Alternate history: How would the early 21st century been different had 9/11 not happened? (Putin, Iran)

[bawac34618]

We are fast approaching 2020 which means were will soon be two decades into the 21st century. Looking back over American history since 2000, what do you think would have been different had 9/11 not occurred? What would have been the same?

Here are things I think would have been different.

-No Patriot Act, no war in Iraq
-Bush would have been a one-term President and Howard Dean would have won in 2004
-Islamophobia would have remained at pre-9/11 levels (nothing like it is today or has been since the attacks).
-Gay marriage, DADT repeal both would have happened between 3-5 years sooner
-Polarization between liberals and conservatives would not be quite as deep as it is today
-Television wouldn't have been dominated by serial dramas dealing with terrorism during the 2000s (think Kiefer Sutherland's "24").

Here are things I think would have remained the same

-The Great Recession. Though with Dean in office between 2004 and 2008 things might have been put into place sooner causing the recession to be more mild, there was no avoiding that downtown being that it was the result of decades of excess dating as far back as the Reagan years.
-Pop music/movies; Other than in 2002 and early 2003, pop culture wasn't affected by 9/11 as much as other areas of society, with the exception of serial dramas which I mentioned above.
-Social media bubbles; Following the advent of social media, there was really no way to prevent the polarization and sorting of the population that is currently underway as a result.

What are your thoughts?

[Dd714]

- Iraq War - As was discussed in another recent thread, Military action to remove Saddam was inevitable as established by 1998's "Iraq Liberation Act" signed by Clinton. After that, it was just a matter of time. If it wasn't 9/11, it would have been another political trigger. 3 years later, 5 years later...Opinion - delayed impact.
- Howard Dean - One would have to see an alternative scenario without the "Dean Scream". Actually, without the war in 2004 Bush would have likely won with a greater margin. Opinion - reverse impact.
- Recession - as much as we insert politics, recessions are cyclical. They are not the results of "decades of excess" necessarily (unless you define that as trade imbalances and lax lending standards) but that's a subject for another topic. 9/11 wasn't really that relevant. Opinion - very little impact.
- Political polarization - On the contrary, 9/11 brought the parties and nation together, at least temporarily. Didn't take long for those warm feelings to fade however. Opinion - no impact.
-Pop music/movies - As a general rule, people don't like entertainment to include topics covering subjects such as wars and disasters. Entertainment is escapist as a rule. There are notable exceptions - "24" as was mentioned, and some well made movies. Pop music continues to suck. Opinion - little impact.

Everything else I sort of agree with. Islamaphobia I would actually say is greater.

Edit: You left out the biggest difference - the focus on security in every day life. You mentioned the Patriot Act of course but not the visible changes from airport screening (TSA) to xray machines and physical searches being an every day component of life while entering crowded public places such as amusement parks and stadiums.

[adriver]

Originally Posted by bawac34618

We are fast approaching 2020 which means were will soon be two decades into the 21st century. Looking back over American history since 2000, what do you think would have been different had 9/11 not occurred? What would have been the same?

Here are things I think would have been different.

-Gay marriage, DADT repeal both would have happened between 3-5 years sooner

What are your thoughts?

This is the only one I will disagree with. I may be missing something, but I thought one of the biggest reasons being gay became so open and accepted was when the military allowed openly gay troops to serve. It seemed like it was out of necessity to get recruiting numbers up so they could go to the middle east. I think that is one thing that was teetering on the verge of being accepted, and that kind of helped put it over the edge of acceptable, (well if the military is going to allow it.... ). IF I'M NOT MISSING SOMETHING, It probably still would have happened but I think it would have been a few years later. Then if it would have happened to still be a controversial issue as recent as the start of this election process, and Trump is running......


I do think it also inspired a TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF PATRIOTISM.

[Escondudo]

If 9/11 hadn't happened, there would have been another large scale attack within the next few years. Remember, the intelligence report was entitled "Bin Laden determined to strike in US." So I imagine, the same things would have occurred, but they would have been slightly delayed. Afghanistan and Iraq would have still happened. The timeline realigns with the 2008 election.

[J Baustian]

Originally Posted by bawac34618

Here are things I think would have been different.

-No Patriot Act, no war in Iraq
-Bush would have been a one-term President and Howard Dean would have won in 2004

I disagree. If no al-Qaeda attack on the US, it's still likely that they would have attacked the US and our allies elsewhere. We would have responded militarily, but it would have been more limited -- no multi-division ground assault like in Iraq. Support for a response like that would have been bipartisan. The most-rabid Bush haters would not have had a target like the Iraq War.

Bush would have had a chance to get his domestic agenda passed. So I think he would have been reelected. In fact I don't think he would have faced a significant opponent in 2004.

