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Sun 13Aug 8pEDT:
Atlantic: NHC starts highlighting those tropical waves coming off Africa with low 20% each next 7 days. EURO/GFS both say if something forms it would be at weeks end, but both don't have a clear signal on any development either. LLLOOTTT of dry air / dust SAL coming off with them.
E Pac / C Pac:
-Fernanda formed Sat night between Mexico and Hawaii.
-Area high chance develops just South of Mexico, looks to move generally NW out to sea.
-99e: Area that will move West, staying South of Hawaii 90% chance.
Tues 15Aug 8aEDT:
Atlantic:
-Area between Africa & Caribbean 10% towards Caribbean
-Area leaving Africa 30%, likely out to sea.
-----Both of those not really expected to develop due high amount of SAL near them.
-Models hinting at Central / Western Gulf of Mexico spin up possible towards Sunday/Monday. Will watch if trend continues in models.
E Pac: Area along S Mexico likely develops riding up just off / near Baja, likely helps pull up moisture into SW US.
Tues 15Aug 8pEDT:
Atlantic:
-2 Atlantic areas 30% chance. No consensus in the models, just random chances they find a small area with no dust(very heavy right now). Likely no development unless something changes.
-Low could form within a blob of moisture that looks to move through Gulf of Mexico late this weekend / early next week. Not a lot of support (and NHC at 20%) but conditions look good overall, would move pretty fast, so likely not a lot of time to develop as it stands right now. Big High pressure setting up over Plains/Midwest this weekend would steer anything in Gulf West (North Mexico, TX). For now, looks to increase rain chances coastal regions mainly.
East Pac:
-90e S of Mexico likely forms soon. Euro has moved towards GFS in bringing large amount of moisture into SW US, several inches could be possible - flood dangers. Rain/flooding should be primary focus. Looks like will have rapidly weakening tropical system near the coast early next week.
Thurs 17Aug 8aEDT/7aCDT:
Atlantic:
-Our 2 areas between Caribbean/Africa 60% chance. No real solid storms in models, just hints they may try to spin/form out at sea at random times still.
-Gulf area 30% chance, again blob of moisture moving quickly West in a few days but you watch this time of year.
Fri 18Aug 8aEDT:
Atlantic:
-98L (East Atlantic) 70%
-99L (Central Atlantic) 40%
-Area between 99L and Caribbean 30%
-Gulf 30%
Again, these don't have definitive or long track hurricane signals in models, but could find favorable small pockets they could spin up some in. Moisture/rains heading into Caribbean and also Texas/North Mexico though it appears.
E Pac: 30% area S of Mexico.
Last edited by Psychoma; 08-18-2023 at 06:29 AM..
Reason: Needed directions
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