A New Housing Boom? Don’t Count on It (Houston: sale, 2013)

[Bideshi]

Originally Posted by laiall

While I would normally agree with you here, this isn't just any professor. He is a highly regarded Yale Economics Professor who called both the dot com and housing bubbles before they hit. He is also the co-creator of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index which is one of the most widely used metrics in regards to housing prices.

I haven't read the article yet, but knowing its from him its definitely worth a read..

A nomination for the Nobel prize in economics is highly over rated. You should believe what the real estate people are telling you. It's the best time to buy!

[desertsun41]

Listen people. If you buy.........buy for shelter and piece of mind as well as pride in home ownership. Do not worry or dream about gaining appreciation. While a few isolated areas in the USA still seem to be increasing in value, it's not only rare but in those places, few of us can afford anyway.

Home ownership used to be called The American Dream. Today it's called the American Dream because you have to be sleeping to accomplish that dream. The American Dream has become the America nightmare for so many many people. It's so sad.

Henry Ford once said: I would never dream of building a product where the people who work for me could not afford to buy one. Today it's very very difficult for the average Joe to buy a home.

To the person who said they got a mortgage with a 699 score. Feel lucky, it's very rare. But we all applaud you for not buying more then you need. Most of us believe that was some of the cause of the current mess where people were buying giant homes they did not need. Then ended up losing them.

[houston-nomad]

Originally Posted by desertsun41

The Author is a Professor of Economics. The man never swung a hammer or pushed a saw in his life. He crunches numbers, most taken from the government. And we all know how truthful this govt is.

While I too hear some quivering of lips cautiously saying things are looking up in the housing industry, I see little evidence, not no evidence, just a little. Never forget the damage the current economic depression has caused that will take many decades to correct.

Think of all those who lost their homes through no fault of their own. They will never again be homeowners with their credit, maybe in 10 years if they are lucky. They are eternal renters. So you have that group of potential buyers out of the picture. Now you have many more with something less then an 800 FICO which pretty much eliminates them from qualifying for any mortgage. I think I previously posted only 12 % of United States residents have a FICO that high. Banks just are not lending so the low interest rate advertised is completely irrelevant.

When first time buyers can't buy that first home then the second time buyers can't move up and up the ladder it goes. 30% of all home sales in this country are 2nd home vacation purchases. That kinda suggests to me that the majority of buyers are wealthy and virtually unaffected by the economic depression.

32% of all home sales in America are by investors. Most are all cash purchases.

Our own crappy newspaper here in Houston reported that cash rich investors accounted for almost 4% of all sales in this city where we don't nearly have as many foreclosures as anywhere else. The hardest hit areas like Las Vegas and Phoenix the vast majority of home purchases are by investors snapping up what they feel are deals. Yet purchases by first time buyers continue to fall everywhere. One can't buy a home without a job. That statement holds anywhere but not so much for here where minimum wage jobs are plentiful. But no one ever qualified to buy a home on minimum wage salaries.

Sorry I don't see it and my finger is right on the pulse of my industry. I subscribe to nearly every construction journal read by only industry professionals and unbiased by any govt figures or college professors making side money writing articles.

Speaking of "not knowing the industry."

[desertsun41]

Originally Posted by houston-nomad

Speaking of "not knowing the industry."

So what makes you the expert? You bought your first home? That hardly qualifies you so go back to the political forums. I am a contributing Editor for 2 national construction trade journals and I never report what the nightly news is telling me which apparently you believe. Remember, everything you hear on the nightly news is what your govt tells them to report. The gullible public will believe anything if the TV said it's true. And that goes for HGTV too. This show has caused more damage to the construction industry then the economic depression has.

[houston-nomad]

Originally Posted by desertsun41

So what makes you the expert? You bought your first home? That hardly qualifies you so go back to the political forums. I am a contributing Editor for 2 national construction trade journals and I never report what the nightly news is telling me which apparently you believe. Remember, everything you hear on the nightly news is what your govt tells them to report. The gullible public will believe anything if the TV said it's true. And that goes for HGTV too. This show has caused more damage to the construction industry then the economic depression has.

I never claimed to be an expert, but thanks for the various insults you needlessly slung at me.

My comment was in reference to the fact that you clearly don't understand the writer's profession, if you see his NYT editorial as a way to "make money on the side." You might disagree with his points but in trying to discredit him, you've only discredited yourself.

[fnh]

desertsun41, did you even read the article yourself? I'm trying to figure out the point you're trying to make in this thread. Your comments would actually seem to agree with the author, a thinker who is eminently trained and qualified to assess aggregate data (where you - and I - are not) and who is basically saying he doesn't know where housing is headed. He, like you, is suggesting that there is not much point in wondering whether prices will go up or down, but that one should buy a home when the time is right for them. Am I missing something?

The whole anti-government and anti-smarty-pants stuff is just weird. Is that the real point of this thread?

[crone]

Give it up desertsun. You and the writer are singing the same song.

[cheryjohns]

Originally Posted by BDFP

Not sure where you're getting that from, I had a 680 and got 2.99%, banks were falling all over themselves to lend to me. Could have bought WAY more house than I could afford, jumbo mortgage, secondary loans, the works.

Yes, 640 is the magic number nowadays.

[Houston321]

Real estate isn't local? Take a drive out to Katy and see if there are any houses sold or going up?

[Houston321]

"To the person who said they got a mortgage with a 699 score. Feel lucky, it's very rare. But we all applaud you for not buying more then you need. Most of us believe that was some of the cause of the current mess where people were buying giant homes they did not need. Then ended up losing them."

Rare? I have to question any statement you make after this little tidbit. Houses are bought all the time with a 699, are you nuts? Most of us who sell homes have a smile on our face if the credit comes back at a 699. True, 740 or above is ideal...but thousands upon thousands of loans are closed daily with scores between 640-700.