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OK, forget Forsyth/Winston-Salem because I don't want to get into the perpetual GSO vs. W-S pissing contest, which is where it looks you're itching to go. That wasn't even my main point. And it's funny you refer to Winston-Salem as a "johnny-come-lately" when it used to be the state's largest city at one point and its banking industry was at one time on par with Charlotte's, maybe even larger.
At any rate, a more diverse economic focus may cause Guilford to grow faster over the next 20 years, but it's not going to frickin' triple its growth rate in a mere seven years and have that rate sustained over the next decade as well. It's not happening, bruh. Just be happy with Greensboro's current status as a midsized metro with a healthy growth rate or go ahead and move to Charlotte, Raleigh, Atlanta, DC, etc. and enjoy all that a truly large metro that's experiencing breakneck growth has to offer.
And maybe you're not aware, but many of the fastest-growing metros aren't those trying to be a "jack of all trades, master of none," but those that have mastered one thing very, very well and have allowed supporting industries to grow up around that--Charlotte and banking, the Triangle and biotech/high tech, Austin and high tech, Houston and energy, Atlanta and logistics/transportation, etc. It may very well be that by diffusing its efforts among several different sectors, Greensboro is also diluting its potential for higher growth in the future.
I didn't say Greensboro was going to grow much faster in seven years. I said in about 20 years which is a conservative number. A city/county government can't put all its eggs in one basket by focusing on just one or two industries. Thats why the Triad experienced massive job loss to begin with. Decades ago Greensboro focused on textiles. Look what happened when most of those textile jobs went to Mexico and Asia. Having a diverse economy is not diluting the potential for growth, it makes the city stronger. But Trying to be another Atlanta, Charlotte or Raleigh/Durham is not going to make a city grow faster. Those cities are already hubs in biotech and finance. This is why Guilford is taking a diverse approach. Charlotte has taken a risk because what happens if it big banks pack up and move to New York?
I didn't say Greensboro was going to grow much faster in seven years. I said in about 20 years which is a conservative number.
The math goes like this: Guilford County has to increase its growth rate to 43%-44% in seven years to finish out this decade, then have it sustained over the next decade in order to add another 500K people in 20 years (I'm using the official 2010 Census numbers as the starting point). And you say 20 years is a "conservative" number? Heck no. It's simply not going to happen, especially with Charlotte and the Triangle, larger metros that offer more and aren't anywhere close to peaking, so close by.
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A city/county government can't put all its eggs in one basket by focusing on just one or two industries. Thats why the Triad experienced massive job loss to begin with. Decades ago Greensboro focused on textiles. Look what happened when most of those textile jobs went to Mexico and Asia.
It's pretty much a proven strategy that initially throwing all your weight behind a select industry or two that represents a strength of a city is going to result in faster growth; that's been the case for all the metros I've mentioned. And it may very well be that the aforementioned metros will crash and burn in the near future, but that doesn't negate the very rapid growth being experienced in the near-term.
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Having a diverse economy is not diluting the potential for growth, it makes the city stronger.
Stronger and faster aren't the same thing. Right now, some of the slowest-growing metros are some of the healthiest, whereas some of the fastest-growing aren't. At any rate, I think the focus of Greensboro's city leaders isn't to try and grow as fast as Charlotte or Raleigh and certainly not to add half a million people in 20 years, but to grow in terms of quality. That's the better strategy. As I said, it just may result in faster growth, but not a tripled growth rate in seven years and sustained over the next decade. That won't happen.
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Charlotte has taken a risk because what happens if it big banks pack up and move to New York?
I assume you're referring to BOA. It would only be a move in name only for the most part, with maybe a few hundred jobs moving there. Charlotte has matured as a banking center to the point where the banking infrastructure is very highly developed, so it will remain a center for significant banking operations regardless. The banking industry acted as a rocket booster of sorts for Charlotte; it got it into orbit but now it has enough economic momentum to sustain itself and attract companies in a wider range of industries. This is why, despite not having a Lincoln Financial, Charlotte was able to land over 1,000 MetLife jobs recently. However, trying to specialize in a bunch of things at one time will take a city a longer time to experience very high levels of growth from the outset because the workforce and infrastructure in each industry will just be average/adequate at best for a while.
The math goes like this: Guilford County has to increase its growth rate to 43%-44% in seven years to finish out this decade, then have it sustained over the next decade in order to add another 500K people in 20 years (I'm using the official 2010 Census numbers as the starting point). And you say 20 years is a "conservative" number? Heck no. It's simply not going to happen, especially with Charlotte and the Triangle, larger metros that offer more and aren't anywhere close to peaking, so close by.
It's pretty much a proven strategy that initially throwing all your weight behind a select industry or two that represents a strength of a city is going to result in faster growth; that's been the case for all the metros I've mentioned. And it may very well be that the aforementioned metros will crash and burn in the near future, but that doesn't negate the very rapid growth being experienced in the near-term.
Stronger and faster aren't the same thing. Right now, some of the slowest-growing metros are some of the healthiest, whereas some of the fastest-growing aren't. At any rate, I think the focus of Greensboro's city leaders isn't to try and grow as fast as Charlotte or Raleigh and certainly not to add half a million people in 20 years, but to grow in terms of quality. That's the better strategy. As I said, it just may result in faster growth, but not a tripled growth rate in seven years and sustained over the next decade. That won't happen.
If you base the growth rate over the past 10 or 20 years then no it wont happen. What I'm looking at are the next 20 years when you factor in economic projects like FedEx Hub, G.U.R.P, HondaJet, Lenovo, downtown initiatives, ect.
Would you rather for a city to crash and burn after a stint of growth or would you rather for a city to have sustainable growth by having a more diverse economy? Greensboro crashed and burned as a textile manufacturing hub. Times change, technology and our way of life will change. In 30 years, research parks as we know it could become obsolete. Being a financial center is also risky. A city just shouldn't focus on one industry.
If you base the growth rate over the past 10 or 20 years then no it wont happen. What I'm looking at are the next 20 years when you factor in the FedEx Hub, G.U.R.P, HondaJet ect.
But what's so special about a distribution hub, a research park (which is a dime a dozen these days), and an aviation manufacturer that will cause Guilford County's growth rate to skyrocket astronomically over the course of 20 years? Do you not know how many other counties out there have similar developments and aren't anywhere close to experiencing breakneck growth? The Columbia, SC area is home to the UPS Southeastern Regional hub, the Innovista research park, several banks and insurance companies, an Amazon distribution center, a large regional energy company, state government, a new pharmaceutical manufacturing development, lots of new downtown developments (e.g., Mast General, Urban Outfitters, etc.), etc. and faces less regional competition than Greensboro does, yet its core county isn't coming close to adding half a million people in 20 years. Charleston County is home to the massive Boeing plant, the Medical University of South Carolina and its related research efforts, new defense contracting companies, a Google data center (which is preparing to undergo an expansion worth over half a billion dollars), a cruise port, the densest and most developed downtown in the Carolinas, etc., and it's also nowhere close to adding 500K people over the next 20 years. I know we're all rooting for our places of residence to succeed, but I fail to see why you think Guilford County is such an exception to the rule and is going to spectacularly break away from the pack and run away with the prize.
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Would you rather for a city to crash and burn after a stint of growth or would you rather for a city to have sustainable growth by having a more diverse economy?
If you're implying that Greensboro's strategy is the latter, then you ought to know that 43%-44% decennial growth isn't sustainable.
But what's so special about a distribution hub, a research park (which is a dime a dozen these days), and an aviation manufacturer that will cause Guilford County's growth rate to skyrocket astronomically over the course of 20 years? Do you not know how many other counties out there have similar developments and aren't anywhere close to experiencing breakneck growth? The Columbia, SC area is home to the UPS Southeastern Regional hub, the Innovista research park, several banks and insurance companies, an Amazon distribution center, a large regional energy company, state government, a new pharmaceutical manufacturing development, etc. and faces less regional competition than Greensboro does, yet its core county isn't coming close to adding half a million people in 20 years. Charleston County is home to the massive Boeing plant, the Medical University of South Carolina and its related research efforts, new defense contracting companies, a Google data center (which is preparing to undergo an expansion worth over half a billion dollars), a cruise port, etc., and it's also nowhere close to adding 500K people over the next 20 years. I know we're all rooting for our places of residence to succeed, but I fail to see why you think Guilford County is such an exception to the rule and is going to spectacularly break away from the pack and run away with the prize.
If you're implying that Greensboro's strategy is the latter, then you ought to know that 43%-44% decennial growth isn't sustainable.
Greensboro has a unique opportunity being a major logistics and distribution hub because of the city's location and it's interstate network. Greensboro has a more strategic location than Columbia, SC. Whats so important about it? Well having air cargo hubs like FedEx is attractive to manufacturing companies because of the shorter time to ship out products over night. But its not just about being a distribution hub its the combination of being a distribution hub, an aviation hub, an educational hub, a technology/research area and high-tech manufacturing area. Think about it. Having technology research going on in Greensboro with a FedEx hub is going to make Greensboro very attractive to companies like Lenovo which is getting ready to manufacture computers and tablets in Guilford County. Also Greensboro based RF Micro Devices which has a plant in Greensboro and is colaborating with G.U.R.P. That same research and distribution base strengthens the aviation industry which translates to high paying jobs in that sector. A strong aviation sector could eventually lead to Aerospace. Remember this is about jobs and lots of the and that's what grows a city. One research park is not the silver bullet.
Who cares how many more people live there than in Forsyth. Here in Charlotte, more people, more cars and more whatever only causes more problems. No body cares that Guilford has a glass half full.
Last edited by SunnyKayak; 03-16-2013 at 03:24 PM..
Greensboro has a unique opportunity being a major logistics and distribution hub because of the city's locations and it interstate. Greensboro has a more strategic location than Columbia, SC. Whats so important about it? Well having air cargo hubs like FedEx as attractive for manufacturing companies because of the shorter time to ship out products. But its not just about being a distribution hub its the combination of being a distribution hub, an aviation hub, an educational hub, a technology/research area and high-tech manufacturing area. Think about it having technology research going on in Greensboro with a FedEx hub is going to make Greensboro very attractive of companies like Lenovo which is getting ready to manufacture computers and tablets in Guilford County.
I think you're overstating the importance of Greensboro's location just a tad and conversely understating Columbia's. Columbia has three primary interstates, is roughly equidistant between Miami and NYC, and, more importantly, is a good bit closer to I-95 and two of the busiest seaports on the East Coast, Charleston and Savannah. So even if Greensboro's location is more strategic than Columbia's, it isn't by a wide margin, and Columbia has other strengths that Greensboro doesn't. And I fail to see how any sort of combination of the factors you're talking about is going to cause Guilford County to hit 44% growth and have it sustained over 20 years. Greensboro is not going to become a "hub" of all of those sectors in 20 years, especially if it's focusing on all of them at once.
I think you really fail to understand how SIGNIFICANTLY tall of an order going from 16% decennial growth all the way to 44% growth for two decades straight is--I mean no intermediate steps at all, going from 0 to 100mph in 6.3 seconds. I'm sorry man, but that's not going to happen in Guilford County. You're chasing windmills on this one.
Who cares how many more people live there than in Forsyth. Here in Charlotte, more people, more cars and more whatever only causes more problems. No body cares that Guilford has a glass half full.
I really have to say that expecting Guilford to reach a million people in 20 years is definitely highly delusional. I'll even be generous and say that I may see it in my lifetime (I'm in my early 30's), but I will definitely have been retired and collecting Social Security for a couple of years at that point, God willing.
This is just taking boosterism to unprecedented levels.
Last edited by SunnyKayak; 03-16-2013 at 03:26 PM..
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I think you're overstating the importance of Greensboro's location just a tad and conversely understating Columbia's. Columbia has three primary interstates, is roughly equidistant between Miami and NYC, and, more importantly, is a good bit closer to I-95 and two of the busiest seaports on the East Coast, Charleston and Savannah. So even if Greensboro's location is more strategic than Columbia's, it isn't by a wide margin, and Columbia has other strengths that Greensboro doesn't. And I fail to see how any sort of combination of the factors you're talking about is going to cause Guilford County to hit 44% growth and have it sustained over 20 years. Greensboro is not going to become a "hub" of all of those sectors in 20 years, especially if it's focusing on all of them at once.
I think you really fail to understand how SIGNIFICANTLY tall of an order going from 16% decennial growth all the way to 44% growth for two decades straight is--I mean no intermediate steps at all, going from 0 to 100mph in 6.3 seconds. I'm sorry man, but that's not going to happen in Guilford County. You're chasing windmills on this one.
Greensboro is located on the hot sunbelt I-85 corridor. The city is at the crossroads of three major interstates. I-40 goes all the way to California, I-73/74 will eventually directly connect Greensboro with Michigan and Ohio and Greensboro is halfway between Atlanta and Washington DC and Charlotte and Raleigh. Why do you think FedEx chose Greensboro over Columbia for its air cargo hub?
A lot can happen in 20 years but I think it will take longer before the area is no longer recognizable as Greensboro as we know it today. Still its possible Guilford could hit one million in 20 years.
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