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Time to start thinking about 2022's game. If you pay attention to my posts (as you all should!!) then you know I'm not a fan of "binary" bets.
A binary bet is where you have two outcomes only. Coin Flips. Heads you're a genius, tails you're a moron.
Last year I stopped accepting "short" bets during the season. There will be none this year.
We also allowed people to deploy their money later. Not many took advantage, and to be honest the ones that did, did not exactly kick butt. The IPO Rule is listed below.
I'm kind of "iffy" on whether to do this again. It was not a big burden on me. And it didn't make much of a difference. Like to know how people feel.
The one thing that continues to bother me a bit is Bitcoin/Crypto. Some people bet big on MARA. It's really a bet on Bitcoin. A binary choice. MARA almost isn't a real company. It has 3 full time employees. Another company RIOT has 8 employees.
So pondering Bitcoin and IPOs and soliciting comments. Other than that the rules will be:
The rules for 2022
1. 100,000 total investment
2. 3, 4 or 5 stocks.
3. Minimum placed on any 1 stock is $20,000
4. No Funds/Indexes etc. The point is to choose individual stocks
5. I must be able to look it automatically via Google Finance. So if it's too exotic for Google Finance, you can't play it.
6. No penny stocks. All stocks chosen must have a share price of $1.00 or more.
You can give me your choices anytime, and still have the right to alter then until market opens in 2022.
I am thinking about adding some flexibility. Thinking about letting people deploy their $100K, whenever they want. This would be a pretty big change. Instead of having $100K deployed on Jan 1, you can just have $100K. And deploy it (buy stocks) whenever you want during the year. I'm thinking that any changes have to be locked in before October 1st. And all $100K must be deployed by Oct 1. No cash.
Once you buy something, you are committed to it. No further transactions with that money. For example you can buy $20K of IBM on Feb 12th, and $30K of Apple on May 1 and $50K of Ford on Jun15th. But those transactions are locked once you do them.
Essentially we would be adding timing to the game. A couple people in the past have talked about wanting to do IPOs. This would allow them to do so. One word on IPO's however. If you want to buy an IPO, you'll buy it at the price at the end of the first day. (unless you choose a later date).
I agree with Georgia. I always like to see picks and love gaining and understanding as to why. As always, there's so many things to consider. Rising tax rates, rising interest rates, low employment participation, supply chain troubles, communist China is back and her real estate market looks set to go bust. Oil was surging and steel prices were up....while iron ore futures fell off the cliff and coal was banned left and right.
To avoid the binary issue, you could have a limit on the sector as opposed to at the stock level. That would also keep a person from going 100% semiconductor or banks but still allow them to choose something there.
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