[Camaro5]

As we're looking to (finally) buy a place in the next 4-6 weeks I've been paying close attention to the housing market. The same house in Henderson that went for $265K a few months ago is up to at least $275K or more now. I'd hoped to be mortgage-free, and maybe it's still possible, but if we have to have a small mortgage payment I can live with that.

The way I look at it is here in Illinois we pay $6500/year in property taxes and have a 5% state income tax rate. I can put a portion of that waste of money into a house payment and still come out ahead. Way ahead.

[beachhead]

Originally Posted by Camaro5

The way I look at it is here in Illinois we pay $6500/year in property taxes and have a 5% state income tax rate. I can put a portion of that waste of money into a house payment and still come out ahead. Way ahead.

That's the way we looked at it when we moved here too. Instead of throwing that tax money away, we're putting it into our own family, which we think is a much better investment.

The southern california area has almost completely recovered price-wise to the 2006 peaks. It seems like the Las Vegas area is maybe 70-75% there (at least from the data I find). So, it seems like there should be room for things to continue for a while. When we bought in 2015, it was only about 50% recovered, so hopefully, we're on the good side of the curve (for once anyway!)

Good luck in your search.

[Go Cuse]

Originally Posted by lasvegashere

Just sharing! Could Las Vegas RE market see a correction soon or in 2018, or prices will continue to go up even more, what do you guys think?

Fitch Ratings says prices are 15 percent to 19 percent overvalued and have become “increasingly unsustainable.” (Scott Kost/KSNV)

Bubble watch: Local Realtors say housing market 'appreciating for logical reasons' | KSNV

Just don't buy now. Wait, wait, wait. The prices are too high vs. what you get. Also, the banks are going nuts, lending again.

I would say rent, then wait for these real estate agents to COME TO YOU.

When you have to go to them, and give them what they want (which is what is happening now), you are losing.

[jjf424]

I'm in the same boat, been watching for a few years and finally getting ready to make the move and hopefully buy before the year is out. Do you think it might stabilize/go down? My relative bought in Siena Summerlin for only $175k just since I've been watching a few years ago, and those same 2bd connected homes are already up to the 250-300 range. Now I feel I'm missing my chance and will be over 300k by end of year?

[Cold Warrior]

Inventory is extremely low. It seems unlikely that prices will fall.

[ddrhazy]

Anything under $300k is quickly appreciating, that segment of the market will reach it's 2006 value before other market segments will. You should not wait if you are sure you want to be in LV.

[lvmensch]

With ddr. Present outlook for the low end is something around 10%. Just took a look at the most popular model in Sun City Summerlin. Up 20% in the last year. Used to be a best buy for the frugal. No more.

[stilllookin]

I love it.

1. Inventory low, so prices will go up. Only if the builders don't crank up the output and throw tons of supply into the market in the next year or two. Home construction is a direct transfer function. You buy some dirt, and some wood/concrete/glass/plastic/etc, hire some flunkies to pound it all together, and a real estate "professional" HA HA, and you make a profit...maybe. If prices get too high, builders flood in and supply comes up. It is not a constrained market in any way, unless you have some special situation. If you think it's something else, get over it.

2. XYZ builder says demand is up. No conflict there, so sign me up. It's called talking your book.

3. They're not building any more land...that one is great. For beach property that might be true, but there is lots of desert out there, and here in the midwest, a lot of cornfields.

4. Prices are going up over the last xyx months, so I had better buy now. Maybe. Or maybe not. Are you a real estate speculator now? Speculators were buying after the blow out, not now. Maybe if you wait a year, another builder moves in and throws another 1500 houses into an area. Damn the luck.

We just need more real estate platitudes.

My guess, and it's only a guess, it that the low rents vs sales prices in henderson indicate the near term demand for housing is weak, and that sales prices will run out of steam. If not, everyone will just rent from their landlord who lives in Cali.

[BBMW]

Regarding #3 You do know that most of the empty land surrounding metro Vegas is owned by the Federal Government, and they only sell it of slowly and periodically. It's not like the developer can drive out to any patch of empty desert and start building.

Originally Posted by stilllookin

I love it.

1. Inventory low, so prices will go up. Only if the builders don't crank up the output and throw tons of supply into the market in the next year or two. Home construction is a direct transfer function. You buy some dirt, and some wood/concrete/glass/plastic/etc, hire some flunkies to pound it all together, and a real estate "professional" HA HA, and you make a profit...maybe. If prices get too high, builders flood in and supply comes up. It is not a constrained market in any way, unless you have some special situation. If you think it's something else, get over it.

2. XYZ builder says demand is up. No conflict there, so sign me up. It's called talking your book.

3. They're not building any more land...that one is great. For beach property that might be true, but there is lots of desert out there, and here in the midwest, a lot of cornfields.

4. Prices are going up over the last xyx months, so I had better buy now. Maybe. Or maybe not. Are you a real estate speculator now? Speculators were buying after the blow out, not now. Maybe if you wait a year, another builder moves in and throws another 1500 houses into an area. Damn the luck.

We just need more real estate platitudes.

My guess, and it's only a guess, it that the low rents vs sales prices in henderson indicate the near term demand for housing is weak, and that sales prices will run out of steam. If not, everyone will just rent from their landlord who lives in Cali.

[stilllookin]

Good. Let's call it Deficit Reduction City, NV.

Fed gubmit sells off maybe a small 100,000 acre patch of sand and builders build 400,000 homes there.

Fed gumbit would love the money.
Builders would love the profit.
Real Estate "professionals" would say this is the greatest place to be, with the best schools, lowest crime on record (because we stopped counting), etc, etc.
Transplants from Cali/Illinois/ny, get new, cheaper houses, in the sun.
Las Vegas turns into yesterday's city and become a huge HOOD.

It's a win/win/win/win.

Well, except for the schmucks who paid $350,000 in Henderson in 2017. Oh My!