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Just wondering what everyone thinks about this. Jim Cramer said some things yesterday which led me to believe that no matter how much "homework" you do, there are forces out there that we do not know about, that are influencing the market, that are causing these wild ups and downs. Being a new investor, and having lost most of my stock market investments, should I just get out, cause YOU CAN'T WIN ???? If this is the case, I want to stop throwing good money out the window.
Whadda ya think??
Until the CDS market is ripped out, you don't even stand a chance of making an informed decision. You can make educated guesses, but you have to remember that the market makers make better educated guesses because of their positions.
With commodities being as low as they are now, it actually might be a safer place to gamble than the market. JMO, YMMV.
I think you're question is two parts. I don't think the market is "rigged" in that all the players have agreed on an outcome but I do think major players try to influence it in their preferred direction. Sometimes they are successful, sometimes not.
But even if there was no manipulation or "rigging" whatsoever, you would still have the chaos factor. So it's true that no matter how much homework you do, there are things that you do not and cannot know about. Nobody knows what events are going to happen tomorrow that may affect all stocks, certain types of stocks, or maybe just specific stocks.
The way the market is sold to the public, that's definitely rigged in Wall Street and the brokers favor. Read old books like, "Where are the customers yachts?" There are no yachts.
But human pyschology doesn't change. Go back a year or two before this blow up. Look at Business Week covers. Even a few years ago with the real estate bubble. People start thinking that its different. Real estate can't go down because it's your house. Or because they aren't making any more land. Or you can't sell a house as quickly as a stock or bond, therefore housing can't go down. The wild ups and downs aren't rigged.
In indivual companies though, I wouldn't touch them unless you think you have an advantage. "Homework" is something invented to sell a tv show by Cramer. Read a lot of history, look at similar patterns. That's reliable homework.
I don't know if it's rigged because I don't invest in it, I just trade. I do pretty good, especially now with all the volitility in the market and my buisness has been slow for quite sometime. I have never held any individual stock for more than 30 days. But I spend 5 days a week and 12 to 14 hours a day with it. It can be very stressful but I really enjoy it. And I do like my weekends!
Thank god I have an employee that can run my buisness if I am not there, and he is payed very well for it also. Hope to someday sell it to him and concentrate only on trading. I have missed some good opportunities with just being gone for a couple of hours.
In my opinion if you don't have a lot of time for it, let someone else handle it for you and pray they are honest and good.
I thought I was the only one who believed the market was rigged. After hearing a week of bad new and then seeing the market go up made me think something was up.
I thought I was the only one who believed the market was rigged. After hearing a week of bad new and then seeing the market go up made me think something was up.
Most fund managers and investors decide what they want to do and then find ways to justify it. When they want to buy they will jump on any good news and find the silver lining in any bad news. When they want to sell they will dump on any bad news and find the downside in any good news.
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Of course the big players needed a spike in early Dec. There is bound to be a lot of positions that need to be played out for year end and start of new year. That, coupled with the LTCG $$ that needs to be reaped BEFORE it is reamed (new administration). Then the 'de-leveraging' WOW the $700b didn't even touch the depth is this problem... it must be huge ! (or more huge). What is really scary, is the enormous $$ that are flowing IN BOUND in the form of lower LTCG taxes, will be 'off the table' after 2010 (or sooner, if the administration wants). This is going to exponentially raise the burden to future tax payers. I have paid the equivalent of ~ 10yrs income tax in each of the last few yrs, just to cash in LTCG @ 15% instead of the future 38% + rates. I am a very small fish, this could be a BIG problem in the near future.
The market is not really 'rigged'... it is just very 'accurate', and the market makers know a tad more than the average Joe, and they get their news much earlier (this is VERY important in the new realm of trading). Be careful, you might get scalped. remember there is always someone playing the other side of your trade, and it is likely your broker )
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Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Just wondering what everyone thinks about this. Jim Cramer said some things yesterday which led me to believe that no matter how much "homework" you do, there are forces out there that we do not know about, that are influencing the market, that are causing these wild ups and downs. Being a new investor, and having lost most of my stock market investments, should I just get out, cause YOU CAN'T WIN ???? If this is the case, I want to stop throwing good money out the window.
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