[NLVgal]

Originally Posted by observer53

"Throw her against the wall" because she allegedly doesn't understand the affect of foreclosures on the LV real estate market? Perhaps some links re: your accusation would help.

I don't have a link, but she did participate in legislation against the banks. This was legislation attempted at keeping people in their homes and punishing lenders who didn't dot their I's and cross their T's. ( Also intended to garner votes, no doubt- this is Nevada after all)

Perhaps the poster you were responding to is a frustrated realtor or investor. Either way, "throwing someone against the wall" is a little over the top for me, so I will avoid this poster in the future.

[lvoc]

The whole AB284 thing is silly. We are doing exactly the same thing as Phoenix about a quarter or two behind. There is no AB284 in Phoenix.

The terms of AB284 are very close to the same as the terms in the great mortgage settlement.

So this is simply nonsense. No doubt there is something weird going on...but it is a lot broader base than a Nevada legislative screwup.

One of the truly amazing things is that the pricing of the small homes has continued to decline even in the face of vanishing inventory. That is absolutely weird.

And we continue to maintain a differential of more than $25 per SF between non-distressed and distressed properties. And that is insane as well.

So a totally weird and likely artificial market driven mostly by bank manipulation. But why and what happens next is in no way clear.

Talk of large dumping suddenly is also crazy. The maximal capability of the system without AB284 was less than 3000 units a month. So worse case they could drive some of the classics off the market for a while...but overall that is not going to change things around a lot. And we will see it coming. I would expect it to take more than a quarter for any large foreclosure push to be initiated.

So I suspect next month will be like this month which was like last month with only slow movement of volume or price. Right now it looks like volume is up a bit from last month and price up a little.

[logline]

Wachter on Housing Market Outlook: Video - Bloomberg

Some pretty optimistic prognostications... not just in Las Vegas either. I'm not sure if I'm a full believer that this is sustainable, but I can't help but notice the facts.

[eventusstultorummagister]

The sTaTe of The naTion’s housing 2 0 1 2

FACT SHEET:
http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jc..._key_facts.pdf

J o i n t C e n t e r f o r H o u s i n g s t u d i e s o f H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y

[Datafeed]

Originally Posted by lvoc

The maximal capability of the system without AB284 was less than 3000 units a month..

Hi,

What do you mean by capability?

[eventusstultorummagister]

Originally Posted by MSchu

hot... who thinks the market is hot?

it's merely firm.

More like... "sketchy".

[eventusstultorummagister]

Originally Posted by Datafeed

Hi,

What do you mean by capability?

It's one of those deals where...

like I said before...

in theory mind you....

[lvoc]

Originally Posted by Datafeed

Hi,

What do you mean by capability?

This is a system with people and procedures. These limit flow rate. Some of the pieces are governmental. Many belong to the banks. At the peak of the runup with more than 5,000 REOs in inventory they were processing around 3000 units a month. And within a quarter they were down to 2700. With the newer requirements I doubt they could handle half as many. Over a long period of time they could do better perhaps but you are now talking in years rather than months. Paper does not flow magically. It has to be looked at, actions taken, decision made. It is time consuming.

There is a famous case in the literature of large development. What can you do with an infinite budget? It is always an interesting exercise. The first thing you learn is that there are very tight limits on how fast an organization can grow. You have to train the newly arrived. You have to procure, install and startup new tools. And all the resources you use for this are taken from the primary mission.

Practically you have to delay the short term deliverables for the longer term capability. You can be twice as good in a year...but only at the cost of half production now...

And when you run up against a governmental limit you may not be able to fix it with money...Say the recorder is processing all the documents that are feasible with the existing system. If you add more you simply create a back log of undone work which grows without limit. It constrains your ability to proceed as you must wait for the document(s) to come out of the pipe. Soon you foreclose only as many homes as the recorder will process...

[Datafeed]

Thanks.

I figured as much..kinda like you can only deploy so many surge troops as the logistics, transport, and life support can only process so many..or how only so many projects are "shovel ready" no matter how much money you have.

I do think that the private sector, as opposed to government, has the ability to rapidly increase pipeline bandwith if they believe additional profits can be made pretty quickly.

[eventusstultorummagister]

Generalissimo Franco is Still Dead