New forecast for the 2007 hurricane season (climate, average, storms, seasons)

[sunrico90]

A new forecast for the 2007 hurricane season is out. The UK Met Office is forecasting ten more named storms. This is less than what the other forecasts are saying. The group forecasts a cooling of Atlantic sea surface temps and says it is using a global climate model. The UK Met Office did not release a forecast for number of hurricanes or major hurricanes. The office is in England and if you're interested, search the web for more info or try Met Office: Weather and climate change It's an interesting read.

Met Office forecasts Atlantic tropical storm season

The Met Office has today released its Atlantic tropical storm frequency forecast for the 2007 season.

Ten tropical storms are predicted as the most likely number to occur in the North Atlantic during the July to November period, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range seven to 13. This represents below-normal activity relative to the 1990-2005 long-term average of 12.4.

This unique Met Office forecast, the only one in the world produced using global climate models, has proven to provide unparalleled accuracy and advice in trials during 2005 and 2006. In both these years the Met Office forecast outperformed more-traditional methods based on historical analysis alone.

Matt Huddleston, Met Office Principal Consultant on climate change says: "The Met Office forecast has already demonstrated its unparalleled skill over previous seasons, successfully predicting the change from the exceptionally active Atlantic season of 2005 to the below-normal season of 2006. This marked difference between seasons was missed by a number of statistical prediction methods, which have traditionally formed the basis of most published forecasts."

Rob Varley, Head of the Public Weather Service says: "The Met Office has been providing seasonal forecasts for the UK successfully for several years and the tropical storm forecast is the next step. The development of the tropical storm forecast will help the UK government protect the interests of its citizens and businesses abroad."

The tropical storm frequency forecast is derived using the Met Office’s world-leading climate prediction model, taking into account the impacts of the ocean and atmosphere on the forecast for the next six months. This groundbreaking forecasting method allows us to produce a risk-based forecast for the coming tropical storm season.

The Met Office has the scientific expertise and technological capability to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes ranging from individual short-range track and landfall projections through to activity on a seasonal timescale.

[Mike1306]

That is for the North Atlantic.
Really not indicative of what to expect here.

[Suncoaster]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

That is for the North Atlantic.
Really not indicative of what to expect here.

The state of FL juts out into the North Atlantic (north of the equator), so it would be quite indicative of what we can expect.

Yes, the TWO does begin each update with "For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico....." but the Met Office probably was including those areas in the North Atlantic.

[Suncoaster]

Thank you Sunrico for posting that article. Very interesting - and I noticed that it said that the Met Office accurately forecast the 2006 Season to be less active, which U.S. outlooks for the 2006 Season missed.

It's a bit of good news - the UK Met Office is predicting fewer storms than the NOAA outlook and Dr. Gray/Dr. Klotzbach, I believe. But of course, we'll have to wait and see.

[NatureCoastFL]

No matter who predicts what, just always be prepared. 92 was an "inactive" year as well.

The UKMet prediction is more computer model based than others, so we will have to wait and see how they fare.

The latest ENSO was neutral based and La Nina may be delayed or not arrive at all depending on who you listen to. 2005 was an ENSO neutral year....


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

[Mike1306]

Originally Posted by Suncoaster

The state of FL juts out into the North Atlantic (north of the equator), so it would be quite indicative of what we can expect.

Yes, the TWO does begin each update with "For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico....." but the Met Office probably was including those areas in the North Atlantic.

I was not trying to say the North Atlantic storms did not matter just that it was leaving out a big part of the total.
A good portion of the storms that affect Florida are formed in the Caribbean or the Gulf. I was not aware that they were including The Caribbean and Gulf in the total estimate.