House prices starting to drop in Williamsburg? (buyers, area)

[Lockdev]

Originally Posted by Mr Williamsburg

I can pick out outliers but here is a small sampling of sales at full price.
5528 Pennington- $392,500 sold at list price.
3324 New Castle Dr- Listed at 249,999 sold at 251k
207 Cherwell - Listed at $436,500 sold in one day at list price
6164 South Mayfair -listed and sold at $310k
6201 Weathersfield Way- listed and sold at $314k
4809 Cotswold CT, listed and sold for $315k in 2 days
4244 Turnberry DR -listed and sold for $258k
3135 Windy Branch- listed and sold for $529k
4237 Falcon Creek DR-Listed and sold at $255k
147 Hartwell Perry WAY -Listed and sold at $385k

Typically homes that are priced right and in good condition are selling quickly at close to list price. There have been many homes listed in our market that were not priced competitively. Those are the ones that are on the market forever. THEY will end up selling at a heft discount from list price. But the list price was inflated in the first place.

I have to agree with that. I'm noticing most homes priced fairly are selling quickly. Most that sell quickly also seem to be higher end homes.

I'm not sure I buy the low inventory though. New listings are starting to out-pace sales.

April added 230 new listings, the most Williamsburg has seen in 4 years. That number has been rising since December.

There are over 1300 homes for sale in the Williamsburg area, and about half have been sitting over 90 days. Average time to sell a house right now is 116 days, and that number is increasing.

To round out that list, here's other homes that sold in May, so you can definitely see not 100% are selling at asking price:

4005 Knox Rd, took a year and sold for 80% of asking
216 John Pinckney Ln, took a year and sold for 80% of asking
104 Red Berkshire, 98.7%
5508 Pennington Pl, 97.6%
3741 Cherry Walk, 96.8%
158 Nina Ln, sold at asking
144 Mid Ocean, 97.9%
201 Waller Mill Rd, sold as asking
139 Country Club Dr, 98%
104 Red Berkshire, 95.9%
104 Augusta, 93.3%
165 Southern Hls, sold at asking
100 Muirfield, 94.9%

[Lockdev]

Also, just got numbers in for May:

328 homes were added to the market.
53 of the roughly 1200 homes on the market were sold, which is down from 91 last month.

Market in Williamsburg is obviously slowing down, and fast.

[Mr Williamsburg]

Here is a report for the following zip codes. 23185, 23188,23168 . So that includes City of Williamsburg, James City County , Toano and Upper York County.

This is all detached homes sold in the last 30 days.

141 homes total.

Median days on market 44

Median list price $315k

Median sold price $311k

Again this is from our MLS.

[Lockdev]

Originally Posted by Mr Williamsburg

Here is a report for the following zip codes. 23185, 23188,23168 . So that includes City of Williamsburg, James City County , Toano and Upper York County.

This is all detached homes sold in the last 30 days.

141 homes total.

Median days on market 44

Median list price $315k

Median sold price $311k

Again this is from our MLS.

Yeah, you're including 23168, which is really throwing the numbers off. The markets in Barhamsville, Lanexa, and Toana are a lot different than the eastern markets of Williamsburg/Jamestown/Bruton.

[Mr Williamsburg]

Originally Posted by Lockdev

Also, just got numbers in for May:

328 homes were added to the market.
53 of the roughly 1200 homes on the market were sold, which is down from 91 last month.

Market in Williamsburg is obviously slowing down, and fast.

We typically don't look at month end numbers for a week or so after the month ends. Brokers scramble to get everything entered and updated. Check again in a week and they will probably look different.

[Lockdev]

Originally Posted by Mr Williamsburg

Here is a report for the following zip codes. 23185, 23188,23168 . So that includes City of Williamsburg, James City County , Toano and Upper York County.

This is all detached homes sold in the last 30 days.

141 homes total.

Median days on market 44

Median list price $315k

Median sold price $311k

Again this is from our MLS.

Just stumbled across something that and it appears your numbers are not correct.

Your chart mentions the min price sold was 110,000. Not true. There was a house sold in Williamsburg(1103 Wilkins Dr) on 5/5/2016 for $97,000, 11.8% under asking.

The real numbers are also in, and there was in fact a huge slowdown in Williamsburg in May. Over 300 homes were put on the market. There were only 70 sales.

It appears inventory is continuing the climb.

[Mr Williamsburg]

Again not sure where you are finding your data. That one house had an incorrect zip code so it didn't appear in a zip code report. You seem to be quite the expert in nationwide real estate stats when I look at your other posts.

I will post a few more recent stats that will contradict your numbers. Homes sales in May totaled 202 not 70 as you stated.



Here is a snapshot of monthly inventory. Doesn't seem to be climbing to me..



One stat that you aren't accounting for in May sales are pending sales which were up over 20% so those sales will be reflected in the coming months.










.

[Lockdev]

Originally Posted by Mr Williamsburg

Again not sure where you are finding your data. That one house had an incorrect zip code so it didn't appear in a zip code report. You seem to be quite the expert in nationwide real estate stats when I look at your other posts.

Here is a snapshot of monthly inventory. Doesn't seem to be climbing to me..

One stat that you aren't accounting for in May sales are pending sales which were up over 20% so those sales will be reflected in the coming months.

.

The zip code for that sale is 23185. It isn't incorrect. Whoever put the data together clearly either simply made a mistake, or made an error to not include it in the sales data. Either way, I wouldn't trust a data source that is polluted with incorrect data, especially when I found that with only a surface view of the numbers.

And also, again your numbers include Toano/Lanexa/Barhamsville. This skews things quite a bit. For a second time, the discussion was on Williamsburg/Jamestown/Bruton. The 23168 is a completely different market.

I also notice in one of your charts, the data is for a select 845 homes, not the 1500 listings shown in another chart.

It's clear as day. You're doing typical real estate salesman crap. That's a shame because you're knowledgeable about Williamsburg, but if you keep up with the real estate sales numbers facade, your credibility is going to weaken.

[Mr Williamsburg]

I don't like to quote stats as you have to be certain where the data is coming from when you compare. I also don't pay as much attention to one month periods and look for longer term trends.

The stats I would trust the most are from our association. Here is a link to a 10 page in depth report from April . It is generated about 15 days after the month ends. I will post May as soon as its generated.


As an FYI here is the listing as it appeared in our MLS.



You can see the erroneous zip code shown. Some idiot didn't catch it when it was entered. We recently changed MLS's systems and there are numerous other errors in the data.

I ran the reports a few different ways so they shouldn't be compared to one another. One was by zip code, one was by locality. The zip code should be the most accurate. We consider the 23188,23185 and 23168 zips as the Williamsburg VA market. Using York County, City of Williamsburg and James City County also include the Yorktown market which is a separate market ( and super hot right now)

Certain markets in Williamsburg are still severely depressed. Upper end ($850k+) sales are suffering from WAY too much inventory. Building lots are starting to stabilize but prices are 2/3 what they were at the peak.

[citydock]

Mr. Williamsburg, you wrote: Certain markets in Williamsburg are still severely depressed. Upper end ($850k+) sales are suffering from WAY too much inventory. Building lots are starting to stabilize but prices are 2/3 what they were at the peak.

Can you elaborate? We are just starting to help our parents sell a house in Fords Colony in the 800k+ range - When I look at the neighborhood history, I'm seeing so many houses that took forever to sell with multiple price drops, and very few that sold quickly or sold at asking.

When you say 2/3 from the peak - when was the peak?

Your knowledge is so valuable - thanks in advance. Rebecca