Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018 (city, sun, moving, wear)

[Psychoma]

26May18 1pCDT/2pEDT: sure enough, center jumped. This would currently mean landfall should be later Monday or Monday night sometime but otherwise has no real effect on anything.

Winds 40mph, moving N 13mph, pressure 999mb.

[TerraDown]

Yes, they just issued a storm warning for Charlotte county, West coast Florida.

"Tropical Storm Watch
Coastal Charlotte County, Florida
2 hours ago – National Weather Service
LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph .."

[chiluvr1228]

I'm in Lee County, just south of Charlotte County, Florida. We have my son's birthday tomorrow in Fort Myers. Glad it's going to be indoors. We have had a lot of rain in the last two weeks or so and our rainy season doesn't officially start until June 1st. Three weeks ago we were in drought conditions with fire danger, now we're already saturated and this system hasn't closed in yet.


After Irma last year I do not want another hurricane especially since some people still have tarps on their roofs.

[Psychoma]

If I'm not mistaken usually the highest winds seen will mostly just be while in heavier showers/bands and calmer when not in one.

Yes, FL got their drought releif by the buckets! I can't imagine still having to deal with tarps on roofs months later.

[Psychoma]

26May18 4pCDT/5pEDT:
Winds 40mph, moving N 13mph, pressure 999mb.

*Changes in this update:
-Tropical Storm Warning West coast of FL from Bonita Beach to Anclote River.
-Tropical Storm Warning N US Gulf Coast from Aucilla River West to MS/AL border.
-Tropical Storm & Storm Surge Watch canceled for Pearl River westward.
-Isolated tornadoes will be possible across the FL Keys, and West-central FL this evening/tonight.

*Watch turning to Warning was expected since warning means closer in time to the event, expected somewhere in the warning area, but nothing new prompted it.

Updated cone map (shows watches/warnings as well):


"Most Likely" arrival time map of Tropical Storm force winds (39mph+):

[Psychoma]

26May18 7pCDT/8pEDT:
Winds 40mph, moving N 13mph, pressure 1002mb.

*Changes in this update: none

Remember to see local conditions from the NWS here: https://www.weather.gov/

Alberto will have the best chance to strengthen/organize near the North US Gulf coast starting sometime Sunday until landfall:


Tropical moisture spreading north (the yellows, oranges, reds):


( http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-tim...hrs&anim=html5 )

[Psychoma]

26May18 10pCDT/11pEDT:
Winds 40mph, moving NNE 13mph, pressure 1001mb
(when pressure lowers it tells us it's strengthening, change in wind speed follows thereafter, holding generally steady for now though)

*Changes in this update:
*Storm center jumped again (or reformed a new one actually) a little to the NE of previous one.
*Storm Surge Watch West of the MS/AL border canceled.
*Tornadoes, typically small and very brief, will be possible across FL Sunday (This threat moves to the Gulf coast states by Monday).

-Surge Watch will likely change to Warning Sunday (because closer to event).
-It's still possible a Hurricane Watch will be issued but most models do NOT bring this to Cat1 Hurricane, but it is in the realm of possibility.

-Remote NOAA station at Pulaski Shoals well off FL coast measured 38mph sustained winds, gust 44mph.

NHC's forecasted wind speed:
-Sun 11a 50mph
-Sun 11p 60mph
-Mon 11a 65mph (more or becoming more symmetric Tropical Storm towards this point)
-Mon 11p 65mph
-Tues 11p 30mph (inland)
-Wed 11p 25mph
-Thur 11p 15mph (Post-Tropical)

Cone Map:


Surge Watch Map (2-4 ft above normal tide level possible):


SPC says higher risk of tornadoes across S FL tonight (Saturday night):



Edit adding:

Possible scattered rain to come 7-day image:




If you want a detailed explanation of what's going on with the storm see this thread:
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1000576605024997378

[Psychoma]

27May18 4aCDT/5aEDT (Changes/quick summary items in bold)
Winds 40mph, moving NNE 13mph, pressure 1001mb

*Changes in this update:
**Track shift further East about 30miles**
*Tropical Storm Warning therefore extended to include Anclote River to Aucilla River FL.
*Additional rain possible:
--FL Panhandle, E AL, W GA: 4-8in, isolated 12in
--FL Keys & S FL: 3-6in, isolated 10in, rest of FL 1-4in
--TN and Carolina's: 2-6in
*Forecast winds (Lower due to new track & land interaction timing, and storm will be closer to cooler waters on FL West coast (tropical systems feed off warm waters)):
--Sun 5a 40mph
--Sun 5p 45mph
--Mon 5a 50mph
--Mon 5p 60mph (near land)
--Tue 5a 40mph (inland)
--Wed 5a 25mph (inland)

-Winds up to 40mph extend up to 150miles from storm center, mainly its East side.
-Voluntary evacuations under way in parts of Polk Co., NC due to mudslide threat (suffered flooding/mudslides last weekend)

New cone map:


FYI: the shift east does increase Big Bend region Storm Surge threat but still currently in the 2-4ft above normal tide level range. See interactive zoomable map here and you'll also see how any waterway connected to the Gulf can help carry water inland): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...ation#contents

[Cambium]

All latest Hurricane models have it making landfall at the Panhandle of Florida. Most send it up through Alabama


It should stay Tropical Storm status at landfall nothing more.


Hurricane Forecast Model Output :: [Main]

[Psychoma]

Follow near real-time aircraft recon in the storm here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Pressure dropping as tries to strengthen but is wrapping that nearby dry air into itself choking it off some: