[ramkobe]

I am seriously thinking about becoming a professional sports-bettor.

Currently I live in So Cal with my family (free rent and utilities) which is around 4 hours away. I drive to Vegas 2-3 times a week which means I don't get to bet every day and have missed out on a lot of winners. I am just too exhausted after each round trip so can't do it more often. I don't stay because hotels are too costly. My car gets 45mpg so it doesn't cost that much in fuel.

Pros of moving to Vegas:
-get to bet everyday, so no more winners missed because I was too tired to drive or got stuck in traffic
-get to bet online with William Hill app
-earn more comps
-no more 8 hour commutes
-no more 25k miles a year on my car


Cons of moving to Vegas:
-get to bet everyday, which could also mean more losing bets and less discipline
-pay rent & utilities
-stuck in a hot desert with nothing to do (like hiking)
-miss my dogs

So do you think it would be more advantageous to move or just stay?

[Buzz123]

The only thing you're wrong about is hiking. Proximity to great hiking is a huge plus for living here, and I'm not talking about the desert in the summertime. Although you can hike in the desert at least five or six months out of the year.

The big question you should be asking yourself is what will you do the second week you're here after you lose all your money.

[C_A_Braun]

Surely there are proxies online in Nevada that will allow you to place your sport bet from any computer in the world.

[MSchu]

The variance will have less impact on the "mean" of your equity line based on the fact that you are doing it more often... but you need to be a +EV wagerer, otherwise you will simply loose far faster, and that is just speaking in terms of generalized game theory.

if you are a loosing bettor, don't do it... your expectation is negative (-), and the ROR (Risk of Ruin) is highly probable. However, if you show a consistent track record of growth via a meaningful (large) sample size, then yeah... vegas is cool.

can't you do this shyte online or over the phone now?

[ramkobe]

I just turned $500 into $7000 the past 2 months so I must be doing something right. Had I been living in Vegas, it would be over $10,000, missed out on a lot of winners lately (Twolves, Yanks, Angels yesterday for example).

[MSchu]

sample size is WAY TO SMALL... and you're looking at the wrong figures to make the evaluation.

Do not look at dollar figures... that is irrelevant, you need to look at ROI (Return on Investment) in terms of percentage to decide if you are a +EV (Expected Value) gamer.

you're "expectation" is unrealistic using the idea "I made $7000 in 2 months starting with $500". that is unsustainable for the most part and is a prime example of "Variance"... the positive kind.

your standard deviation will constantly swing back and fourth between +/- and deviating from your "mean"... you just happen to be looking at the positive (+) side of variance right now.

Variance is an alluring siren... calling and seducing you to ruin if you are not careful.

[ramkobe]

Originally Posted by C_A_Braun

Surely there are proxies online in Nevada that will allow you to place your sport bet from any computer in the world.

I've heard they use GPS to block you if you leave Nevada.

Still need a Vegas residency to set up an account, I believe.

[ramkobe]

Originally Posted by MSchu

The variance will have less impact on the "mean" of your equity line based on the fact that you are doing it more often... but you need to be a +EV wagerer, otherwise you will simply loose far faster, and that is just speaking in terms of generalized game theory.

if you are a loosing bettor, don't do it... your expectation is negative (-), and the ROR (Risk of Ruin) is highly probable. However, if you show a consistent track record of growth via a meaningful (large) sample size, then yeah... vegas is cool.

can't you do this shyte online or over the phone now?

I've been doing this part-time for many years and have done pretty well. I did have a bad 2013 but in 2012 won around $15,000. But when I win big I tend to throw money management out the window and start betting $2000-$3000 a game and end up losing it all.

Do you mean bet with offshore books? I could but they have slow payed and outright scammed me so many times that I don't trust them anymore. Vegas books have always paid.

[MSchu]

yeah...off shore books are iffy these days unless you have an ongoing relationship with them in good faith. but even that is no guarantee.

well... do what you want but money management is KEY, in terms of maintaining any assemblance to ongoing profitability.

And chasing losses is really not what you want to do... "Bank Roll" management is critical. How much variance affects your ability to play and in which fashion you play is directly related to BR sizing. if you loose, you shouldn't bet larger to chase losses, you should bet smaller to keep the effects of variance from Ruining your ability to earn.

[NLVgal]

Would it be illegal to have a local friend place your bets for you? That might be cheaper than driving here each time you want to bet, even if you have to compensate your friend for the time spent at the sports book.