-Polarization between liberals and conservatives would not be quite as deep as it is today

That is part of the reason why I think President Bush would have been elected. He actually could have been "a uniter, not a divider."

Here are things I think would have remained the same

-The Great Recession. Though with Dean in office between 2004 and 2008 things might have been put into place sooner causing the recession to be more mild, there was no avoiding that downtown being that it was the result of decades of excess dating as far back as the Reagan years.

The real estate bubble didn't really get cranked up until after 2002 or 2003 (though FRB Chairman Alan Greenspan had warned about "irrational exuberance" several years earlier). Bush had tried to toughen lending standards, but was blocked by Democrats (and they still want easy mortgage lending, despite the bad experience).

In a less-partisan environment, maybe the real estate bubble could have been prevented, or at least ameliorated.

[ukrkoz]

Nothing would have been different. Another false flag operation would have been done to execute what was pre-planned. I bet they had several in works.

[Rescue3]

Al-Qaeda's 'second wave' of attacks was actually in the works for the summer of 2002. The targets were Seattle, Chicago and LA. What kept them from happening was the US invasion of Afghanistan and the shattering of AQ's safe zone in November 2001. So if 9/11 had not occurred, we certainly would not have invaded Afghanistan, would not have rattled AQ's tree and the second wave would have taken place. (Then we would have invaded Afghanistan.)

Iraq was going to get invaded. When Saddam sent his squad of operatives to Kuwait to assassinate George H.W. Bush, he sealed his fate. Before that, Saddam had engaged in an active disinformation campaign to make Iran think he had WMD. Problem is, Bush (and the Brits) fell for it, so they had a cause they could march out before the UN Security Counsel.

The rise of Islamism (political Islam) actually started in 1979 in Iran. They (re-)invented the concept of 'dying for your religion makes you a martyr so you go straight to heaven,' which incentivized the young and the dumb to give their lives to fighting 'crusaders.' The Taliban was doing well with it in the late 1980s in Afghanistan. What the invasion of Iraq did was create a large ungoverned space in the middle of the Middle East where everyone who wanted to die for their religion could go fight the coalition forces. What the abandonment of Iraq in 2010 did was it allowed the nation to come apart at the seams, a circumstance every good terrorist leader wants to take advantage of. Al-Baghdadi did just that, with what we know call ISIS.

I kinda' think all else would have remained roughly the same.

[Italian (x)lurker]

Probably relations between Russia and America would have deteriorated earlier
post 9/11 era represented a temporary "unity of all against terrorism" time that postponed the new cold war between the West and Putin.
Things happening now would have happened 10 years earlier or something like this...

[craigiri]

GWB and Cheney and the Pentagon were gonna drum up something. You can bet your bottom dollar that too much time cannot be allowed to go by without:
1. Exposing millions of our young people to violence
2. Testing all the newest gadgets
3. Instilling fear into the populace - fear which serves many purposes, including the separation of $$ from the lower and middle classes and moving it to the corporations and upper class.

Now - GWB was too clueless to even consider these things.....but when we have POTUS'es that cannot think, there are always plenty of others in their admins who are willing to do the thinking for them.

It might be tempting to think of 9/11 as some kind of off-the-charts anomaly. But then.....what was the selection of GWB by the SCOTUS? What was the Great Recession? What was the Comey and Russian details in the recent election?

Sad to say...there ain't much left of good ole America. As George Carlin noted....it's a big Club and you ain't in it.

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by Escondudo

If 9/11 hadn't happened, there would have been another large scale attack within the next few years. Remember, the intelligence report was entitled "Bin Laden determined to strike in US." So I imagine, the same things would have occurred, but they would have been slightly delayed. Afghanistan and Iraq would have still happened. The timeline realigns with the 2008 election.

Originally Posted by J Baustian

I disagree. If no al-Qaeda attack on the US, it's still likely that they would have attacked the US and our allies elsewhere. We would have responded militarily, but it would have been more limited -- no multi-division ground assault like in Iraq. Support for a response like that would have been bipartisan. The most-rabid Bush haters would not have had a target like the Iraq War.

Quite true on both.

Originally Posted by J Baustian

The real estate bubble didn't really get cranked up until after 2002 or 2003 (though FRB Chairman Alan Greenspan had warned about "irrational exuberance" several years earlier). Bush had tried to toughen lending standards, but was blocked by Democrats (and they still want easy mortgage lending, despite the bad experience).

In a less-partisan environment, maybe the real estate bubble could have been prevented, or at least ameliorated.

The real estate bubbler's enablers were bi-partisan. Increases in global trade kept inflation in check. The burgeoning money supply had to go somewhere.