afford it, don't buy a house.
If you think the economy will get worse, don't buy a house.
Etc, etc, etc.
It was never, ever my intention to somehow convince anyone that buying a house would be good for them.
But....and my point has been along.... IF you are in the market to buy a house, now is a pretty good time.
It's funny that now the mantra is "the greatest and most expensive city in the world" and the 50miles rule or whatever - meanwhile LI was very affordable in the late 90s ranking solidly in the top half of the 222 regions tracked. 1998 would have been a banner year to buy a house when LI ranked well above 50.
What's really scary about this index is that from the best I can find researching it, they don't take into consideration property taxes! Imagine if they actually factored that in?
Gotta love the crickets from those looking for "data". lol
So LI has gotten "More expensive" since 1998?
Doesn't this also mean property has become more valuable since 1998?
If you can't afford it, perhaps you should move? OH wait...
Oh, and for the naysayers... I remember 1998 well. The economy had just started coming back from a 15 year downturn. People were sitting with their laptops in Applebees buying online tech stocks.
But....and my point has been along.... IF you are in the market to buy a house, now is a pretty good time.
Totally agree. Prices have come down to a decent level. Could they go down more? Probably, but if you plan on staying in the house atleast 10 years, you should be fine.
Mike, your chart is not helping your case at all.
Housing jumped up quickly and see that blue line towards the right side of the page? It's pretty horiziontal, yes?
This indiciate prices have stabilized.
So the blue line prior to the spike was pretty horiziontal and now after the spike it is leveling again.
THIS IS WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING!!!!!! THANKS FOR PROVING MY POINT!!
Unless you believe the blue line should be lower? Is that it? Housing just shouldn't cost what it does, huh? They are "Priced right" in N Carolina, just not here? If that's the case, would you mind posting a similar chart for the price of milk? How about cars? Electricity? Gasoline? Gee, do you think any of these things are the same price today that they were 10 years ago?
Oh, and since you love these charts, If you look really close you will see the median income has gone up what looks to be around $10,000 since 2003.
Hard to tell as the $100,000 spread between rows is about an eighth inch.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
