Houston Real Estate Bubble Watch (The Woodlands, Spring: for sale, 2013, mortgages)

[jaegermister]

I have been home shopping in the inner loop to be zoned into West U, Roberts, Horn, Twain or Conduit without much luck, often outbid.

Today i stumbled upon this article from Forbes and according to data published here we, Houston is overvalued -
Bubble Watch: Home Prices Simmering, Not Bubbling | Trulia Trends

I am wondering what the experienced folks here think about property prices next year. Also Q3 profits of all the major O & G companies dropped 10%, would this impact home prices next year.

Thanks

[Rip808]

I don't think there is a relation between the O&G companies profits and house values. Otherwise, in 2008-2010 house values would have doubled and tripled.

I think Houston has "housing bubbles" in pockets. I'm looking straight at you "The Woodlands"... I don't think the rate of increases is sustainable. I expect there to be a cool down..as to when? I have no clue.

[cheryjohns]

I call BS. Houston has always escaped traditional wisdom. We never had a bubble when the bubble was going on. We had a real estate melt-down in the 80's - and the appraisers will never forget it. We did not have a bubble - just an oil and gas glitch. We aren't close to a bubble - not even The Woodlands.

[Schumacher713]

Dream on if you think housing prices are going down or we are nearing a bubble.

[cheryjohns]

Originally Posted by Schumacher713

Dream on if you think housing prices are going down or we are nearing a bubble.

Agree - stand back if you are waiting for a drop.

[EasilyAmused]

I agree it varies from area to area.

I still watch HAR, and in my area I don't really see anything to buy or anything that I would be tempted to buy, unlike a few years ago.no one is really selling unless they have to. There is far more upgrading, and people putting a lot of money into homes they've lived in for years. This is in the south side of Spring Branch ISD, where desirable inventory is very slim in all price ranges.

As one of my friends in the neighborhood, who is expecting a fourth child and wants a bigger house said, "there really is no where to move to." So, he is putting a second story on his ranch house. In the end it will cost him half of what a move up to a bigger house of same updating would cost. Like many things, "it's cheaper to keep her" in some areas of Houston.

[KatieKennedy]

We just did a renovation on our house in West U for the reasons the previous posters have mentioned. The only houses coming up for sale in our section of the neighborhood have contracts on them almost as soon as they go on the market. These days you have to pay to play in the good school zones inside the loop the OP is considering.

[desihorn]

There is really now way for anyone to take a city as large and with such economic diversity as Houston and put a single number to it for Home Prices. Using this as a data point in a trend is probably more useful. Here are some reasons to not call a bubble yet -

1. There are probably bubble mini-pockets but having seen the 2000-2008 bubbles in other cities this just does not feel like it. There are no people lining up at 4:00 AM for a new home opening. Yes, there are multiple offers in certain areas but I have not heard of 100K over market and other numbers that I used to hear in the East coast.

2. Mortgages are still not that easy to come by which indicates that people buying these houses are typically ones who can afford it and not just speculating.

3. I do see some crazy flips and speculations in my neighborhood around West Belt/I-10 but generally I am seeing an increase in renovations and expansions. The inventory here is either old and expensive or very new and super-expensive. So if you need space, putting in 100K - 200K seems to be a reasonable thing to do. I take this as a good sign. People love where they live and are investing into their 1960 homes and hence their neighborhoods

4. Houston still has places where you can buy a home in the 200s range and have a decent school. Yes, you may pay for it with a commute. This separates us from many cities in the West and the East where that option is hard to come by. We also have lot of people moving in. In my small office which offers some flexibility on where you want to live in the country, we have had 3 people move in from other parts of the country/ world in the last two months. For all the negative I see on this board, they love the city. Mind you these are not low-paid jobs.

Now if the barrel drops to $50 all this logic goes out of the window !

[Schumacher713]

Houston is unique in that we are a city that is growing like mad. Our population is projected to pass Chicago. This is simply supply and demand. I know to many it sounds crazy to spend over a million on a house. Trust me. There are plenty that can afford it. I would not be surprised to see housing prices double in prime loop areas over the next 10 years.

And there is no way oil will ever go that low. Oil prices should slowly rise.

[desihorn]

Originally Posted by Schumacher713

Houston is unique in that we are a city that is growing like mad. Our population is projected to pass Chicago. This is simply supply and demand. I know to many it sounds crazy to spend over a million on a house. Trust me. There are plenty that can afford it. I would not be surprised to see housing prices double over the next 10 years.

Rich people live in… Houston | Wealth-X

Over 2000 people with a net worth of $30M. Take that down to 25, 20,10...... and you start seeing why we have so many expensive homes and Lambos on the streets