What am I missing? Is Houston Real Estate Market really slowing down?

[EMGuy]

Thanks for your interesting observations. Yes, I don't think the majors will start layoffs. But, the contractors that support them will. And, with all of the housing construction going on that might start putting big pressure on housing. We will be coming into the Houston market in early Spring. Seems like there might be a case for renting rather than buying when we arrive.

Interesting that the data, at this point, doesn't support that view. But, the housing market could turn pretty quickly if the market perception changes.

[LocalPlanner]

Remember that we have been in a period of extraordinary growth, adding 100K+ jobs per year for two to three years in a row. A more "average" year would be 55,000 - 75,000 jobs. Lower oil prices would probably mean a slowdown in the very rapid growth we've had, but it would take a total economic crisis along the lines of 2008-09 to actually lose jobs in the region, and this seems very unlikely.

Slowing job growth would give the housing market (both rental and for-sale) a chance to catch up, which it needs. The rapid rent and price increases we've had due to supply/demand imbalance really aren't good for the city, since affordability combined with big-city amenities has always been a selling point. Apartment rents plateauing or softening a little in more popular areas of town wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing - it's not like they'll suddenly be offering one bedrooms for $600 in Montrose Class A projects, so don't think it means suddenly all these new complexes will become low-income ghettos. And the single family market has been even further behind, so a pause is really welcome to some extent.