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Interesting article. He makes all the valid points that would lead to the conclusion that Nord Stream should be completed, especially as it's close to completion, but inexplicably takes the opposite stand.
The decree establishes that retaking Crimea from Russia is now Kiev’s official policy. That’s exactly what prompted an array of Ukrainian battle tanks to be shipped east on flatbed rail cars, following the saturation of the Ukrainian army by the US with military equipment including unmanned aerial vehicles, electronic warfare systems, anti-tank systems and man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).
More crucially, the Zelensky decree is the proof any subsequent war will have been prompted by Kiev, debunking the proverbial claims of “Russian aggression.” Crimea, since the referendum of March 2014, is part of the Russian Federation.
It was this (italics mine) de facto declaration of war, which Moscow took very seriously, that prompted the deployment of extra Russian forces to Crimea and closer to the Russian border with Donbass. Significantly, these include the crack 76th Guards Air Assault Brigade, known as the Pskov paratroopers and, according to an intel report quoted to me, capable of taking Ukraine in only six hours.
It certainly does not help that in early April US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, fresh from his former position as a board member of missile manufacturer Raytheon, called Zelensky to promise “unwavering US support for Ukraine’s sovereignty.” That ties in with Moscow’s interpretation that Zelensky would never have signed his decree without a green light from Washington.
Andrey Minin, a director of a Nord Stream 2 regional subsidiary in north-west Russia, told Moscow news wire Interfax that Russian supporting vessels had fended off attacks on operations at the Gazprom-led project from an unidentified submarine and a Polish fishing trawler.
Minin claimed the goal of the alleged attacks was the Russian pipelay barge Fortuna that is currently laying a subsea segment of Nord Stream 2 to the south of Bornholm Island in Denmark's stretch of the sea area.
The country is in shambles, Covid is raging there in such way that they don't refer to it as a "second or third wave" any longer, but tzunami.
Every professional in the Eastern part of Ukraine that I've heard so far, is saying that there has never been such inept and unqualified group of people in charge of the country as the one that rules it now.
So of course what Zelensky needs is a "quick successful offensive" - be that Donbass or Crimea.
With other words, it's the kind of actions/thinking that Putin was accused of.
When I think about Crimea in particular and Zelensky's fixation on it...
...and then when Sharij is exposing them for what/who they are in the European Union, they start howling "No we are the "freedom fighters," it's all "Russian propaganda" and smear campaign against our freedom-loving people. "
There is literally nothing that the US can do to stop it if Russia and Germany hold firm (Germany is the weak link) short of sending warships in the Baltic sea....
There is literally nothing that the US can do to stop it if Russia and Germany hold firm (Germany is the weak link) short of sending warships in the Baltic sea....
Working on Germany is the plan, I think. It really depends on how badly the US wants to stop it, and how much money they are prepared to spend to do it. Biden did say a couple of weeks ago that Putin would soon be in for a rude awakening, for past transgressions.
The country is in shambles, Covid is raging there in such way that they don't refer to it as a "second or third wave" any longer, but tzunami.
Every professional in the Eastern part of Ukraine that I've heard so far, is saying that there has never been such inept and unqualified group of people in charge of the country as the one that rules it now.
So of course what Zelensky needs is a "quick successful offensive" - be that Donbass or Crimea.
With other words, it's the kind of actions/thinking that Putin was accused of.
When I think about Crimea in particular and Zelensky's fixation on it...
Did I mention "bleating idiots"?
I think I did.
Russia has roughly 50 tactical brigades aimed at Ukraine. These are just the mechanized land forces. It does not include air and naval assets or the tactical battlefield missile regiments or kitchen sinks in the storage depots.
3 weeks and Ukraine is cut in half and Ukrainians are partying in the streets of Kiev. 3 weeks.
There is no offensive being considered against Crimea. They don't even care to get it back, its a destitute backwater. They have to pretend to care for political reasons... I know plenty of Crimeans and where they stand on this. All they want is a settlement so their area can stop being isolated from much of the world. It is doable, but it seems Russia wants to keep attacking Ukraine as long as it remains aligned with the West. So no dice anytime soon. Crimea and Donbas are both easily fixable.
One thing Russians have a particularly hard time understanding is how private vs government interests work in the West. They believe we are run the same way they are, and its simply not true. The German government isn't a party to this pipeline deal. When they speak in support of it, they are supporting the interests of their private companies involved, as is their job. Even if the German government came out against this, it would be hard to overturn international agreements already set in stone. Germany has to follow their own laws.
That said, it may rise to a national security issue and then they can do it. So far, the main German party against the pipeline is the Greens. They may win the next election, so that's it for NS2. Another trap is if Russia decides to send its army into Ukraine at all. That would be the end of NS2 (in fact its a reason to keep NS2 going, as deterrence).
NS2 isn't that important to Europe either. As much as Russian media want to present this as life or death for Germany, there are sufficient energy supplies to Europe currently and no uptick in gas consumption is inevitable. LNG is sufficiently available so this is only about buying gas for cheap, not the question of gas or no gas. As renewables become more desirable there are many planning to go straight from coal to green energy, bypassing gas as the transition fuel. Without the need for gas fired electricity, Europe doesn't need NS2. In fact Europe will probably continue to decline as a consumer of Russian gas either way as Poland will end their contract with Gazprom next year.
The real issue is that the US loses face because it's invested so much in stopping the pipeline.
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