[adolpho]

I just bought a condo in Phoenix. I would like to be bullish, but I had to vote for minus 10. NO TRABAJOS!

[mresort]

Originally Posted by sierramadre44

So, when and if Harrah's comes back with an IPO, are you going to invest then? Just wondering. Sands is back up with Aldeson's infusion of cash and Macau's surprising increase in revenue. However, in a previous post the prediction is an economic crisis in China. So, I'm glad you've sold your shares because the future might be a bit tricky.

I will not invest in China now personally. When almost everyone says how good China is, it is about the time for you to retreat.

Remember what Warren Buffet said?
"You should try to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

Well, you don't need to wait until things get bottomed out. If you know the bottom is near you can cautiously invest your money. You may still lose some money in short term but I am sure you will earn it back very soon. The thing about a bottom is that you only know where the bottom is (was) when you start climbing back up the other side. Once you realize the bottom, so do other people. You will face a lot of competitions and the cost of investment may get higher and higher.

You may be able to buy a decent single family house at 100K now. A decent condo may be bought at 70K. It is almost below replacement cost. Even if you lose another 10% or so in 2010, so what? Only $10,000 or less! It is really no big deal. The base price is very low already; it is not like year 2005 or 2006 anymore.

You should never be an investor if you can't afford to lose 10K. And you need to remember you can always rent your house out and maintain a pretty good postive cash flow (I would say at least $400 a month).

[ocean2026]

MR Resort there is some indication that china may be starting its own recession and that some numbers may not have correct.

I tend to disagree with you somewhat on your other assertions though. If the market does decline 20% over the next year or two someone who paid $20k down on a $100k house would have lost his/her equity. True you don't have to catch the market at rock bottom and its hard to time anyway but one should be cautious.

As for buying things below replacement value -its common in many places. There are structures in Texas even that has a good economy selling below replacment ( usually old churches). In Buffalo and Detroit there are houses selling at 10% of replacement value - particularly in Detroit. In Niagara Falls there is a 5 building complex 67,000 sq ft with super architecture and detail asking $225k replacement value is over $1.2 million.

I do agree with your major point - you don't have to buy at the very bottom.. but at least be close.

[mresort]

Originally Posted by ocean2026

MR Resort there is some indication that china may be starting its own recession and that some numbers may not have correct.

I tend to disagree with you somewhat on your other assertions though. If the market does decline 20% over the next year or two someone who paid $20k down on a $100k house would have lost his/her equity. True you don't have to catch the market at rock bottom and its hard to time anyway but one should be cautious.

As for buying things below replacement value -its common in many places. There are structures in Texas even that has a good economy selling below replacment ( usually old churches). In Buffalo and Detroit there are houses selling at 10% of replacement value - particularly in Detroit. In Niagara Falls there is a 5 building complex 67,000 sq ft with super architecture and detail asking $225k replacement value is over $1.2 million.

I do agree with your major point - you don't have to buy at the very bottom.. but at least be close.

Yes, the market may decline another 20% but it is not like the old days anymore.

I am not sure if you notice that majority of people buying Vegas properties are Asians. Most of them tended to pay cash. Even if they put 20% downpayment, they should have at least another 20% sitting at their banks serving as cushion. If you go to Los Angeles suburb of Western San Gabriel Valley you should know what I mean. Even the unemployment rate there is well over 10% the house price still holds pretty strong. A 1400-square-feet and 60-year-old single house with poor condition may be asking for $500K. This is only 5%-10% below the peak of 2006.

[adolpho]

Canadian Dollar is strong, too.

[airics]

Originally Posted by adolpho

I just bought a condo in Phoenix. I would like to be bullish, but I had to vote for minus 10. NO TRABAJOS!

you do realize that this poll is for VEGAS, not Phoenix correct? If it were Phoenix, i would have voted -25% or more... there is no attraction to phoenix .. no tourism, no industry, etc...

[Swigchow]

+10% or more in one year.

[ocean2026]

LOL How did Phoenix get involved. It seems many are more optimistic than I would have guessed although some admit it is "wishful thinking". I still hope for Olecapt and Soprano to give us some detailed answers, so we can move on from arguing about what each said in the past. My own guesses were more detailed than the poll, and hope a few more can elaborate.

The AP just released a story on real estate ( Monday Jan 11) including " Areas that have been most hurt by the housing crisis and whose economies relied on growth -- Sun Belt counties around Las Vegas; Phoenix; Fort Myers, Fla.; and east of Los Angeles -- may be the last to recover.

"It's going to be years before we repair all the damage," said Marshal Vest, director of the Economic and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AP-analysis-Sun-Belt-apf-3050481725.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&cc ode= (broken link)

[ocean2026]

Been gone for a week and despite promises by the two protagonists Soprano and Olecapt still haven't seen their predictions. The old las vegas real estate thread had long become a battle between the two over who was right, when that I figured they could move on to the future. Many others made predictions and that was great.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by ocean2026

Been gone for a week and despite promises by the two protagonists Soprano and Olecapt still haven't seen their predictions. The old las vegas real estate thread had long become a battle between the two over who was right, when that I figured they could move on to the future. Many others made predictions and that was great.

Oops, my bad. I'll weigh in with my $.02 this evening...if I keep my broadband connection. It's been spotty the last 24 hours due to torrential downpours.

BTW, there may be some question about who is right going forward but there's no doubt on who has been repeatedly wrong in the past.