[dude66]

Originally Posted by gulfer

3. Inflation has been relatively under control SHEP, don't you think? Hard to count Oil (although I know you have to). As long was our government doesn't devaluate the dollar by bailing out the mortgage mess, we should . We're close to some real scary scenarios I think.

Uh... have you bought food lately? That is INFLATION in capital letters. And yeah, you do have to count oil, which just hit $90/barrel today (the govt. likes to ignore the fact that most people drive and heat homes). And yes, the dollar is ALREADY devaluing - rapidly to historic lows - so pretty much everything you just said is unwinding right now.

[Eric Young]

If one accepts that the market historically ebbs through February, most buyers should hibernate for the next few months then re-evaluate the state of the market as well as particular opportunities.

Currently, about 1% of SFR homes are being offered at undered $100 per sqaure foot.

Perhaps some of them are screaming deals now. Perhaps there may be a better selection or a broader selection of < $100 PSF in February.

I track the resale market on a daily basis. Inventory in October is, for the first time since last February, steady or declining and pending sales aren't declining (also for the first time in a long time, too).

Clearly, no one knows the perfect time to buy until after the fact. With that in mind, whether this or any other time is the time to pull the trigger or not usually depends on one's reason for buying (or selling) as well as the particular property in question.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Chest Rockwell

Would I be better off getting my house on the market ASAP or waiting a year?

Depends on what you are giong to do next.

If you are selling and buying again in Vegas do it whever convenient. It pretty much moves all together. Note that the market is at its slowest in at least the last five years.

If leaving to go somewhere more stable you will likely do better now than in the winter. I can't see any price upticks before spring and I can certainly see further lowering of prices. I would think the current inventory levels block anything but price decreases well into next year and maybe past there.

[SHEPNYC]

Originally Posted by olecapt

I can't see any price upticks before spring and I can certainly see further lowering of prices. I would think the current inventory levels block anything but price decreases well into next year and maybe past there.

You seem much more realistic, about the state of the housing market in Las Vegas, than you were a couple of months ago.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by SHEPNYC

You seem much more realistic, about the state of the housing market in Las Vegas, than you were a couple of months ago.

Virtually the same. You busters just don't understand clear English unless it favors your views.

I have been reasonably pessimistic about this market since the inventory began to rise again in the spring.

For the RE professionals there is now a little hope. Prices appear to be dropping and sales rising. At this point I project October will be better than September...which is opposite the normal seasonal trend. Nothing great but better than having the slump get worse.

[Eric Young]

Just a quick update on the Existing Detached Single-Family Residential market in Las Vegas, North Las Vegas and Henderson, NV, based on the early numbers for October:

In each of the past three years, October numbers were negative compared to the previous month. In '04, '05 and '06, listings increased an average of 3.8% and sales declined an average of 11.5%.

This year, both the number of listings and the number of sales appear likely to be statistically identical to September.

There is a slight uptick in pending sales (2.1% as of October 22, 2007).

Vacant listings and distressed (REO and short sales) listings continue to increase in the aggregate and as a percentage of total listings.

If confirmed at month-end, the October numbers may portend that we have reached or are nearing equilibrium and that the rapid expansion of supply has reached or is nearing a plateau. Whether this potential plateau is a bottom or simply a pause before another move up or down, only time will tell.

Plateau or not, equilibrium in supply or not, prices will remain under intense pressure from the vacant and distressed listings and seem likely to continue to decline through the winter months.

[VegasResident]

Originally Posted by dude66

If home prices can jump 54% in a few years based on easy money.... then they can fall 54% just as fast when the easy money dries up and unsold inventory levels explode. Look out below!

I think a more realistic landing is prices will return to what they might have been with a more reasonable appreciation rate of 4-5% per year. I doubt you will see it return to pre 2004 because then you would have to accept the premise that houses in Vegas should not appreciate at all over 4-7 years.

Sellers and buyers can be unrealistic and right now they probably both are.

While sellers should use current comparables and not look for the 2006 sky high price, buyers should not ignore comparables and ask for 30% below that with closing and down payment included.

[VegasResident]

Originally Posted by SHEPNYC

You have to consider the effects of inflation at about 3% per year, so the 9% is really equal to about 14% over the past 18 months. Translation, the house that was worth $500,000 18 months ago is now worth $430,000 in REAL dollars when considering inflation. If you loose another 9% over the next 18months, that same house will be worth $387,000 in REAL dollars when considering inflation. If you sell and figure in broker fees, closing costs, moving cost, etc. you would be lucky to net $360,000 from the house.

That's how quickly your profits disappear on the house that was originally purchased for $325,000 prior to the run up in prices. Net Net you would be ahead about 10% from purchase price.

Or to make it easier, take the pre run up price of the house (2003) and appreciate it about 1.5% above annual inflation and you will probably arrive at the appropriate value for sale had the investors not arrived.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by VegasResident

Or to make it easier, take the pre run up price of the house (2003) and appreciate it about 1.5% above annual inflation and you will probably arrive at the appropriate value for sale had the investors not arrived.

Don't think so. There was a structural change in 2004. We went from the abundant cheap land to the limited land model. I don't think we will see a huge drop in the price of land and that guarantees that most of the 2004 increase will stick.

It is going to be a long and painful passage to the new stable state.

[ackackack]

olecapt, although I have to agree with you to a point, I don't buy the land shortage. Hawaii has a land shortage...Las Vegas doesn't. Look around, there's empty desert everywhere. I know that almost all of it is owned by the BLM, but they will sell it, like they always do. When they do, I'd like to see if they also adjust values, and by how much.