Last Gallup Poll measurement prior to debate (polls, president, Obama)
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For those who care, find attached the last poll from Gallup prior to the debate. You can measure the up or down for each candidate over the next few days by comparing it to todays poll results. Gallup Daily: Obama Holds 5-Point Lead
Will the debate as measured by this daily poll show movement for either candidate or will it remain as is?
Sorry tuborg, you'll have to wait til about tuesday to get full impact of debate. Same with Rasmussen and the other tracking polls that use a rolling average.
Sorry tuborg, you'll have to wait til about tuesday to get full impact of debate. Same with Rasmussen and the other tracking polls that use a rolling average.
3-day rolling average.
Hmmmm isn't that what I said and what the link says? Lets see what does a rolling average mean. Three days averaged together! In this case Wed, Thurs, Friday (before debate) which is what the link says. Now tomorrow we take out Wednesday and add in Saturday. Saturday now starts a 1/3 weight with the debate included. Thus the trend starts and will be a full three days by Tuesday for full impact. Thus that is why the poll today is the last pre debate poll as I said. Any future polls will be weighted with todays numbers which are post debate. So why use the words sorry? We are in agreement and anyone who can read will see that. TODAYS poll is the benchmark for measurement as it is the last one not including meaningful post debate measurement.
So what days poll were you going to use as a base to begin measuring against?
Hmmmm isn't that what I said and what the link says? Lets see what does a rolling average mean. Three days averaged together! In this case Wed, Thurs, Friday (before debate) which is what the link says. Now tomorrow we take out Wednesday and add in Saturday. Saturday now starts a 1/3 weight with the debate included. Thus the trend starts and will be a full three days by Tuesday for full impact. Thus that is why the poll today is the last pre debate poll as I said. Any future polls will be weighted with todays numbers which are post debate. So why use the words sorry? We are in agreement and anyone who can read will see that. TODAYS poll is the benchmark for measurement as it is the last one not including meaningful post debate measurement.
So what days poll were you going to use as a base to begin measuring against?
Sanrene doesn't read linked articles. She's notorious for not doing so, and has even proven herself wrong multiple times on this forum, by posting links that refute whatever point she was atempting to make. It's generally easier to just ignore what she says, so that it doesn't waste your time.
Your formula for determining the impact of the debate on poll numbers is a good one. Sanrene just either didn't read what you wrote (or linked), or she didn't comprehend it.
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